grani, cereali, oleacei, oli e panelli

Dec 20  - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec-Sich @206$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan 208$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @377.5$
Crop 2025
· SOYA NE-GMO ISCC DAP PN-SH. Italy, Oct-Dec ...
· soya NE-GMO ISCC FCA border of Ukraine, Oct-Dec ...

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in the period from 1 to 18 December amounted to: corn - 1 282 thousand tons, wheat - 381.2 thousand tons, barley - 82.5 thousand tons, soybeans 215.6 - thousand tons, rape - 100.6 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.73 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 228.3 thousand tons, soybean oil - 17.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 274 thousand tons.

- Europe
· According to the December MARS report, grain fields in Europe are mostly in good condition after a favorable period that helped recover from the wet autumn. In Western Europe, the sowing was completed, and in the Central and Northern regions, moderate cold was not harmed by crops, ensuring a sufficient supply of moisture. Crops near the Black Sea remain vulnerable to winter conditions.
· In 2025, French farmers plan to sow 4.51 million hectares of winter wheat, which is 8.7% more compared to the area collected this year, but 0.8% less than the average for 5 years.

- CORN
The market enters the stage of rest before the holidays. Over the past week, prices in Ukrainian ports have increased by another 3$. In the EU market, demand remains stable, although customer activity decreases due to New Year holidays and holiday period.
It is worth noting that the pace of corn exports from Ukraine remains restrained, which raises questions about the sufficiency of proposals from producers. At the same time, this creates conditions for accumulating sentences that are likely to be implemented in later periods.

- WHEAT
World demand for wheat is gradually recovering, which leads to higher prices.
Wheat prices in Ukrainian ports show a slight increase, although trade activity remains low.
At present, there is a high activity of processing plants that actively buy food wheat.

- SUNFLOWER
Falling export prices for sunflower and sunflower oil reduces the marginality of processing enterprises, which complicates the work of Ukrainian plants, which are oriented both on domestic and foreign demand. This forces them to reduce the purchase prices of raw materials. Manufacturers, in turn, restrain the sales of sunflower, especially with a high oil content.
Sunflower oil in the spot market for a week decreased to 1050-1070$ CPT port.

- SOYA
The Ukrainian soybean market demonstrates different trends. Soybeans prices in ports are declining due to low activity of exporters and high competition in the world market. At the same time, processing enterprises still keep prices because of good demand and limited supply in the market.

- RAPESEED
Prices for rapeseed on the MATIF exchange have undergone significant fluctuations. After a sharp rise last week, this week they are down by more than 20€ on near futures. Despite price fluctuations, buyers continue to contract Australian and Canadian rapeseed, which indicates a stable demand for oilseed crops.

Dec 20 - China's state importer books US soy purchases as tariff threat looms
China's Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said. China is the world's top soy buyer and a crucial market for both U.S. and Brazilian farmers, who supply the bulk of China's imports. 

Dec 19 - French wheat export forecast cut to lowest in decades
Farm office France AgriMer on Wednesday slashed its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to the lowest since the start of the century, reflecting a dearth of demand from North Africa and China. A poor harvest, with the lowest volumes since the 1980s and mixed grain quality, had been widely expected to squeeze French wheat exports in 2024/25, but they have been further stifled by stiff competition from Russia and a lull in Chinese imports.

Dec 19 - Ukraine exported 6.0 mln metric tons of grain via Romania's Constanta in Jan-Nov24
Ukraine's grain exports through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta in the first 11 months were down by 54% from a year earlier to 6.0 million metric tons, the port authority said. The drop reflects Kyiv's reliance on its own ports despite Russian attacks on shipping and infrastructure though Constanta remains Ukraine's main alternative export route for grains since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

 

Dec 19 - China to promote modernization of farms in pledge to stabilise grain output
China will accelerate the pace of agricultural and rural modernization and stabilise grain planting area in its quest to ensure stable and high production of grains, state media reported on Wednesday, citing an annual rural policy meeting. The world's biggest grains producer announced record grains production of 706.5 million metric tons this year, including 294.92 million tons of corn.  

Dec 19 - US suffers first severe human case of bird flu; California declares emergency
The U.S. reported its first severe human case of bird flu on Wednesday in a Louisiana resident who is hospitalized in critical condition after suspected contact with an infected backyard flock. California, the most populous state, declared an emergency over the H5N1 virus as it spread more widely in dairy herds and after it has infected dozens of farm workers this year.

Dec 18 - Malaysia hopes palm oil industry can be compliant with EU law when grace period ends
Malaysia hopes its palm oil industry will be fully compliant with the European Union's anti-deforestation policy before a newly agreed deadline, its commodities minister said. The European Parliament approved on Tuesday a one-year delay on implementation of its landmark deforestation law, which bans the importation of palm oil, soy and other goods linked to the destruction of forests from Dec. 30 next year. 

Dec 18 - French wheat area to rebound but stay below average, farm ministry says
France's main wheat crop will regain area for next year's harvest after a dry end to autumn averted a repeat of rain-hit sowing a year ago, though planting remained below the average of recent years, the farm ministry said. Farmers in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, are expected to sow 4.51 million hectares of winter soft wheat for next year, up 8.7% compared with the area harvested this year but 0.8% lower than the average of the past five years, the ministry said in its first estimates for 2025.

Dec 18 - South Korea’s FLC buys about 66,000 T corn, traders say
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. The corn was purchased at an estimated $235.99 a ton cost and freight included plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading, they said.

Dec 17 - EU crops in fair shape but Black Sea rim lacks winter strength, monitor saysCereal fields in Europe are generally in good condition after a dry, mild spell helped them recover from a soggy start to autumn, though grain belts around the Black Sea are lacking hardiness for winter, the EU's crop monitoring service said on Monday. Echoing comments from its November report, the MARS service said in its December update that drier weather allowed farmers to wrap up sowing in western Europe despite delays. 

Dec 17 - NOPA November US soybean crush dips to 193.185 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush declined in November from an all-time high a month earlier and fell short of most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for about 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 193.185 million bushels of the oilseed last month, below the average estimate of 196.713 million bushels in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. 

Dec 16 - Limited sunflower supply in Ukraine restrained significant sunflower price adjustments (APK-Inform)During last week, prices in the Ukrainian sunflower market moved in different directions, but no significant price adjustments have been observed so far.Thus, prices for sunflower oil continued to decline, while the supply of sunflower remained extremely limited, which did not allow processors to significantly reduce purchase prices.In a number of cases companies reduced demand prices by 200 UAH/t on average, but in fact continued to purchase raw materials at prices in the previously formed range - from 25000 UAH/t CPT and higher. Also, many processors were ready to pay extra for large volumes of oilseed and quick delivery.Note that the rate of sunflower oil exports since the beginning of December decreased by 19% against November, amounting to 165 thousand tonnes (as of 12.12).

Dec 16 - Ukraine exported just over 1 mln tonnes of grain in the first half of December (APK-Inform)
According to operational data of the State Customs Service, as of December 16, Ukraine has exported 19.51 mln tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 1.135 tonnes have been shipped since the beginning of the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reported.
At the same time, as of December 20 last year, total shipments amounted to 16.013 mln tonnes, including 2.917 mln tonnes in December.

In particular, since the beginning of the current season exported:
- wheat - 9.207 mln tonnes (in MY 2023/24 - 6.723 mln tonnes);
- barley - 1.899 mln tonnes (946 thousand tons);
- rye - 10.8 thousand tons (1 thousand tons);
- corn - 8.084 mln tonnes (8.206 mln tonnes).

Dec 16 - Soybeans in Ukraine cheapen for the sixth week in a row (APK-Inform)
According to the monitoring data of the APK-Inform news agency, soybeans in Ukraine have become cheaper for the sixth week in a row. This situation is due to a sufficient amount of beans on the market and formed stocks of raw materials at processors since the beginning of the season.

As of the beginning of the day on December 16, the demand prices for soybeans (GM) are voiced, as a rule, in the range of 16700-17000 UAH/t CPT, which is lower than the prices voiced in early November by 1200-1400 UAH/t.

Dec 16 - India's rice stocks surge to record high, boosting export prospects
Rice inventories in India surged to a record high at the start of December, reaching more than five times the government's target and potentially boosting overseas shipments from the world's biggest exporter of the staple food. Rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, in state granaries totalled 44.1 million metric tons on Dec. 1 against a government target of 7.6 million tons, data compiled by the Food Corporation of India showed. 

Dec 16 - Funds fortify bullish corn bets after USDA's supply slashing: Braun
Speculators last month turned optimistic toward Chicago-traded corn for the first time in more than a year as U.S. exporters were posting jaw-dropping sales volumes. In fact, U.S. corn demand has been so good that it forced the U.S. Department of Agriculture last Tuesday to slash its U.S. corn carryout estimate by 10%.

Dec 13 - Russia bans sunflower, corn seeds imports from four countries
The Russian agricultural watchdog has banned imports of sunflower and corn seeds from companies in Chile, France, Hungary, and Turkey, it said on Thursday, in line with Moscow's policy to reduce dependency on seed imports. Over the last decade, Russia has become a major agriculture exporter and is striving to become a global agricultural superpower.  

Dec 13 - Export demand may push Ukraine wheat prices up in Dec-Jan, producers say
The volume of wheat export contracts from Ukraine in December totals 1.1 million metric tons and high demand from exporters may increase prices by $20 to $25 per ton in December-January, major Ukrainian agricultural producers' union UAC said. The union said late on Wednesday traders had exported 136,000 tons of Ukrainian-origin wheat in the first nine days of December.

Dec 13 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @205$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP mon. Germany, Jan-Feb @533€
· sunflower oil FCA plant, Ukraine, Feb-birch @1'065€

- Ukraine
· USDA updated in December its expectations for the harvest in Ukraine: corn - 26.5 million tons (preliminary assessment - 26.2 million tons), barley - 5.9 million tons (preliminary assessment - 5.4 million tons), rape - 3.75 million tons (preliminary assessment - 3.6 million tons), sunflower - 12.9 million tons (preliminary assessment - 12.5 million tons). According to wheat and soybeans estimates have not changed - 22.9 million tons and 6.6 million tons respectively.
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 11 December amounted to: corn - 733.2 thousand tons, wheat - 168.3 thousand tons, soybeans 133.5 - thousand tons, rape - 94.1 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.47 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 156.9 thousand tons, soybean oil - 9.6 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 174.2 thousand tons.

- Europe
· December estimates of USDA for the EU crop: wheat - 121.3 million tons (preliminary assessment - 122.6 million tons), corn - 58 million tons (preliminary assessment - 58.8 million tons), barley - 50.4 million tons (preliminary assessment - 50.75 million tons), soybeans - 2.85 million tons (preliminary assessment - 2.9 million tons), rape - 17.24 million tons (preliminary assessment - 17.35 million tons), sunflower - 8.78 million tons (preliminary assessment - 9.43 million tons).

- CORN
European buyers demonstrate good activity in the market. Demand on their part increases, which in turn pushes prices to growth.
The Ukrainian corn market demonstrated an increased price dynamics during the week. Buyers are actively encouraging sellers to sign contracts for January-February, given the expected increase in the cost of logistics in February. This encourages manufacturers to intensify sales. On average, prices in the ports of Odessa rose by 4$ to 204-205$.

- WHEAT
In Ukraine, food wheat prices have not undergone significant changes in comparison with the previous week. However, feed wheat showed a slight increase, which was due to higher prices in the neighboring market of feed corn and barley.

- SUNFLOWER
In the domestic market, sunflower prices have not changed for a week. At the same time, demand from individual processing plants increased after the recent price correction. The supply from manufacturers remains limited, which forces buyers to stimulate sellers with premiums for volume and fast delivery.
Oil prices in the spot market decreased by 15-20$ and traded on average at 1095$ CPT port.

- SOYA
The low activity of European buyers is further explained by a sufficient level of coverage.
In the Ukrainian market prices in ports are reduced. At the same time, some processing plants have intensified and are ready to give prizes for good volumes.

- RAPE
The high demand in the EU encourages buyers to actively purchase, in particular from Canada and the new harvest from Australia. A significant supply from these countries, which is expected by the end of February, creates a competitive pressure on the Ukrainian market, affecting prices and export volumes.

Dec 13 - GIWA raises Western Australian wheat harvest estimate by 495,000 tons
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) raised its estimates for wheat, barley and canola production in the state, saying yields from the ongoing harvest had continued to exceed expectations. Western Australia is one of the biggest cropping areas in Australia, a major exporter of agricultural goods.  

Dec 13 - Conab, Abiove raise forecasts for Brazil's 2025 soybean crop
Brazilian national crop agency Conab and oilseed crushing group Abiove on Thursday increased their estimates for the country's 2025 soybean crop, which could reach record levels following improved weather conditions. Farmers in the South American nation, the world's largest soy producer and exporter, are set to see yields recover in the new season after grappling with adverse weather in the previous cycle, which affected overall production of the oilseed.

Dec 12 - Argentina exchange hikes wheat forecast after fresh November rains
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday hiked up its forecast for the nation's 2024/25 wheat harvest thanks to recent rainfalls and fresh weather over the austral spring month of November. The exchange now expects a 19.3 million metric ton wheat harvest compared to a prior forecast of 18.8 million tons.

Dec 11 - Russian wheat Egypt bought in September finally on way
A first shipment of 66,000 metric tons of Russian wheat out of the 430,000 that Egypt bought in September left the port of Novorossiisk on Tuesday after delays, an Egyptian source with direct knowledge of the matter said, confirming LSEG shipping data reported earlier by Reuters. Egypt's Ministry of Supply said in September that its General Authority for Supply Commodities had contracted 430,000 tons of Russian wheat for October shipment.  

Dec 11 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 29% by Dec 8
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 10.24 million metric tons by Dec. 8, down 29% from 14.41 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 2.03 million tons, down 43% from 3.11 million tons in the corresponding period of 2023/24.

Dec 11 - US corn stocks expected to hit two-year low as exports rise, USDA says
U.S. farmers and grain handlers will have less corn than expected in storage before next year's harvest as exports rise to the second-highest level on record, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. Low prices and ample supplies have boosted demand for U.S. corn after farmers harvested massive crops for the past two years.  

Dec 10 - China soybean imports slip 9% in Nov but on course for record annual highChina brought in 7.15 million metric tons of soybeans in November, less than expected due to a decrease in Brazillian arrivals, but the world's biggest oilseed buyer remains set for record annual imports. November arrivals dropped 9% from 7.92 million tons in the same month a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations of customs data released. 

Dec 10 - Brazil breaks annual coffee export record after November bump
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, broke its annual record of green coffee exports in November, even with December's exports still underway, local industry group Cecafe said on Monday. In the year through November, Brazil exported 42.7 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee, already surpassing the previous annual record from 2020, when the country shipped 40.6 million bags during the full year, Cecafe data showed.  

Dec 09 - First shipment of Egypt's delayed Russian wheat purchase begins loading, sources sayThe first shipment from Egypt’s purchase of 430,000 metric tons of Russian wheat began loading on Saturday, following a nearly three-month delay, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The shipment, consisting of 63,000 tons, has so far loaded 17,650 tons from the Novorossiysk Grain Processing Plant in Russia that is part of the OZK Group, which also controls the terminal.  

Dec 09 - Funds' CBOT corn optimism a bright spot in a largely bearish market: Braun
Speculators' commanding net shorts in U.S. wheat, soybeans and soybean meal might make the overall market bearishness feel heavier than normal. But U.S. grain and oilseed sentiment is actually right in line with typical levels for this time of year, propped up by funds’ modestly optimistic views in corn.

Dec 06 - Russian winter crops are in poor state, top government official says
Russian winter crops are in poor condition and will need to be partially replaced by spring crops, while the outlook for next year's harvest remains difficult to predict, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday. Analysts from the ProZerno Centre, citing data from the state weather forecasting agency on Dec. 4, said over 37% of winter crops are in poor condition or have not sprouted, compared with only 4% last year, marking the worst level ever recorded.

Dec 06 - EU chief lands in South America to seal trade deal as France seethes
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen landed in Uruguay on Thursday seeking to finalize a long-delayed trade deal between the European Union and South America's Mercosur bloc, even as France slammed the agreement as "unacceptable". Von der Leyen arrived hours after President Emmanuel Macron's government collapsed following a no-confidence vote in parliament over efforts to rein in France's budget deficit, leaving Macron scrambling to name a new prime minister.

Dec 06 - Dire Russian crop health and Ukraine export risks threaten Black Sea wheat: Braun
New contract lows in Chicago wheat futures this week are hardly indicative of global supply concerns, but traders might want to eye what's happening in the Black Sea region more closely. Winter grains in top wheat exporter Russia are in the worst-ever condition, and Ukraine’s current shipping capabilities could soon come under threat.

Dec 06 - Vietnam rice exports in Nov up 16.3% y/y, statistics office says
Vietnam exported 698,000 metric tons of rice in November, up 16.3% from the same month a year earlier, government data released showed. For the January-November period, the country exported 8.45 million tons of rice, up 10.6% from the previous year.

Dec 05 - Analysts say data shows Russian winter crops in worst state ever
The share of winter crops in Russia for the 2025 harvest in poor condition or have not sprouted is at an unprecedented level of over 37%, analysts from ProZerno centre said on Wednesday, citing state weather forecasting agency data. The agency provides its winter crops data to the Agriculture Ministry but does not disclose it to the public.  

Dec 05 - Soy traders push to weaken ban on buying from deforested Amazon
Multinational grains traders operating in Brazil are seeking to weaken an agreement that forbids buying soybeans from farms on deforested land in the Amazon rainforest, environmental advocates involved in the discussions said on Wednesday. Soy traders including ADM, Cargill, Cofco and Bunge signed up for the "Amazon soy moratorium" in the mid-2000s, pledging to stop buying soy from farms in the Brazilian rainforest that were deforested from 2008 onward.

Dec 04 - Sunflower market has gone down (SovEkon)
Sunflower prices in Russian ports last week fell by 550 rubles to 40,625 rubles per ton, analysts of the Center "SovEkon" calculated. This is the first decline since the end of August. The sunflower market turned around amid lower export prices for oil and reduced demand from refiners.

Export quotations for sunflower oil have started to fall. Last week they were $5 to $1,110/t FOB. We believe that the price of sunflower oil has passed its peak and will continue to decline as prices of other vegetable oils weaken. During the week ended November 28, export quotations of soybean oil declined by $13 to $1,145/t FOB.

Probably, the decrease of sunflower crop in the Black Sea is already sufficiently reflected in prices. Against this backdrop, demand from refiners has recently begun to decline.

The weakening of the ruble partly curbed the decline in sunflower prices. Last Friday, Russia's central bank set USDRUB at 109.6, up 9% from the week before.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia proposed to change the calculation of export duty for sunflower oil from February, which will be based on the price index of the current month. It is currently based on the previous month's price index. The change could lead to lower export duties, as sunflower oil prices are expected to weaken.

Sunflower prices will continue to decline, supported by a weak ruble and relatively high oil prices. With a relatively large drop in prices, we expect demand to pick up from refiners concerned about capacity utilization in the coming months.

Dec 04 - Rain hits Australia's wheat harvest causing quality downgrades
Heavy rainfall has hit Australia's bumper wheat harvest causing widespread quality downgrades, traders and analysts said, increasing the prospect of tightening global supply. Farmers in Australia, the world's fourth-biggest wheat exporter, are wrapping up an above-average harvest and providing much-needed supplies to the world market but rain over the last two weeks has doused crops and more wet weather is forecast. 

Dec 04 - Mexico expects resolution on GM corn dispute by Dec. 14
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on Tuesday he expected a resolution on a dispute under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact regarding Mexican restrictions on imports of genetically-modified corn by Dec. 14. Under the administration of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico's government sought to limit imports of GM corn over concerns it could harm health and put the country's native varieties at risk.

Dec 03 - Australia raises wheat production forecast by 60,000 tons
Australia raised its national 2024/25 wheat harvest estimate by 60,000 metric tons to 31.9 million tons, with good yields in the east and west forecast to compensate for losses in the south to deliver above-average production. A bigger wheat harvest from Australia, which is one of the world's biggest exporters, will increase global supply at a time when prices are near four-year lows.  

Dec 03 - Rains bring relief to Argentina's agricultural heartland
Recent rains across Argentina's agricultural heartland have brought much-needed moisture to the soil as the planting of corn and soybeans are underway, Rosario's grains exchange reported on Monday. Argentina, a key grains exporter worldwide, went through a mostly dry winter and is now facing almost weekly rain fronts as the Southern Hemisphere summer approaches.

Dec 02 - The customs subcommission approved an export quota of 11 million tons of Russian wheat from February 15 to June 30, 2025 (FINMARKET.RU)

- "At the meeting of the subcommission, the tariff quota for export of grain crops from 15 February to 30 June 2025 was approved in the amount of 11 million tons. At the same time, only wheat and meslin were included in the quota. The quota for the export of barley, rye and corn will be 0 tons," the Economic Development Ministry said.
According to the report, within the quota there will be a floating rate of export duty (damper), the out-of-quota rate - 50%, but not less than 100 euros per ton. A draft Government Regulation will be prepared shortly.

Dec 02 - Strategie Grains sees rebound in EU rapeseed and sunflower crops next year
European Union production of rapeseed and sunflower seed should rebound sharply in 2025 after adverse weather cut this year's crops, consultancy Strategie Grains said on Friday. In its first projections for next year's oilseed output, the firm forecast the EU rapeseed harvest at 18.7 million metric tons, up 12% from a four-year low of 16.7 million in 2024.

Dec 02 - French soft wheat sowing ahead of average pace after drier November
Soft wheat sowing in France has moved ahead of the average pace of recent years, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, as drier weather this month helped farmers catch up on rain delays earlier in the autumn. Farmers had sown 93% of the expected soft wheat area by Nov. 25, up from 81% a year ago and also ahead of a 91% average for the same week in the past five years, FranceAgriMer said in cereal crop report.

Dec 02 - Russia cuts wheat exports among measures to curb inflation
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, cut its 2025 export quota by two-thirds, hiked wheat-export duties and abandoned import quotas for some staple foods on Friday as the government moved to curb inflation. The Eurasian Economic Union Council said Russia's export quotas for the second part of the export season from Feb. 15 to June 30, 2025, will be 11 million metric tons, down from 29 million tons in the same period this year.

Dec 02 - Govt register shows leap in foreign-owned cropping land (GrainCentral)

- CHINESE interests remained the largest foreign owners of agricultural land in Australia last year, but their landholdings have decreased by close to one million hectares compared with two years earlier.

Findings from the Federal Government’s latest annual Foreign Ownership of Agricultural Land Register released last month show the total area of ag land with a level of offshore ownership has fallen just 0.3 percent from 47.7 million hectares (Mha) to 47.56Mha last year.

Established by the Australian Taxation Office to provide greater transparency about the level of overseas investment in Australia’s farmland, the eighth annual report released this week covers the year to June 2023.

The ATO’s definition of foreign ownership includes entities with a level of foreign ownership of at least 20pc, so the register captures details of assets even when the majority of shareholding is in Australian hands.

Of the total 47.56Mha of agricultural land with some level of foreign ownership by offshore interests, 36.24Mha, or 76.2pc, is apportioned to the foreign share of assets held with some Australian investment, with the remaining 11.32Mha, or 23.8pc, held by Australian equity partners.

- China stays at No. 1

For the fifth consecutive year, China remained the largest foreign owner of Australian agricultural land, by area, despite Chinese owners divesting close to 1Mha over the past two years.
While the top 10 countries by investment origin did not change in 2023 when compared to 2022, the rankings of Switzerland and Germany changed places.
- China, The Netherlands and United States overall agricultural land interest decreased, Bahamas remained unchanged, and all other countries in the top 10 increased in land area.
China holds a 2.1pc share or 7.596Mha, comprising 759,000ha freehold and 6.836Mha leasehold, after divesting 190,000ha last year.
- The United Kingdom closely followed with 2pc or 7.325Mha, comprising 824,000ha freehold and 6.5Mha leasehold, after purchasing an additional 30,000ha during the year.
The overwhelming majority of country owned by both Chinese and UK interests in Australia is leasehold.
- Canada now owns more than 3Mha, or 0.8pc, with more than 2Mha each held by The Netherlands and the United States, each on 0.6pc, and The Bahamas, Switzerland, and Germany.
- When it comes to the nation with the largest share of Australian agricultural land on a freehold basis, The Netherlands tops the list with 1.38Mha, followed by the US with 1.14Mha.

Nov 29 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS )

- Sold in a week
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, Dec @233€
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Letter-Dec @198$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @1112$

- Ukraine
· On the weekend, Polish farmers blocked the border with Ukraine in the framework of the trade protest of the agreement between the EU and the MERCOSUR countries. The action lasted 2 days. Farmers plan to hold a new lockdown on December 10, this time with the possibility of blocking the entire eastern border of Poland.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 27 November amounted to: corn - 2 243 thousand tons, wheat - 1 038.3 thousand tons, barley - 149.4 thousand tons, soybean 429.9 - thousand tons, rape - 315.4  thousand tons, sunflower - 1.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 400.6 thousand tons, soybean oil - 36.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 343.1 thousand tons.
· As of 28.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 10.22 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybeans - 6.01 million tons (from 99% of the area), corn - 24.16 million tons (from 96% of the area).
· As of 25.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,383.5 thousand hectares (98%), barley - 611.1 thousand hectares (96%), rape - 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96%).

- World
· Turkey abolished 8% customs tax on imports of sunflower within the established quota, and the tariff for imports outside the quota is reduced to 12% from 27%. The customs tax will be effective from January 1 to April 30, 2025. The duty on sunflower oil has not changed and remains at the level of 20%.

- CORN
The external market demonstrates discrepancies in price trends. The saturation of the European market is forecast until February, which leads to lower price dynamics and lower prices for late periods of supply. The premiums for the later deliveries are almost absent, which indicates the uncertainty of the participants regarding further price changes.
In Ukraine, both in seaports and on the border, continues the premium purchase with prompt delivery, caused by the closure of long-standing expensive sales by traders. In the future, a significant decrease in the activity of the international market and buyers is expected, which can adversely affect prices.

- WHEAT
The activity of buyers in the foreign market remains low.
The Ukrainian market is almost not active. The demand from buyers is shown only for high-protein wheat, while the demand for feed grain is low.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower oil fell by 50$/t and traded this week for 1110-1115$/t (delivery December). Saturation of the foreign market with oil and processed products continues. Shrot on the Western border fell by 15-20$/t and traded for 210-215$ DAP Poland. In the seaports of Ukraine the meal was traded at 190$ (non-granulated) and 200$ (granulated).
Ukrainian processing plants have accumulated raw materials for 1-1.5 months. The decline in world prices for oil and meal caused the price of sunflower to fall to 24,000-25,500 UAH/t (delivery to the plant), for basic oil content 46% (dry substance). The number of sunflower offers increased against the background of lower prices.

- SOYA
The EU market is saturated with soy. Demand from the processing plants is low, as they are supplied with raw materials.
In the domestic market of Ukraine, manufacturers are holding back from sales, waiting for the best prices.

Nov 29 - Turkey provisionally sells 150,000 T barley in export tender, traders say.
Turkish state grain board TMO is believed to have provisionally sold an estimated 150,000 metric tons of barley in an export tender for the same volume on Thursday, European traders said. The sale depends on final approval in coming days. Tender volumes can be changed or cancelled completely.

 

 

Nov 29 - Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr reportedly makes no wheat, vegoil purchase – sources
Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development is believed to have made no purchases in its wheat and vegetable oil procurement inquiry on Thursday, sources said. Traders said they had not heard of any price offers submitted, with companies seeking more information about purchasing and payment terms from the agency. 

Nov 29 - Argentina's soybean fields in good shape after recent rains, report shows
Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop is in good condition after getting a moisture boost from rainfall in the country's main farming regions in recent weeks, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. According to the exchange's weekly crop report, 98% of the area planted with soybeans now has adequate to optimal moisture.

Nov 28 - USDA October soy crush seen at record 210.9 million bushels, analysts say
The U.S. soybean crush in October likely jumped to a record-high 6.327 million short tons, or 210.9 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday. If the average of seven analyst estimates is realized, it would be up 13.1% from 186.5 million bushels crushed in September and up 4.7% from the October 2023 crush of 201.4 million bushels. 

Nov 28 - Brazil grain barge shipping returns as Amazonian drought subsides
Transportation of soybeans and corn on barges along the Brazilian Amazon's Tapajos River, which had been suspended in early October due to dry weather, resumed at 50% capacity this week, operators said on Wednesday. Shipping began again on that waterway, which receives grain cargos from Brazil's biggest farm state Mato Grosso and nearby areas, as rain raised river levels, said Amport, an association representing port terminals and cargo transshipment operators of the Amazon basin.

Nov 28 - Tunisia buys 100,000 T soft wheat, 100,000 T durum, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat and about 100,000 tons of durum in an international tender for the same volume on Wednesday, European traders said. Traders said the soft wheat and durum were both bought in four 25,000 ton consignments from optional origins.

Nov 28 - Algeria bought 140,000 to 150,000 T wheat in 2 port tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 140,000 to 150,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only, European traders said on Wednesday. Traders had reported the purchase on Tuesday evening but not been able to give assessments of tons bought.

 

Nov 27 - Trump tariffs could raise grocery, liquor bills - from beef and pork to avocados and tequila
U.S. prices may rise next year for avocados, strawberries and other fresh produce, and consumers could face shortages, if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on plans to slap tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, agricultural economists and industry executives said. Mexico and Canada are by far the top two suppliers of farm products to the United States, with imports of agricultural goods valued at nearly $86 billion last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Customs data. 

Nov 27 - Rains swell Mississippi River, US soy exports flow at 4-year high
Exporters have shipped soybeans from the busiest U.S. grains port at the fastest rate in nearly four years after rain raised water levels in the Mississippi River, government data showed. Some 60% of U.S. soy exports depart from Gulf Coast terminals that draw supplies from barges traveling south on the Mississippi, the country's most important grain waterway.

Nov 27 - Algeria bought wheat in tender for shipment to 2 ports, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only, European traders said. Initial estimates of purchase price were around $267 a metric ton cost and freight included, they said. 

Nov 27 - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Cargill at an estimated $268.90 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the second half of January 2025, they said.

 

Nov 26 - Warm weather helps EU farmers recover from sowing delays
Warmer and drier than average weather in most of the European Union since early last month helped farmers accelerate crop sowing and harvesting which had been delayed by heavy rainfall, the EU's crop monitoring service MARS said on Monday. However, conditions were unfavourable in large parts of southern Europe including Spain, where heavy rains and sometimes catastrophic floods caused delays in planting autumn crops, and major producer Romania. 

Nov 26 - US farm groups want Trump to spare their workers from deportation
U.S. farm industry groups want President-elect Donald Trump to spare their sector from his promise of mass deportations, which could upend a food supply chain heavily dependent on immigrants in the United States illegally. So far Trump officials have not committed to any exemptions, according to interviews with farm and worker groups and Trump's incoming "border czar" Tom Homan.

Nov 25 - Funds preserve bullish CBOT corn bets but snub soybeans and wheat -Braun
Speculators this month established their first bullish Chicago corn stance in over a year, and those views held last week despite weakness across U.S. grain and oilseed markets. CBOT corn futures fell fractionally in the week ended Nov. 19, though money managers increased their net long to 114,628 futures and options contracts from 109,989 a week earlier to fortify their most bullish corn position since February 2023. 

Nov 25 - Thailand to provide $1.1 billion support for rice farmers
Thailand will give support of 38 billion baht  to rice farmers in an effort to boost productivity, its agriculture minister said. Farmers will receive 1,000 baht ($29) per rai for up to 10 rai (1.6 hectares), minister Narumon Pinyosinwat told reporters, adding about 4.68 million households would benefit.

Nov 22 - IGC cuts global wheat crop outlook on poor EU harvest
The International Grains Council (IGC) said on Thursday it has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production driven partly by a diminished outlook for the European Union. The inter-governmental body, in its monthly update, cut its 2024/25 wheat crop outlook by 2 million metric tons to 796 million tons. 

Nov 22 - Wheat yields in Western Australia are better than expected, industry body says
Western Australia should produce 420,000 metric tons more wheat this year than was projected a month ago, an industry group said on Friday, adding to expectations that Australia's national crop will be larger than pre-harvest estimates. Analysts in Australia had already added around 1 million tons to their nationwide production estimates after early harvest results showed very high yields in the eastern state of New South Wales.

Nov 22 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Letter-Dec @197$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, November @209$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Feb-birch @222$

- Ukraine
· As of 21.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 10.07 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybean - 6 million tons (from 99% of the area), corn - 23.62 million tons (from 94% of the area).
· As of 18.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,380 thousand hectares (98%), barley - 610.5 thousand hectares (96%), rape - 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96%).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 20 November amounted to: corn - 1 708.2 thousand tons, wheat - 796.1 thousand tons, barley - 66.3 thousand tons, soybeans 357.1 - thousand tons, rape - 264.8  thousand tons, sunflower - 0.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 307 thousand tons, soybean oil - 24.8 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 242.1 thousand tons.
- Europe
· Imports of corn to the EU between July 01 and November 19 is 7.6 million tons, which is 11% more than the same period last year. During the week, Ukraine's share in total imports increased to 49.7% (47.3% was last week and 46.3% a year ago). Brazil had reduced its share for the week to 19.4% (20.3% last week and 40.1% a year ago). The United States dropped the frequency of the week to 16.6% (17.5% last week and 1.3% a year ago).

- CORN
On the foreign market, buyers remain inactive, while the supply from manufacturers remains high. This creates an excess and increases the pressure on prices, forming an imbalance between supply and demand and complicating the conclusion of long-term contracts.
During the week, the prices of Ukrainian grain remained stable, as the decline that was observed earlier stopped. This was the result of a reduction in the supply of agricultural producers.

- WHEAT
The growth of futures prices on the MATIF exchange did not affect the EU physical market. During the week, prices did not change dramatically. The supply of wheat remains high, while the demand from buyers leaves much to be desired.
Wheat prices in the Ukrainian market have decreased slightly. The supply of wheat, particularly food, remains moderate. Agrarians refrain from selling, expecting the best price, while buyers are not ready to raise their purchase prices because of the high competition in the world markets.

- SUNFLOWER
During the week, processors reduced the purchase prices for sunflower, arguing that it is a correction of prices in the world oil market. However, manufacturers are in no hurry to sell, despite the risk of further fall. Farmers continue to refrain from sales, knowing about the limited stocks of raw materials in plants and waiting for the highest price.
The price of sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has also been corrected, having decreased by an average of 20-25$.

- SOYA
Large volumes of Brazilian and American soybeans continue to saturate the European market. Processing enterprises are almost supplied with raw materials, so the demand on their part is reduced. In Ukraine, the supply of soybeans from manufacturers has decreased. Most farmers are no longer willing to sell crops because of low prices for them.

Nov 21 - Flour millers face supply crunch as wheat farmers tighten grip on stocks
Wheat growers in several exporting countries are reluctant to sell their crops with prices near four-year lows, traders, farmers and millers say, leaving flour makers with dwindling supplies and vulnerable to any potential upswing in prices. Typically grain processors buy wheat three to four months in advance. 

Nov 21 - China's nod to Brazilian sorghum may serve as test for US relations - Braun
China on Wednesday gave Brazil the go-ahead to begin exporting sorghum to Chinese buyers, a somewhat peculiar move since Brazil hardly exports the grain at all. But the United States has a dominant presence in the Chinese sorghum market, which is why the development could help gauge U.S.-China trade relations going forward, especially from January when President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term.

Nov 21 - Algeria buys durum wheat after talks on Wednesday, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased a small additional volume of durum wheat in negotiations in an international tender which continued on Wednesday, European traders said. The tender had closed on Tuesday with some initial purchases reported. 

Nov 21 - Algeria bought South American corn in tender, volume unclear, traders say
Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 240,000 tons which closed on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday. Some traders said at least one consignment of up to 40,000 tons was bought.

Nov 20 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 31% by Nov 17
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 8.79 million metric tons by Nov. 17, down 31% from 12.66 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.83 million tons, down 37% from 2.91 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Nov 20 - EU 2024/25 soybean imports up 9% by Nov 17, rapeseed up 16%
European Union soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 4.75 million metric tons by Nov. 17, up 9% compared with 4.36 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 2.34 million tons, up 16% from 2.02 million a year earlier, while soymeal imports reached 7.08 million tons, 23% above the 5.76 million imported by the same time the previous year.

Nov 20 - China's October soy imports from US climb for seventh month
China's soybean imports from the U.S. more than doubled in October from a year earlier, marking a seventh month of growth, as buyers accelerated shipments fearing a rise in trade tensions if Donald Trump were to return to the White House. Trump won the U.S. presidential election the following month in a comeback that is likely to reignite trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.  

Nov 20 - Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen rising on larger sowing area, minister says
Ukraine's wheat harvest may increase to up to 25 million metric tons next year from an expected 22 million tons this year thanks to a larger sowing area, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters in an interview. In the first official forecast for next year's harvest, Vysotskiy said the sowing area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025 versus 4.6 million in 2024.

Nov 19 - Record wheat imports forecast for Morocco (Grain Brokers Australia)

SEVERE drought decimated cereal production in Morocco this year with the final numbers proving even worse than the dire pre-harvest government expectations. This will increase the quantity of wheat that Moroccan millers will need to purchase in the international market over the course of its 2024-25 marketing year ending May 31. Terminals will be kept busy with record wheat imports forecast for Morocco in the near term.

In late September, the Moroccan Government released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2024 harvest, with poor results forcing authorities to continue to support milling wheat imports through a flat-rate subsidy to contain food prices and dampen domestic inflation. Total wheat output was pegged at 2.47 million tonnes (Mt), including 700,000t of durum. The wheat crop was 40.6pc lower than the 2023-24 harvest of 4.16Mt. It was even lower than the 2022-23 production disaster of 2.71Mt and is the smallest crop since the 1.58Mt harvest in 2007-08.

- Dismal barley

The barley story is even worse, with the government’s final production number of 650,000t, 51.9pc lower than the 2023-24 output of 1.35Mt. Like wheat, this year’s harvest result was worse than the poor 2022-23 season and is the smallest barley crop since the 2016-17 season when production was only 620,000t. The problems started last autumn, with a poor soil-moisture profile across much of the cropping area leading to a sharp fall in the planted area, the lowest in more than two decades. Seeding in some regions was not completed until January of this year as farmers awaited the season’s first rainfall. Much of Morocco has been in drought for a number of years, peaking in 2023, which was considered the driest ever recorded, with a mean rainfall deficit of 48pc compared to the nation’s long-term average. In the past, Morocco has devoted as much as 5M hectares to cereal crops each year, but the lack of rainfall leading up to last year’s planting window resulted in just 2.7Mha being planted to cereals last autumn for the 2024-25 harvest. Furthermore, sparse in-crop rainfall and poor growing conditions resulted in a very low vegetative index for almost the entire season. Only some very good and timely precipitation in the spring month of March rescued the crop and avoided a total wipeout.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, domestic wheat consumption in Morocco is set to increase in line with population growth from 10Mt in 2023-24 to 10.1Mt this season. With very little wheat going into domestic stockfeed rations, the Maghreb nation’s FSI consumption (food, seed and industrial) accounts for more than 98pc of total wheat demand. The FAS is calling domestic barley consumption unchanged year on year at 2.3Mt, 1.5Mt of which is classified as feed and residual, mostly stockfeed rations, and 800,000t is FSI demand, largely for beer, medicinal syrups, energy drinks, vinegar, and baby foods.

The poor harvest is likely to see this season’s wheat imports increase by more than 20pc from 6.24Mt last season to a record 7.5Mt in 2024-25. On the other hand, after an extremely tight carry-in necessitated a big year for imports in 2023-24, international barley purchases in 2024-25 are expected to drop from 1.5Mt to 1.2Mt.
Russia set to supply what France cannot

While the EU has traditionally been Morocco’s biggest supplier of wheat, the tide is turning toward the Black Sea region to meet the rising import demand. Morocco National Federation of Grain and Pulses Traders (FNCL) head Omar Yacoubi expected Russia to surpass France as the leading soft wheat supplier to Morocco in 2024-25, believing that France lacks the necessary quality and quantity to supply the Moroccan market this year. Buyers must turn to other exporters such as Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria out of the Black Sea, with Poland and the Baltic States also likely to increase volumes. In 2023-24, the EU-27 supplied around 4.58Mt, or 73.5pc of the import program, much of which was shipped from France. This was down 8pc year on year, from just over 5Mt and 80.1pc of the task. Canada was the second-biggest supplier with around 870,000t, 18.4pc lower than in 2022-23.

After an enforced two-year hiatus, imports from Russia resumed in 2023-24 to become the third largest supplier, accounting for around 8pc of the program at just over 500,000t. Ukraine supplied up to 20pc of Morocco’s soft wheat imports in the years prior to the Russian invasion. While it did recover some ground in 2023-24, at 180,000t it was still less than 3pc of the total milling wheat program. The two main barley suppliers in 2023-24 were the EU-27 with 1.22Mt and Russia with 270,000t, collectively accounting for 97.3pc of the shipments. Member states of the EU-27 were the sole suppliers in the 2022-23 marketing year with a meagre 350,000t barley imports.

- MATIF anomaly

Moroccan state-run grains agency Office National Interprofessionnel des Céréales et des Légumineuses (ONICL) pays merchants a subsidy for each tonne of wheat imported, regardless of origin, to compensate for relatively high global prices. ONICL reportedly bases the subsidy calculation each month on French, German, US and Argentinian wheat prices. This means that the rebate has a strong correlation with Matif wheat futures but bears very little semblance to Black Sea values.

When Matif futures rise, Moroccan importers can expect a higher rebate for wheat imports in the subsequent month. If physical prices remain stable or fall at the origin, it is doubly attractive for domestic consumers to purchase that wheat for arrival in the following calendar month. This creates a distinct advantage for export origins where physical prices are not tied to Matif futures, such as the Black Sea, Russia and Ukraine in particular.

Analysis of early season trade data reveals that Russia supplied almost 400,000t in the first four months of its 2024-25 marketing year. This is around 80pc of total Russian wheat shipments to Morocco in the entire 2023-24 year. By comparison, at 500,000t, French shipments accounted for around 29pc of the four-month program. However, 60pc of this was in June, with the Baltic States completely pushing France out of the equation in September.

The rebate system is likely to be one of the reasons for the flurry of buying activity over the past six weeks for November delivery. While Russian milling wheat appears to have lost competitiveness relative to French origin with the recent slide in Matif futures, Moroccan importers reportedly have as much as 1Mt of milling wheat on their books for November delivery alone, around half of which appears to be Russian, and only a quarter French.

Nov 19 - ADM's Q3 earnings fall, report delayed after more accounting errors found
Global grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland reported lower third-quarter profits on Monday due to weakness in its grain business, an announcement delayed by the need to correct irregularities in accounts of its operating units. Prices for staple crops like corn and soybeans have slid to near four-year lows, hurting ADM's profits and margins, especially in its grain origination and crushing business. 

Nov 19 - US agriculture in crosshairs as Brazil and China cozy up -Braun
U.S. agricultural exporters have seen a marked decline in business to China over the past year or so as trade tensions simmer, and Brazil’s increasing ability to supply product has not helped the U.S. cause. But now Brazil is looking to beef up – literally – its agricultural trade ties with China and capitalize on potential tariff escalations between the United States and China once President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term in January. 

Nov 18 - Indonesia to review palm oil export levies, policy may not changeIndonesia is looking to review the way it sets palm oil export levies to maintain competitiveness against rival edible oils, an official said, describing it as a regular move to evaluate its trade policy. Malaysian palm oil futures last week rose as traders anticipated a possible change in Indonesia's export levy or tax structure, though prices fell in early trade Monday, tracking weakness in rival Dalian oils and pressured by a strong ringgit. 

Nov 18 - UK confirms bird flu cases at commercial poultry farm
Britain said on Sunday it had confirmed a strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry at premises near the town of St Ives in southwest England. All poultry on the premises will be humanely culled, and a 3 km protection zone and 10 km surveillance zone have been put in place, the UK government added in a statement.

Nov 15 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERs)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @199$->196$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @391$
· sunflower VO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @31'800₴
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @1'165$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Jan-Feb @228.50$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 13 November amounted to: corn - 1 115.9 thousand tons, wheat - 496.3 thousand tons, barley - 37.1 thousand tons, soybeans 226.6 - thousand tons, rape - 174.8  thousand tons, sunflower - 0.4 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 220 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 186.1 thousand tons.
· As of 14.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.95 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybeans - 5.88 million tons (from 98% of the area), corn - 22.34 million tons (from 88% of the area).
· As of 11.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,352 thousand hectares (97%), barley - 577.8 thousand hectares (90%), rape - 1,079.5 thousand hectares (96%).

- Europe
· FranceAgriMer reduced French wheat export forecasts within and outside the EU by 24/25 MY to 3.9 million tons, which is 62% lower than last season, due to the worst wheat harvest in 40 years.

- CORN
The sharp rise in the price of the MATIF exchange last week was more speculative. The physical market did not respond to it. Prices for corn in the EU continue to decline due to high supply and low demand from buyers, especially for remote deliveries.
During the week, grain prices in Ukrainian ports fell by an average of 2-3$ due to the high offer, which made it more competitive in the EU market. An additional factor contributing to the improvement of the situation of Ukrainian corn is the sharp strengthening of the US dollar, which makes US grain more expensive for imports. However, for a significant strengthening of positions, a further decline in prices is necessary.

- WHEAT
Low demand and good supply of wheat from key exporters continue to put pressure on the European market.
In the Ukrainian market, the decline has been forage wheat, while the prices of food grain have not undergone drastic changes. Farmers continue to hold high-protein wheat, waiting for prices to rise.

- SUNFLOWER
At the beginning of the week, sunflower prices continued to grow against the background of low supply and high demand from processors. Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has increased by an average of $ 10 per week. Over the past month, the premium for high oleic sunflower has increased from 2000 UAH to 4000 UAH.
However, since the middle of the week, prices have stopped, and the market began to talk about a possible reversal of the trend. Some processors have attempted to cut prices, citing world oil prices falling. However, we should not forget about the low sunflower harvest in Ukraine this season, which will directly affect the market.

- SOYA
Soybean prices on the European market have undergone a small correction. Demand from processing plants remains high, but the high supply of soybeans is increasingly pressing the European market. On the Ukrainian market, prices continue to decline due to high supply against the background of a good harvest in the country.

Nov 15 - EU wheat area to rebound, barley and maize to fall, Strategie Grains says
The soft wheat area in the European Union should rebound sharply next year after planting weather improved, while barley and maize are set to lose ground, consultancy Strategie Grains said. In initial projections for the 2025/26 crop, the firm estimated that the area sown with soft wheat, the EU's most-produced cereal, will rise by 1 million hectares, or about 5%, from the 20.4 million hectares harvested this season. 

Nov 15 - Argentina's soy planting makes fast progress after abundant rains
Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday that soybean planting had progressed very smoothly over the past week, following abundant rainfall across key parts of the major grains supplier's agricultural heartlands. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soybean oil and meal, and its farmers have already planted some 20.1% of an expected 18.6 million hectares this season, the exchange said, marking a rapid 12.2 percentage point increase over the last week. 

Nov 14 - EU wheat exports shift westwards as Russian trade spreadsEuropean Union wheat exports are increasingly focused on the western side of Africa after losing out to Russia in major North African and Middle Eastern markets, traders said on Wednesday. EU shipments of common wheat, or soft wheat, so far in 2024/25 are 30% below the year-earlier level, curbed by Russian-led competition and a rain-hit harvest in top EU grower France. 

Nov 14 - Argentina exchange ups soybean harvest estimate after rains help planting
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange raised its forecast for the country's 2024/25 soybean crop on Wednesday, as improved rainfall in the second half of October allowed farmers to pick up the pace of planting. Argentina's projected soybean production was revised slightly upward to between 53 million and 53.5 million metric tons, from a prior estimate of between 52 and 53 million tons.

Nov 13 - There is still high competition between processors and exporters for feed corn in Ukraine (APK-Inform)

No significant price adjustments were observed in the sector of feed corn last week. High competition for grain between processors and export-oriented companies and insufficiently active supply of grain due to restrained sales by agrarians continued to support prices.

However, downward price dynamics on the export market put pressure on prices. The final stage of harvesting late crops continues, which also influenced the gradual decline in prices.

Demand prices for feed corn were voiced mainly in the range of UAH 8100-9200/t CPT.

Nov 13 - China's soybean imports may fall 9.5% this marketing year, COFCO executive says
China's soybean imports are likely to drop by 9.5% in the marketing year ending in September 2025, an executive of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) said on Wednesday. Overseas shipments of soybeans into China, the world's biggest consumer of the oilseed, will drop to 98.8 million metric tons in the year to September 2025 from 109.4 million tons shipped in the prior year, the executive, who asked to remain unidentified, said in a speech at an oilseeds conference. 

Nov 13 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 30% by Nov. 10
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 8.34 million metric tons by Nov. 10, down 30% from 11.96 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.77 million tons, down 40% from 2.83 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Nov 12 - Argentine soy farmers to speed through planting after weekend rains
Rains over the weekend in parts of Argentina's agricultural heartland mean that farmers will able to keep up the quick pace in planting of this season's soy crop, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday. The South American nation's main growing region logged between 7mm (0.28 inch) and 15mm (0.59 inch) of rain in recent days, but the north and the eastern plains saw up to 40mm (1.57 inches), according to the exchange. 

Nov 12 - Russian lobby group says officials inflate grain harvest figures
Russia's official grain harvest estimate is likely to include harvests from territories annexed from Ukraine and refer to bunker weight rather than clean weight to deliberately inflate numbers, the head of an industry lobby group said. The agriculture ministry forecasts this year's grain harvest at 130 million tons, following months of bad weather.

Nov 12 - Ukrainian Daily Agri Report (BARVA Invest)

- Wheat
DAP-Port Danube (11.5%) - 207-210+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 207-212 $/t

Wheat quotations at the end of yesterday's trading showed a decrease in pressure to reduce the cost of the offer from the Russian Federation and against the background of a gradual decline in weather risks for the future harvest in the Northern Hemisphere.

· South Korea has purchased 65 thousand tons of fodder wheat without a tender announcement.
· According to Minagro, the dynamics of winter wheat sowing in Ukraine has reached 4.35 million hectares (97% of the plan).

In the Ukrainian market, wheat prices showed minor adjustments depending on the needs of individual buyers.

- Corn
DAP-Port Danube - 198-201+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 192-196+ $/t

Corn quotes showed a minimum decline after active growth on the eve of and a background of limited trading activity.

· The Ministry of Agriculture of China increased the assessment of imports of corn to the country in the 2023/24 season from 23 to 23.41 million tons. The forecast for 2024/25 MY was 13 million tons.
· According to StoneX, 59.7% of the first 2024/25 corn harvest was sown in Brazil compared to 54.6% in the previous season.

The prices of corn on the Ukrainian market have held back in the previous limits, but the overall pressure remains.

Nov 11 - West Europe sowings resume but delays dent wheat crop potential
Drier weather has sped up sowing campaign in western Europe possibly allowing the continent to avoid a repeat of one of the worst harvests in decades seen this year, analysts said. Field work has resumed in most parts of the bloc due to drier conditions in the last two weeks, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming 10 days, with warm conditions set to boost crop development.

Nov 11 - India's rice inventories hit record high, triples govt target
India's rice inventories surged to an all-time high of 29.7 million metric tons in November, sources said on Friday, nearly three times the government's target, as export curbs imposed over the past two years bumped up local supplies. Higher stocks would allow the world's biggest rice exporter to boost shipments without worrying about domestic supplies, which were limited last year and led New Delhi to restrict exports of all grades.

Nov 11 - South Korea's MFG bought around 65,000 metric tons feed wheat
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. One consignment was purchased at an estimated $261.80 a ton c&f plus a $1.50 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.

Nov 11 - Indonesia may not import rice in 2025, says senior minister
Indonesia may not import rice in 2025, Zulkifli Hasan, a senior minister overseeing food affairs, said. Indonesia's rice output is estimated to fall 2.43% this year to 30.34 million metric tons, due to a delay in planting and the harvest season after dry weather in 2023, the statistics bureau said last month.

Nov 08 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Report (barvainvest)

- WHEAT
Wheat trading activity is seasonally decreasing. 11.5% wheat is bid $210-212, feed $203-205 DAP POC.
FOB market is stable feed offered at $223-224, 11.5% wheat at $232-235 FOB POC for Dec. Most of the export flow is getting pumped from earlier-
originated inland stocks.
4.3MHa of winter wheat is planted (96% of the plan). Farmers in the South (Odessa) were rather active planting this week. Frosts are forecasted for SH Nov, and this will round up the planting works. 199Kmt of wheat was exported in Nov 1-6, export line-up is at 417Km

- CORN
Corn remained flat/lower across the week, prices ranged $194-199 DAP POC, Nov-Dec delivery. FOB market was bid at $210-211 for Nov, offers were at $215+. Some spot selling pressure was noted on FOB/CIF, which has kept a lid over the market. Overall price perspective remains neutral/bearish, and we note more willingness from farmers to place sales. Ukrainian corn is at risk of getting priced out as most of the shorts are getting covered, so seller’s hopes of price improvement are fading. Corn has to get sharper (cheaper), to avoid slowing of exports and potential decrease of export in 24/25 from 20Mmt to 19Mmt or lower, mainly on account of smaller imports appetite by Spain (buying the U.S. origin instead) and China (better crop, smaller need for imports).
Harvest update: 20.24Mmt is harvested from 84% of the planned areas, average yield improved to 6.06mt/Ha (7.4 LY). 612Kmt of corn was exported in Nov 1-6, export line-up is at 494Kmt.

- FEED BARLEY
Barley market is bid $185-186 DAP POC, selling liquidity is close to zero.
FOB levels remained at $208 for Dec (nominal). 1.7Mmt of barley was exported since Jul 1.
Export potential is estimated at 2.5Mmt. 13.2Kmt of barley was exported in Nov 1-6, additional 5.4Kmt is loading, no further vessels in the line-up for now.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunseeds market continues to get a support from CSFO (CSFO since last Friday increased $10-15/mt to $1140-1145DAP POC) and stable meal ($220-225DAP POC for granulated) prices. UAH is steadily devaluating, and we hear that bids to port plants for 50% oil content seeds have reached 28000 UAH ($591 net of VAT, or +$5-6/mt on the week). Farmers continue to sell hand-to-mouth. 96Kmt of CSFO was exported in Nov 1-6, 147Kmt more in the line-up.

- RAPESEED
Rapeseed market is steady/slowing on the back of smaller (200-300KMt) unsold surplus. Price ideas kick-off at $520 DAP POC for 42% oil content, and there is a room for improvement. We hear less alarming signals as to pre-winter vegetation process, most of the rapeseed plantings have improved thanks to milder
weather. More precipitation is required though. 140Kmt of rapeseed is exported in Nov 1-6, 60Kmt more in the line-up.

- SOYBEAN
Soybean market is unchanged for GMO beans - $380-385DAP POC. Non-GMO is weaker, the best ideas we heard today were within $425DAP POC v.s. $470 two weeks ago. Exporters complain on weak demand at destinations and sufficient coverage there.

Nov 08 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @9'250₴
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @199.5$->197$
· corn DAP Danube, Ukraine, letter @203$

- Ukraine
· As of 07.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.68 million tons (from 95% of the area), soybean - 5.82 million tons (from 96% of the area), corn - 20.24 million tons (from 83% of the area).
· As of 04.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,296 thousand hectares (96%), barley - 543.6 thousand hectares (85%), rape - 1,073.5 thousand hectares (96%).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 6 November amounted to: corn - 612.2 thousand tons, wheat - 199.3 thousand tons, barley - 13.2 thousand tons, soybeans 104.2 - thousand tons, rape - 139.4 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 96 thousand tons, soybean oil - 5.2 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 56 thousand tons.
- World
· In October, China imported 8.09 million tons of soy, which is the largest monthly indicator for 4 years. Total soybean imports for 10 months of 2024 amounted to 89.94 million tons, which is 11.2% more than in the same period of 2023.
- Europe
· During the period from 01 July to 03 November, corn imports to the EU reached 6.6 million tons, which is 8% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 46.4% (against 43.2% last year). The US share is currently 18.6% (versus 1.4%). Not only the United States is increasing its share in imports to the EU, but also Serbia, whose share has increased to 6.8% (against 1.4%). Brazil's share of the country, in turn, dropped to 20% (against 42.7%).

- CORN
The sharp rise in prices on the MATIF exchange has not yet affected the physical market of Europe. Demand in the EU is largely due to domestic production as well as imports from Brazil and the United States by the end of the year. Ukraine needs to decrease in prices to the level of 188-190$ to find markets.
The difficulties with the sale in foreign markets slowed down the activity and demand from traders in ports. On the Western border, prices have decreased to 185-188€ loaded in the European train.

- WHEAT
High grain culture supply and low demand put pressure on the European market and stimulate prices to decline. An additional factor was also the reduction in the cost of logistics transportation and the decline in wheat prices on the MATIF exchange.
In Ukraine, wheat prices have not changed much. The supply of wheat is still limited. Feed grain farmers began to hold.

- SUNFLOWER
The low supply of sunflower seeds, especially with high oil content, stimulated the growth of prices in the Ukrainian market to an almost historical maximum. However, since mid-week, some processors have begun trying to push the market downwards. Farmers are not yet yield, waiting for further growth.
Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa increased by an average of 10-15$, which in turn is an additional factor for the growth of sunflower prices.

- SOYA
In the European market, there were no significant changes in prices for soybeans this week. On the one hand, high supply from the USA, Brazil and Ukraine presses on the market, on the other — the demand of processing enterprises in the EU, which remains at a high level.
In Ukraine, increasing the supply of soybeans from farmers contributed to lower prices.

Nov 08 - US farmers to seed more corn, less wheat and soybeans for 2025/26
U.S. farmers are likely to expand plantings of corn while reducing seedings of soybeans and wheat for the upcoming marketing year, according to data forecasts released by the U.S. Agriculture Department on Thursday. The USDA forecast that farmers will seed 92.0 million acres of corn in the 2025/26 crop year, up from 90.7 million in 2024/25. For soybeans, acreage is projected to fall to 85.0 million acres, from 87.1 million.

Nov 08 - US soybean trade with China already strained before Trump's return - Braun
Uncertainty increased for U.S. soybean exporters this week with Donald Trump's election win, since shipments to top customer China were severely curbed when a trade war began during Trump’s first presidency. However, U.S. soybean trade to China was already going poorly prior to Tuesday’s election, and some of the latest statistics are the most dismal since the trade war.

Nov 08 - South Korea’s NOFI buys 65,000 T corn, 63,000 T feed wheat
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 63,000 tons of feed wheat in a tender on Thursday, European traders said. The corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 192 U.S. cents a bushel over the Chicago March 2025 corn contract cost and freight (c&f) included, plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Nov 07 - China set for record soybean imports in 2024 ahead of Trump's inauguration
China imported 8.09 million metric tons of soybeans in October with buyers rushing to stockpile before Donald Trump takes office early next year, as the world's top soybean buyer heads for its largest annual imports on record.  October arrivals were the biggest for the month in four years, surging 56% from 5.18 million tons a year ago, according to Reuters' calculations of customs data released.

Nov 07 - Indonesia confident palm oil production can be increased to meet biofuel demand
Indonesia's chief economic minister said he is confident palm oil production can be increased in coming years to meet the country's rising demand for energy as the mandatory biodiesel blendis poised to expand. Indonesia's government plans to expand the mandatory blend of biodiesel to contain 40% of palm oil-based fuel in 2025 - called B40 - from 35% currently, and is expected to increase the mix further.

Nov 07 - South Korea’s NOFI tenders for 138,000 T corn, 60,000 T wheat
South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of feed corn, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Thursday, Nov. 7.

Nov 07 - Russia's grain policies help Ukraine secure sales
Russia's curbs on wheat exports have inadvertently helped Ukraine secure lucrative sales to Egypt this week while also inflating prices for the world's top importer, traders said. Egypt's state grains buyer GASC bought 290,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender on Monday.

Nov 07 - Ukrainian Agrimarket Report ( Barva Invest )

EURUSD – 1,0758
USDUAH - 41,4562 (NBU)

Wheat
DAP-Port Danube (11.5%) - 208-212+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 206-212+ $/t

On Chicago, wheat shows an attempt at consolidation, while on Euronext, wheat still remains under pressure from a sufficient export supply from the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, the net short position of funds for wheat on Euronext increased to 142.5 thousand contracts.

· Before the release of WASDE, the final wheat residues in the USA in the 2024/25 season are estimated at 813 million bu (WASDE in October - 812 million bu). The world's final remnants for the 2024-25 season were estimated at 256.8 million tons (257.7 million tons).
· Since the beginning of MY 2024/25 (July 1), the EU has exported 7.76 million tons of wheat compared to 11.33 million tons last year.
· According to Census, the United States exported 2.44 million tons of wheat in September, which is 33.3% higher than last year.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, wheat prices are still at the same levels. However, with each subsequent trading week, there is an increase in the imbalance between supply and demand, especially considering the significantly faster implementation of the export program against previous seasons.

Corn
DAP-Port Danube - 198-202+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 193-199+ $/t

As the harvest progresses, the corn in Chicago is slowly growing. Domestic demand in the United States remains record, while in the export market this country shows the best shipments in the last 4 years.

· Before the release of WASDE, the final remnants of corn in the United States in the 2024/25 season are estimated at 1.94 billion bu (WASDE in October - 1.99 billion bu). The remaining world-wide totals for the 2024/25 season are estimated to be 305.7 million tons (WASDE 306.52 million tons). Forecast of corn production in the USA in 2024 - 15.19 billion bu (15.20 billion bu), yield - 183.7 bu/acre (183.8 bu/acre).
· USDA announced the sale of 124 thousand tons of corn harvest 2024/25 from the United States in an unknown direction.

Meanwhile, in our domestic market, there is still a high price gap between sellers and buyers. In part, support for prices on the CPT base comes from the cheaper cost of maritime logistics and lower transshipment rates in terminals.

Nov 06 - ADM down 6% as more accounting errors arise, profit forecast cut
Archer-Daniels-Midland shares ended down 6% on Tuesday after the global grains merchant cut its 2024 profit outlook and said it would amend previous financial statements due to the discovery of fresh accounting irregularities. The drop wiped away about $1.6 billion of market value off one of the world's biggest crop traders as shares dove to the lowest since January 2021.

Nov 06 - India's summer-sown rice output expected at record 120 million tons
India's summer-sown rice output, which accounts for bulk of its annual production, is expected to hit a record 120 million metric tons in the 2024-25 crop year, the farm ministry said in its first production estimate. Farmers in India, the world's second-biggest rice producer, gathered 113.3 million metric tons of summer-planted rice during the 2023-2024 crop year as patchy monsoon rains, triggered by the El Nino weather pattern, dragged down output.

Nov 06 - Jordan buys about 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $271.30 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) for shipment in the first half of February 2025, they said.

Nov 05 - USDA raises winter wheat ratings, still 2nd worst on recordThe U.S. winter wheat crop was off to its second worst start on record dating back to 1986 after a weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture's report showed just 41% of the recently seeded crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday. The low rating, up slightly from a week earlier and matching expectations from a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, comes as crops in other major exporting countries including Argentina, Australia and Russia have been hit by dry conditions.Nov 05 - Egypt's GASC buys 290,000 tonnes of wheat in tender, traders sayEgypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is believed to have bought 290,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender, traders said. The purchase comprised 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, 120,000 tons of Romanian wheat, and 50,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat, they added.

Nov 04 - Egypt resumes wheat tender after failed August buying
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking an unspecified amount of wheat in an international purchasing tender for the first time since August. The offers deadline is Nov. 4, submitted on a free on board (FOB) basis with payment using 270-day letters of credit, it said.

Nov 04 - Funds assemble least bearish CBOT corn view since August 2023 - Braun
Speculators reversed course in the Chicago corn market last week, scrapping what had been relatively fresh short bets as U.S. corn export demand hits a fever pitch. Chicago grain and oilseed futures were down across the board in the week ended Oct. 29.

Nov 04 - Vancouver port employer could shut out foremen, bulk grain will not be hit
Port of Vancouver foremen will be locked out on Monday unless they scrap a proposed strike, employers at Canada's biggest port said on Friday, but bulk grain handling would not be affected. Canada's west coast ports are major outlets for resource exports, including potash, coal, forestry products, pork and beef.

Nov 04 - Argentina's grains export revenue jumps more than 200% in October
Argentina's farm sector brought in a total of $2.55 billion through exports in October, a 243% increase compared to the some month a year earlier, the CIARA-CEC oilseed and grains crusher chamber and exporters said on Friday. CIARA-CEC noted in a report that revenues from the sector's companies rose nearly 3% compared to September. In the January-October period there was an 21% increase.

Nov 01 - Ukrainian Agri Market Report ( BARVA Invest )

- Wheat market was unchanged today, and overall stable this week. Feed wheat offers on FOB POC are at $224 for Nov and $226 for Dec, bids are within $220FOB and $206-207DAP. 11.5%
wheat is offered at $230FOB POC for Nov and $235 for Dec. Buyers are at $221-226FOB or $210-213DAP POC.
- Line-up is at 366Kmt, destinations Spain, Indonesia and Pakistan. Ukrainian wheat is approaching 8Mmt export (out of 15-16Mmt surplus). Bearing in mind aggressive competition from russian side, we think that Jul 1-to-date wheat exports are unnecessarily active (this most likely resulted in spot longs in ports, which were popular in Aug-Sep, which were forced to liquidate). As russian market discharges too intensively on the back of 10Mmt lower surplus there, we expect wheat prices to firm in coming months.

- Corn market kicked-off the week at $200+DAP POC for Nov and is down to $198+/- 1-2$ (~$212 or CZ126 FOB equivalent) now. Exporters are struggling to score sales at $215 FOB POC or better levels. Some have covered premium shorts this week, and most of the buyers are now quoting the replacement levels of current CIF MENA demand. Most of the markets is covered through end-Dec. However, as corn demand declines, farmers are also able to reject sales at lower levels.
- Port line-up is steady at 438Kmt, port stocks and corn en-route to ports is in harmony or even surplus to the line-up we see. Short-squeeze is averted. We could be switching to overflow of corn to the ports, which may create spot push on the supply side.

- Barley market was $1-3 firmer offer side, with russian values reaching $210-211FOB Novo Nov-Dec. In Ukraine just 10Kmt is offered at $208 FOB Chornomorsk for Nov. Activity is nearly absent

- Sunseeds keep building firmer ($570-580 DAP crush plant net of VAT), amplified by the devaluating UAH, and farmers sell small lots only if they have no other choice. Most of the crush remains in the red zone for spot crush margins. Position trading has worked well for those crushers who were bidding premium levels and rolled the longs.

- CSFO values improved by further $15-20 during the week, reaching $1260 on FOB 6 ports for JFM and $1100+ on DAP POC.
- Sunmeal is sideways, latest buying ideas hover around $215-220 DAP port.

- Rapeseed trading activity continues to decrease. One panamax is planned to France, prices continue to hover around $515 DAP POC.

- Soybean market remained steady , non-GMO is bid $440-450 (demand for it is decreasing, so does the premium), GMO beans are stable at $380-390. Farmers are well covered with cash and prefer to stay proud on the back of devaluating UAH. However, if sale is to be made, soybeans remain a popular choice. Most of the time, though, farmers sell hand-to-mouth. 44Kmt of vessels are in the line-up to Egypt, Greece, and Turkey. Most of the flow directed at local crush, which continues to score acceptable margins. Crushers however are starting to voice challenges in meal sales.

Nov 01 - Weekly Ukrainian Commodity Grain Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @201$
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, letter @233€
· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, letter @25'850₴
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @1'095$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Jan @244$

- Ukraine
· As of 31.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.59 million tons (from 94% of the area), soybeans - 5.72 million tons (from 95% of the area), corn - 18.29 million tons (from 76% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in October amounted to: corn - 1 916 thousand tons, wheat - 1 642 thousand tons, barley - 376.4 thousand tons, soybeans 675 - thousand tons, rape - 476.3 thousand tons, sunflower - 16.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 481.2 thousand tons, soybean oil - 43.2 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 474.2 thousand tons.
· It is expected that in early December, a new system of minimum export prices for grain and oilseeds should be launched.
- Europe
· From 01.07 to 29.10, corn imports to the EU reached 6.37 million tons, which is 8% more compared to the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports is declining due to high competition and now stands at 47.3%. At the beginning of October, this figure was 50%. U.S. and Brazilian shares rose on average 2% to 18.9% and 18.4%, respectively, per month.

- CORN
The European market continues to be saturated with corn from Ukraine, the USA and Brazil, which directly affects prices. Because of this, prices have decreased on average by $ 5-6 per week. Currently, the supply from exporters exceeds European demand. Also, the physical market is affected by a significant decline on MATIF exchanges, where the price has decreased by almost 10 euros per week.
In Ukraine, prices have not undergone significant changes during the week. The grain supply from the farmer is moderate.

- WHEAT
In the European market, wheat prices have decreased. Good supply and low demand put pressure on the market. Also, the physical market is affected by the decline in futures on world exchanges.
In Ukraine, the situation is different. Wheat prices haven't changed much in a week. The food wheat offer remains limited, while feed farmers sell a little of it.
From 01.07 to 30.10, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to about 7.6 million tons, which is almost 39% more than was exported last year for the same period.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower in Ukraine this week continued to grow. Demand from refineries remains high, but the farmer still offers little, despite the fact that almost the entire crop is harvested. Manufacturers do not want to sell sunflower, especially with a high oil content, waiting for an even higher price. Sunflower oil increased in price in Odessa ports on average by 15-20$ per week.

- SOYA
Demand in the EU remains high, but prices have not undergone significant changes due to high supply from North and South America, as well as from Ukraine. Stable prices for soybeans in the domestic market contribute to the build-up of domestic processing.
In Ukrainian ports, soybeans prices this week have made a slight increase due to increased demand. There are not many offers from farmers. The bulk of the harvest of the farmer is kept waiting for even greater growth.

Nov 01 - Russia’s tacit grain export curbs cause market confusion
Russia's measures to curb grain exports are causing confusion in international markets as the absence of clear government instructions creates loopholes and potential friction with key buyers, traders said. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has attempted to limit grain supplies to global markets to prevent a price spike at home, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to combat inflation partly fuelled by military spending. 

Nov 01 - EU lowers most of its 2024 grain crop estimates
The European Commission on Thursday lowered virtually all its estimates for this year's grain crops in the European Union, which would lead to much tighter stocks at the end of the 2024/25 season in the 27-member bloc. In supply and demand data, the Commission put this year's production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the EU at 112.6 million metric tons, down two million from a month ago and 10% below the volume produced last year.

Oct 31 - Bunge profit tops estimates on grain, oilseed volumes; 2024 outlook intact
Bunge exceeded Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit on Wednesday as large global harvests provided the grain trader and processor enough volumes of soy, corn and other crops to blunt a hit from lower margins. The global grains merchant had expected a profit lift from a spike in crop sales by U.S. farmers, who are harvesting a record soybean crop and their second-largest corn crop ever. 

Oct 31 - US detects H5N1 bird flu in a pig for the first time
H5N1 bird flu was confirmed in a pig on a backyard farm in Oregon, the first detection of the virus in swine in the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday. Pigs represent a particular concern for the spread of bird flu because they can become co-infected with bird and human viruses, which could swap genes to form a new, more dangerous virus that can more easily infect humans.

Oct 30 - Ukraine winter grain sowing 90% complete, ministry says
Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.68 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Oct. 28, or 90.2% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. It said the area included 4.13 million hectares of winter wheat, or 92.2% of the projected area. 

Oct 30 - Brazil farmers, government slam Danone for cutting out Brazilian soy
Brazilian soybean producers on Tuesday said there is good reason for products of Danone to be boycotted after the French dairy giant said it would stop sourcing soy from Brazil, while the Brazilian government criticized "unreasonable" moves by European companies. Danone's finance chief told Reuters last week that the company was instead buying soybeans from countries in Asia, ahead of a European Union rule requiring companies to prove they are not sourcing from deforested land.

Oct 29 - US soy harvest 89% complete, fastest since 2010; corn 81% done
U.S. farmers have been harvesting the record-large 2024 soybean crop and the near-record corn crop at the fastest pace in over a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed on Monday. The rapid harvest has swelled already-ample supplies and strained storage capacity in spots around the U.S. Midwest this autumn, and prices for both crops were hovering near four-year lows. 

Oct 29 - US winter wheat health among worst-ever, stumping analysts -Braun
The U.S. winter wheat crop is in much worse shape than industry participants thought, coming as the world’s former breadbasket attempts to claw back export share on the global market. Drought has intensified since mid-year across the United States, but a break could be coming as ample rains are slated for the central portion of the country over the next several days.

Oct 28 - France's Danone cuts out Brazilian soy ahead of tough new EU rules
French dairy giant Danone has stopped sourcing soy from Brazil and now buys from countries in Asia, its finance chief told Reuters, ahead of a European Union rule requiring companies to prove they are not sourcing from deforested land. Companies from Nestle to Unilever have been gearing up in recent years to meet the new regulation before they face potential fines of up to 20% of turnover. 

Oct 28 - Strategie Grains cuts EU sunflower crop estimate again on bad weather
Strategie Grains has again lowered its forecast for this year's sunflower seed harvest in the European Union, mainly due to rain disruption to the French harvest and dire results in Romania, the consultancy said on Friday. In an oilseed crop report, it kept unchanged its estimate of this year's EU rapeseed harvest, ending a run of five successive monthly downgrades, and said early growing conditions for the next crop were mostly favourable.

Oct 28 - US corn export sales post multiyear highs, even without China - Braun
U.S. exporters last week sold unusually large volumes of corn that previously were possible only when China was active in the market. But China was absent this time around, and its import intentions remain unclear for now.

Oct 26 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report ( Wayne Bacon )

- US corn prices moved a little higher this week, up by about USD 5 m/t while soybean prices also were up – this time by about USD 6 m/t. USA soymeal prices were down on the week with some positions down by as much as USD 10 m/t. USA wheat prices didn’t change too much -- depending on the wheat type prices were down by USD 2 to 4 m/t.

- US corn futures had been higher most of the week but slipped on Friday as the short rally seemed to come to an end. US corn export numbers continue to be very good and US corn is the most competitive in the export market --- not just price competitive but also logistics competitive. US corn can be delivered while Ukraine corn is facing port problems following increased Russian bombing.

- Trade reports say that soybeans had a weak Friday for futures due to harvest pressure but add that they don’t look all that much like moving lower. No one seems to have a good reason for the weakness in soymeal futures prices during the week – perhaps just profit taking.

- USA wheat prices seem to be following world prices quite closely --- at least the price direction as European wheat prices slipped little lower on the week. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for a major change in wheat prices in the short run – some trade reports say that US wheat prices could just drift lower for now.

Oct 25 - Argentina weather outlook positive for soy and corn planting, meteorologist says
Recent rainfall over Argentina's agricultural heartland will likely continue into November, allowing for the normal planting of soybeans and corn, a leading meteorologist told Reuters on Thursday. The expectation of healthy rainfall follows significant precipitation in recent weeks that reversed an earlier dry spell over the key farming area, home to much of the South American nation's grains output.  

Oct 25 - China heads for record 2024 grain harvest of 700 mln T
China's grain output is set to exceed a record 700 million metric tons this year, a key agriculture ministry official said, calling for continued efforts to ensure stable supply. That figure is 0.7% higher than the 2023 harvest of 695.41 million tons, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Oct 25 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$->198$
· wheat 11pro DAP mon. Italy, letter @239€
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @382$
· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, letter @25'200₴

- Ukraine
· As of 24.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.53 million tons (from 94% of the area), soybeans - 5.62 million tons (from 93% of the area), corn - 15.4 million tons (from 67% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 23 October amounted to: corn - 1 342 thousand tons, wheat - 1 341 thousand tons, barley - 361.4 thousand tons, soybeans 441.7 - thousand tons, rape - 421.1 thousand tons, sunflower - 15.9 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 335 thousand tons, soybean oil - 32.3 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 334.7 thousand tons.
- Europe
· Ukrainian corn exports to the EU countries are declining this season. Ukraine's share in total imports of last season was 68-70%, this year it is still at 47%. Competition from the USA and Brazil is only increasing and does not allow the Ukrainian manufacturer to find easy markets.
· Imports of Ukrainian wheat to the EU, on the contrary, are growing. Last season, Ukraine's share was about 70%, currently it is 72%.

- CORN
In the European market, corn prices continue to decline as the supply of North American and South American grain increases.
Ukraine continues to increase the rate of corn exports. In the period from October 1 to October 23, about 1,342 thousand tons of corn were exported, which is 75% more compared to the same period in September.
The largest importers of corn during this period were: Italy - 385.6 thousand tons, Spain - 246.1 thousand tons and Turkey - 245.4 thousand tons.
Prices in the ports of Ukraine this week continued to decline, but it was no longer so significant than a week ago. The supply of grain from the farmers has increased.

- WHEAT
Sowing of winter wheat in Ukraine is being promoted at a good pace. As of 21.10, 3.84 million hectares were sown, which is 86% of the total sowing forecast.
Prices in Ukrainian wheat ports this week stabilized and even strengthened. The demand for grain has increased, and the supply from farmers remains limited.

- SUNFLOWER
In Ukraine, the market remains on the buyer's side. The high demand for sunflower from processing plants and low supply of oilseeds from the farmer stimulates prices to growth. Farmers are not in a hurry to sell large quantities of sunflower. In addition, the price increase affects the rise in price of sunflower oil in the world and directly in Ukraine. During the week, the price of sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has increased by at least $ 20.

- SOYA
The increase in demand for soybeans supports world prices to a small increase. However, we should not forget about the active harvest in the United States and the high offer from Brazil, which directly affects the market. In the Ukrainian market, prices in ports have not changed much compared to the previous week.

Oct 25 - Chickpea price plummets as Indian demand underwhelms (Grain Central)

PRICES for chickpeas delivered to Queensland sites have fallen by up to $250 per tonne in response to harvest pressure, and India’s continued absence from the market.

This is despite it removing its tariff on chickpeas, which was expected to prompt a fast and furious shipping program bookended by the start of the Qld harvest and the closure of the tariff-free period on 31 March 2025.

Trade sources say Pakistan has emerged as the destination for the first two new-crop cargoes shipped this month from Qld, and that prices have now fallen to a level expected to attract buying interest from India and Bangladesh, as well as Pakistan.
“I haven’t heard of any bulk vessels going into India, but Pakistan is very vocal; they’ve got seven vessels going from September to January,” one trader said.

Up-country depots in Qld are currently bidding on average around $710-$735/t for chickpeas, down from more than $1000/t early last month.

Trade sources say the price drop has occurred in response to volume selling from growers at higher rates.

With around one third of the Australian crop forecast at 1.5-1.7 million tonnes now harvested, the trade is now confident that volume to supply prompt shipment cargoes is available.

This has taken the premium related to concerns about widespread rain in the early part of harvest out of the market, and allowed it to fall to a level many are expecting will buy it volume demand from south Asia.
“The market’s safer once it’s at a level that’s palatable for a buyer,” the trade source said.

While India was expected to book up all available new-crop chickpeas, Pakistan, which has reshaped itself as a bulk rather than boxed market in recent years, has been the volume buyer thus far.
“Some people started to offer short into Pakistan,” a trader said.

That business commenced when growers were being offered A$1000/t, and the Pakistan market was US$810-$820/t cfr, which has now fallen to around US$720/t.

Oct 24 - Argentina rains 'turn game around' for grains after drought, exchange says
Strong rains this week in Argentina have given a huge boost to the farming sector after a tough period of drought, "turning the game around" for corn and wheat farmers who had been facing deep losses, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. The exchange said in a report that between 30 and 90 millimeters of rain fell in the last 24 hours in much of the agricultural core region of Argentina, the world's third largest corn exporter and a key global supplier of wheat. 

Oct 24 - Brazil sugar stockpiles revised to record low, says trader Wilmar
Sugar stocks in Brazil at the start of the current crop in April were at the lowest level on record at 900,000 metric tons, Singapore-based commodities trader Wilmar WLIL.SI said on Wednesday, citing numbers from Brazilian industry group Unica. Wilmar's Head of Research Karim Salamon said Unica published a revision of its stock numbers, cutting Brazil's Centre-South sugar stocks at the end of March, just before the start of the current crop, to 1.9 million tons from 4.3 million tons estimated previously.

Oct 23 - US exporters race to ship soybeans as looming election stokes tariff worries
U.S. soybean export premiums are at their highest in 14 months, as grain merchants race to ship out a record-large U.S. harvest ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions with top importer China, traders and analysts said. Nearly 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, including almost 1.7 million tons bound for China, the most in a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Monday. 

Oct 23 - India scraps parboiled rice export tax to boost shipments
India scrapped the export tax on parboiled rice, the government said in an official order on Tuesday, as inventories in the world's biggest exporter of the grain surged and the country is set to produce a bumper crop after copious monsoon rains. Last month, India reduced the duty to 10% from 20% to boost exports, and gave the go ahead for exports of non-basmati white rice to resume.

Oct 23 - Tunisia buys about 125,000 T soft wheat in tender, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 125,000 metric tons of soft wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. The lowest price was estimated to be $262.88 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for two 25,000 ton consignments sold by Bulgarian trading house Buildcom, traders said.

Oct 23 - Indian origin permitted in Indonesia’s 340,000 T rice tender
Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has told traders that Indian supplies can be offered in its new international tender to buy 340,000 metric tons of rice and the offer deadline is postponed by one day, European traders said on Tuesday. Traders said an initial announcement from Bulog said the rice could be sourced only from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam or Pakistan.

 

Oct 22 - US soybean harvest is 81% complete, fastest pace since 2010, USDA says
The U.S. soybean harvest was 81% complete as of Sunday, the fastest pace seen since 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday afternoon. The week's soy harvest, which was in line with trade expectations, is also ahead of the five-year average of 67% as weeks of warm, dry weather have allowed crops in the central United States to mature rapidly and enabled combines to continue rolling.  

Oct 22 - Russian wheat export prices rise, record shipments expected in Oct
Russian wheat export prices rose last week, in line with the new indicative prices for Russian wheat published for the first time, while export volumes remain high, with analysts expecting record shipments in October. The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) for delivery in November was $234 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $4, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Oct 21 - China September soy imports from US up 13-fold Y/Y
China's soybean imports from the United States surged 13-fold in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Sunday, rising for the sixth consecutive month. The world's largest soybean buyer imported 1.71 million metric tons of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 132,680 tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs.  

Oct 21 - Funds rejuvenate CBOT corn, soy bearishness after short covering streak -Braun
Each week since late August, speculators covered short positions across U.S. grains and oilseeds as weather and geopolitical risks increased supply uncertainties worldwide. But funds snapped that stretch of short covering in the week ended Oct. 15, adding new gross short positions in CBOT corn, soybean meal and soybeans. That flipped overall grain and oilseed sentiment back to bearish after the establishment of a net long in the prior week, the first in 13 months. 

Oct 18 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)Sold a week· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$->197$· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @18'600₴->18'300₴· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @390$->385$· soybean NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @476$· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, Oct-list @25'000₴->25'250₴· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @1'060$- Ukraine· USDA in its October report reduced the forecast for corn production in Ukraine by the September report by 1 million tons to 26.2 million tons, soybeans by 0.2 million tons to 6.6 million tons. In turn, the experts raised the expectations of wheat production by 0.6 million tons to 22.9 million tons.· As of 17.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.28 million tons (from 91% of the area), soybeans - 5.187 million tons (from 88% of the area), corn - 13.187 million tons (from 59% of the area).· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products for 15 days of October amounted to: corn - 861 thousand tons, wheat - 921 thousand tons, barley - 307 thousand tons, soybeans - 308 thousand tons, rape - 292 thousand tons, sunflower - 16 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 265 thousand tons, soybean oil - 18 thousand tons, cake - 188 thousand tons.- Europe· During the period from 01.07 to 14.10, corn imports to the EU reached 5.7 million tons, which is 6% more compared to the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 48.7% (compared to 42.3% last year). The USA has increased exports to the EU more than 10 times and its share is currently 18.7%. The total share of Brazilian and American corn is 35.6%.- CORNWorld prices for corn this week decreased. This was due to the rapid pace of gathering grain crops in the United States and the improvement of weather conditions in Brazil, which should accelerate the pace of sowing corn.Prices for corn in Ukraine this week decreased almost peak levels of autumn. This was due to an increase in market supply due to high rates of corn collection and lower prices for grain in the world.- WHEATAs of 14.10, 3,349 thousand hectares of winter wheat were sown in Ukraine, which is 75% of the total sowing forecast.Prices for feed wheat in the direction of the ports of the Danube and the Great Water decreased. In turn, food wheat prices for the most part remained unchanged.Wheat exports for the first half of October decreased to 1.08 million tons, which is 9.5% less than in the same period in September.- SUNFLOWERSunflower prices continue to rise due to high demand from processing plants and low supply from producers. Farmers are not in a hurry to sell large volumes of oilseeds, waiting for even higher prices. Processing plants are ready to pay for sunflower with the base content of oil 46% - 520-525$ without VAT with delivery, depending on the tonnage. That's at least $10 more compared to last week's price. Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa for a week increased by about $ 40 compared to the prices of last week.- SOYAThe rapid pace of soybeans harvesting in the USA and Ukraine, as well as the high offer of Brazilian soybeans, continues to press on the world market. In Ukraine, domestic prices are also under pressure and reduced.

Oct 18 - IGC maintains global wheat, corn production forecasts
The International Grains Council maintained its forecasts for 2024/25 global wheat and corn crops in a monthly update issued on Thursday. The inter-governmental body kept its global wheat production forecast at 798 million metric tons, with an improved outlook for Kazakhstan offset by downward revisions for Australia and Argentina. 

Oct 18 - Rains may have come too late for Brazil's coffee
Rain is falling across the coffee growing regions of top producer Brazil after one of the driest periods on record, but it may be too late for trees to fully recover before the new crop is harvested, say farmers and experts. Coffee prices have repeatedly hit multi-year peaks over the past two years, driving up the cost to consumers worldwide and forcing some roasters to change blends and lower the quality of the coffee they sell.

Oct 17 - High foreign demand pushes Ukrainian wheat prices up, producers say
High demand from Asian importers and a limited supply of grain on world markets has pushed Ukrainian domestic and export wheat prices up, producers said on Wednesday. Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter but the government has limited its wheat exports in the growing season from July 2024 to June 2025 amid high demand from exporters. 

Oct 17 - Brazilian corn heads up the latest USDA, Conab forecast disparity: Braun
Controversy over Brazil’s crop estimates commanded the market’s attention earlier this year as the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its Brazilian counterpart established drastically different views on the corn and soybean harvests. These 2023-24 crop disparities were unusually large and involved volumes significant enough to impact global trade given that Brazil is the leading soy exporter and No. 2 in corn.

Oct 16 - NOPA September US soybean crush up sharply to 177.320 mln bushels
The U.S. soybean crush topped all trade estimates in September in a strong rebound from a near-three-year low the previous month, while soyoil stocks fell to the lowest point in almost a decade, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday. NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 177.320 million bushels of the oilseed last month, a record amount for September.

Oct 16 - France cuts wheat and barley crop estimates, raises maize forecast
France's farm ministry on Tuesday further cut its estimates for the country's rain-hit soft wheat and barley crops, while raising its outlook for the maize harvest that is getting underway. Repeated heavy rain in France, the European Union's largest grain producer, reduced planting and hampered development of wheat and barley, leading forecasters to predict a plunge in wheat exports this season.

Oct 16 - Dry Freight Markets
Russia’s Grain Exporters Union starts publishing indicative prices for wheat exports
Russia’s Grain Exporters Union began publishing indicative export prices for Russian wheat on Tuesday, following discussions on exports during a meeting between agriculture ministry officials and leading exporters last week. The union said the indicative export price for wheat with 12.5% protein content on a free-on-board basis from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk was $240 per metric ton for October, $245 for November and $250 for December.

Oct 16 - Turkey relaxes wheat import rules as ban due to expire, millers say
Turkey, the world's largest flour exporter, has relaxed its wheat import rules ahead of the scheduled expiry of a ban at midnight on Tuesday, according to the millers' association. In June, Turkey banned wheat imports until Oct. 15 to protect farmers from low prices, promote domestic procurement of grains by the Turkish state grain board and create a favourable market for farmers.

Oct 15 - NOPA September US soybean crush seen up, at 170.331 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush likely rebounded in September from a near-three-year low the prior month while soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in almost a decade, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday. NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 170.331 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters. 

Oct 15 - Train derailment creates latest supply chain hiccup for US-Mexico grain exports
Mexican rail consortium Ferromex and U.S. railroad company Union Pacific Corp said they have stopped issuing permits for some grain rail shipments moving through Eagle Pass, Texas, after a recent train derailment in Mexico closed the track. The halt is a temporary measure until rail traffic gets cleared after the track reopened, Ferromex told Reuters in a statement Monday, adding that total volume of grain movement between Union Pacific and Ferromex will not be affected.

Oct 14 - French maize harvest falls further behind as wet weather persists
France's maize harvest fell further behind the usual pace last week, data showed on Friday, and torrential rain this week may exacerbate soggy conditions that have hindered field work in the European Union's biggest grain producer. Farmers had harvested 6% of this year's grain maize crop by Oct. 7, up from 2% a week earlier but well below year-earlier progress of 44% and an average 40% for the same week in the past five years, farm office FranceAgriMer said in a cereal report. 

Oct 14 - Ukraine 2024/25 grain exports to fall to 40 mln T due to smaller crop, official says
Ukraine's 2024/25 grain exports are likely to decrease to around 40 million metric tons from almost 51 million tons in 2023/24 due to a smaller harvest, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Friday. "The harvest (of 2024) due to difficult weather conditions is a bit smaller and there are no carryover stocks from previous periods and exports will be around 40 million tons," Vysotskiy told national television.

Oct 11 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-letter @205$->202$->201$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-list @206$
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow-leaf (car) @410€
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @410$->404$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @1'025$

- Ukraine
· As of 10.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 8.8 million tons (from 87% of the area), soybeans - 4.8 million tons (from 80% of the area), corn - 10.5 million tons (from 48% of the area).
- World
· The devaluation of the real estate against the US dollar increases the income of farmers and stimulates the export of agricultural products from Brazil.
· Expectations for soybeans in the USDA 11.10 report: U.S. bean harvest is projected at 53.1 BPA, U.S. production at 4.579 billion bushels, and U.S. surplus stocks are 549 million bushels. World reserves remain unchanged.
· Expectations for corn in USDA report 11.10: US maize yields are projected at 183.4 BPA, US corn production at 15.155 billion bushels. The final U.S. corn stockpiles are expected to be 1.962 billion bushels, down from 2.057 billion in September. Global final reserves were estimated at 306.83 million tons, down from 308.35 million in September.
· Expectations for wheat in USDA report 11.10: U.S. end wheat stocks at 819 million bushels, up from 828 million in September, and world final stocks at 256.14 million tons, down from 257.22 million in September. The market does not expect significant surprises from USDA.

- CORN
Corn prices approached the peak levels of the autumn period. 10.5 million tons of corn have already been harvested in Ukraine.
Turkey covered more than half of its import quota of 1 million tons by the end of the calendar year. Ukraine should export more than 9 million tons of corn by the end of 2024, which is far higher than Turkey's demand for 1 million tons. Brazilian corn is actively offered to European markets at prices that are 15$ lower than the prices of Ukrainian corn. The share of corn from the United States in the total import of Europe increased by 10 times compared to last year's figure.
Farmers actively offered corn at the level of 200$+ CPT port. Against the background of shelling of the port infrastructure in Ukraine from the terrorist country, interruptions began with the reception of goods in some ports, and traders are reviewing their trade appetites and risks.

- WHEAT
Feed wheat prices are trading at a minimum discount of $2-4 compared to food wheat. Buyers paid for forage wheat 204-206$ with delivery to the ports of Greater Odessa. The demand for food wheat in the direction of ports is very limited. Exporters have amassed significant stocks of food wheat in anticipation of rising prices being postponed.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower is harvested on an area of 87% with a total yield of 8.8 million tons. Sunflower prices continued to rise against the backdrop of strengthening oil prices in the international market. Sunflower oil prices rose by $50 compared to last week, which raised the price of sunflower to $22. With delivery to the plants, sunflower was traded for $ 510 without VAT at a base oil content of 46%.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans remain under pressure. The active offer of Brazilian soybeans on the world market significantly limits the possibilities for price growth. Prices for all areas remained unchanged, and for some even decreased to 5$.

Oct 11 - Iraq set to pay high price for bumper wheat harvest
A bumper harvest and a hefty grain surplus in Iraq, typically one of the Middle East's biggest wheat importers, has left the government with the prospect of a net loss of nearly half a billion dollars, according to Reuters calculations. The 1.5 million metric ton wheat surplus, helped by better-than-expected rains but above all by government subsidies, is excellent news for farmers. 

Oct 11 - Russia announces better-than-expected grain, wheat harvest estimates
Russia lowered its final grain and wheat crop estimates on Thursday but the figures were higher than analysts had expected, setting the stage for this season's export forecasts ahead of a key meeting with exporters on Oct. 11. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Russia will harvest 130 million tons of grain, down from an earlier forecast of 132 million tons, and 83 million tons of wheat, down from 84-86 million tons.

Oct 10 - Harsh weather curbs global wheat output, buoys prices
Harsh weather is reducing wheat production in major global exporters, cutting inventories that have already been projected to hit nine-year lows, while fuelling a sudden surge in prices. Dryness afflicting suppliers from Russia, the world's biggest, to Argentina is making food production vulnerable as recent Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea rekindles concerns about the war limiting supplies.

Oct 10 - Algeria bars France from wheat import tender as relations sour, sources say
Algeria excluded French companies from a wheat import tender this week and required that participating firms did not offer French-origin wheat, in apparent fallout from renewed diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Paris, trading sources said. The move, echoing a dispute three years ago that led to France being sidelined from its former colony's wheat tenders for months, may reinforce the recent dominance of Black Sea supplies, led by Russian wheat, in Algeria's massive import market.

Oct 10 - More Kazakh agricultural exporters complain of issues with transit to Russia
Some Kazakh rice and corn exporters are unable to ship their products to Russia, Kazakhstan's Grain Union said on Wednesday, in what appeared to be an expansion of a Russian block on grain transit from Kazakhstan after Moscow accused Astana of breaching plant health regulations. Russia is a key transit country for major Kazakh exports such as oil and uranium, and trade tensions could make market players nervous about the steady supply of those commodities.

Oct 09 - Algeria buys about 500,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has purchased about 500,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday, European traders said. This was up from initial trader estimates of 360,000 to 390,000 tons.

Oct 09 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 29% by Oct 6, data still incomplete
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 6.35 million metric tons by Oct. 6, down 29% from 8.9 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.53 million tons, down 36% from 2.39 million tons in the corresponding period for 2023/24.

Oct 09 - Higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia to curb palm oil supplies, analyst says
Implementation of higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, is likely to tighten supplies of the vegetable oil, a leading industry analyst said on Tuesday. Indonesia currently has a mandatory 35% blend of palm oil-based fuel in biodiesel and is seeking to ramp up to biodiesel containing 40% palm oil to cut its energy imports. 

Oct 09 - Scant rain in Argentina not to reverse problems facing wheat, exchange says
Recent rainfall over parts of Argentina's core farmland has not been enough for farmers to erase losses to many wheat fields and move forward with this season's corn planting, the Rosario grains exchange said on Tuesday. The agricultural heartland of the South American nation, a major world grains supplier, received 2 to 10 millimeters of rain in the last 24 hours, the national weather service said.

Oct 08 - Saudi Arabia buys 307,000 tons of wheat in tender, GFSA says
Saudi Arabia has purchased 307,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender for arrival between December and January, the GFSA state buying agency said on Monday. The tender sought hard wheat with 12.5% protein, with the purchase was slightly above the 295,000 tons sought.

Oct 08 - US soy harvest 47% complete, corn 30% done, USDA data shows
The U.S. soybean harvest was 47% complete by Sunday and the corn harvest was 30% finished, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed on Monday, with both crops ahead of average, while soybean condition ratings declined. The USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop as good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from last week, while corn ratings were unchanged at 64% good-to-excellent, both in line with the average estimates in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts. 

Oct 08 - Russia says grain harvest hit by Ukraine war, bad weather
Russia's grain harvest will be hit by the impact of Ukraine's attacks on grain-producing regions close to the border and by bad weather in many other regions, the RIA news agency cited Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut as saying on Monday. Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, has officially forecast this year's grain harvest at 132 million metric tons, an 11% drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 16% drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022.

Oct 07 - ADM to idle Iowa soy facility during record US harvest
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Co is idling its only soybean processing plant in Iowa for weeks in the thick of a record U.S. harvest, the grain merchant told Reuters, tightening supplies of soymeal fed to livestock. The temporary closure eliminates a market for farmers to sell their soy as low crop prices slash incomes and removes a source of livestock feed for buyers in the U.S. and overseas.  

Oct 07 - Funds slash bearish Chicago corn bets to 14-month lows: Braun
In the final week of September, speculators staged a hefty round of short covering in Chicago-traded corn and in the soybean complex, potentially reducing risk ahead of an often-unpredictable U.S. government report. CBOT corn, soybean and soybean product futures have all worked their way off recent multi-year lows, as demand recovery has also coincided with some drought-related crop concerns in major suppliers.

Oct 05 - EU’s deforestation program 12-month additional time to phase in the system.

Soybeans and soymeal had a down week this week with US soybean prices slipping by about USD 10 m/t with soymeal down by close to USD 15 m/t.
Lower prices for soybeans/meal were said to be related to the extension in the EU’s deforestation program – a program that had been planned for the end of December 2024 but has now moved to end December 2025. Some producers and suppliers are breathing easier while others are complaining that they made major investments in order to meet the deforestation regulations, money which now could be wasted.

Oct 04 - EUDR's Commission strengthens support for EU Deforestation Regulation implementation and proposes extra 12 months of phasing-in time, responding to calls by global partners

The Commission is today publishing additional guidance documents and a stronger international cooperation framework to support global stakeholders, Member States and third countries in their preparations for the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation. Given feedback received from international partners about their state of preparations, the Commission also proposes to give concerned parties additional time to prepare. If approved by the European Parliament and the Council, it would make the law applicable on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for micro- and small enterprises. Since all the implementation tools are technically ready, the extra 12 months can serve as a phasing-in period to ensure proper and effective implementation.

The guidance presented today will provide additional clarity to companies and enforcing authorities to facilitate the application of the rules, coming on top of the Commission's continuous support for stakeholders since the law's adoption. At the same time, the Commission recognises that three months ahead of the intended implementation date, several global partners have repeatedly expressed concerns about their state of preparedness, most recently during the United Nations General Assembly week in New York. Moreover, the state of preparations amongst stakeholders in Europe is also uneven. While many expect to be ready in time, thanks to intensive preparations, others have expressed concerns.

Given the EUDR's novel character, the swift calendar, and the variety of international stakeholders involved, the Commission considers that a 12-month additional time to phase in the system is a balanced solution to support operators around the world in securing a smooth implementation from the start. With this step, the Commission aims to provide certainty about the way forward and to ensure the success of the EUDR, which is paramount to address the EU's contribution to the pressing global issue of deforestation. The extension proposal in no way puts into question the objectives or the substance of the law, as agreed by the EU co-legislators.

- Additional guidance for effective and pragmatic implementation

The guidance documents presented today make good on the Commission's commitment to provide a reference of the recent collaborative efforts, involving stakeholders and competent authorities, to help ensure uniform interpretation of the law.

Key areas covered include details on the functionalities of the Information System, updates on penalties, and clarifications on critical definitions such as ‘forest degradation', ‘operator' in the scope of the law, and ‘placing on the market'. There is also further guidance on traceability obligations.

The guidance is divided into 11 chapters covering a diverse range of issues such as legality requirements, timeframe of application, agricultural use, and clarifications on the product scope. All of these are supported by tangible scenarios. In addition, the latest FAQ, also published today, features over 40 new additional answers to address questions raised by a diverse range of stakeholders from around the world.

Micro- and small companies benefit from a lighter regime, which is also detailed on a new dedicated webpage.

Information for the general public on the Commission website has also been updated and reorganised for easier understanding by all.

- Transparent country benchmarking and stepped up cooperation with international partners

The Commission is publishing today the principles of the methodology it will apply to the EUDR benchmarking exercise, serving to classify countries as low, standard, or high risk, aiming to facilitate operators' due diligence processes and enable competent authorities to effectively monitor and enforce compliance.

Following the methodology applied, a large majority of countries worldwide will be classified as ‘low risk'. This will give the opportunity to focus collective efforts where deforestation challenges are more acute.

To help ensure smooth implementation worldwide, the Commission and the European External Action Service are presenting a strategic framework for international cooperation engagement on the EU Deforestation Regulation. It identifies five priority areas of action such as support to smallholders, eight key principles such as a human rights-centred approach, and several implementation tools including dialogue and financing. This comprehensive framework will aim to promote a just and inclusive transition to deforestation-free agricultural supply chains leaving no one behind. While the EU will step up dialogue and support even further, the partnership's success will also rest on EU partners' commitment to deliver on global targets to halt deforestation.

- Completion of the dedicated IT system

The Information System where businesses will register their due diligence statements is ready to start accepting registrations in early November and for full operation in December. Operators and traders will be able to register and submit due diligence statements even before the law's entry into application.

Since the system's pilot testing with 100 companies conducted in January, the Commission put in place several additional measures, including:

    Creating a single point of contact for IT support for stakeholders
    Development of an interface that allows machine-to-machine connections to the system, without the need for manual data input; more than 250 private stakeholders are developing this feature on their side
    Support to test the geolocation files of stakeholders and providing feedback
    Videos and detailed multilingual user instructions about the system
    Training for interested stakeholders: the first session took place in Brussels on 25 September, and online training will take place from second half of October.

- Next steps

With the actions announced today, the Commission considers that the necessary conditions for smooth implementation will be fulfilled:

    Today's additional guidance documents will complete the wealth of support available to producers, trading organisations and partner countries in their preparations to implement the regulation, while the Commission remains committed to continue dialogue and engagement as necessary.
    Companies and other stakeholders are invited to complete their connections, testing and training for the use of the IT System.
    The Commission is intensifying dialogues with most concerned countries, which will feed into the speedy finalisation of the country benchmarking system through a proposed Implementing Act by 30 June 2025.
    The Commission invites the European Parliament and the Council to adopt the proposal for an extended implementation period by the end of the year.

Oct 04 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @193$->196$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow-leaf (car) @402€->405€
· Soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @18'800₴ incl. VAT
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @23'000₴ incl. VAT

- Ukraine
· As of 03.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 8 million tons (from 79% of the area), soybeans - 4.2 million tons (from 74% of the area), corn - 7.7 million tons (from 37% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products for September amounted to: corn - 526 thousand tons, wheat - 2 313 thousand tons, barley - 283 thousand tons, soybeans - 246 thousand tons, rape - 705 thousand tons, sunflower - 563 tons, sunflower oil - 348 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15 thousand tons, cake - 233 thousand tons.

- CORN
The reduction in the rate of corn exports confirms the lack of transitional residues in the country. Exports for the second consecutive month decreased to 526 thousand tons of corn in September, which is the lowest monthly indicator since March 2022. Prices continue to rise against the background of active import demand from buyers from Turkey and the European market. The share of imports of Ukrainian corn to Turkey is expected to increase due to a decrease in the export potential of corn with pF. Turkish buyers actively buy corn to cover their annual needs, which is 2 million tons.

- WHEAT
The wheat market is experiencing a paradoxical moment in equalizing the price of food wheat not only with fodder wheat, but also with corn. The strong export demand for feed wheat from Europe has forced the price of feed wheat to rise almost to the food level. In the structure of wheat exports in September, the largest share is sending to Spain, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam with volumes of 669 thousand tons, 390 thousand tons, 277 thousand tons and 259 thousand tons, respectively.
Processing plants in the domestic market of Ukraine actively buy quality food wheat and pay a premium of up to 6$ compared to export prices. Domestic demand for food wheat is up to 4 million tons. The total exports of wheat in 2024 at the end of September amounted to 6 million tons against 16 million tons, agreed by a memorandum between exporters and the ministry.

- SUNFLOWER
The restrained offer from farmers and the rise in prices of sunflower and sunflower oil create instability in the market. Processing enterprises are forced to work at minimal prices to maintain their activities. In the face of such difficulties, some plants decided to switch to soybean processing, which ensures a more stable market and allows you to get a higher margin. The transition to soybean processing becomes an alternative to maintain profitability in the difficult conditions of the sunflower market.

- SOYA
The domestic market of processing actively competes for soybeans, which is confirmed by the growth of the number of processing plants that have already moved to soybean processing since the beginning of October. It is expected that the total volume of soybean processing in Ukraine this year will reach 2 million tons. At the same time, the harvested soybean crop is 4.2 million tons, and the export of the new crop has already reached almost 400 thousand tons.

Oct 04 - Egypt planning for major wheat import savings, sources say
Egypt has developed plans to slash wheat imports and spend less on subsidised bread by adding corn or sorghum as ingredients, five industry sources briefed on the plans told Reuters. The proposals could save the government millions of dollars but face opposition from bakers and millers who could lose out financially and argue that bread quality would suffer.

Oct 04 - Argentina corn planting set to take hit from dry conditions
Dry conditions are likely to impede corn planting efforts in Argentina's main agricultural core over the next seven days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. Farmers began planting the 2024/25 corn crop last month in Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, and western and northern portions of Argentina's core farming region have suffered from dry conditions in recent months.

Oct 03 - Egypt's GASC strikes deal on direct monthly wheat supplies, sources say
Egypt's state grains buyer has struck one of its largest ever direct wheat deals for monthly supplies from November to April, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The wheat will be shipped to the General Authority for Supply Commodities with around 510,000 metric tons to be supplied every month sourced from Black Sea origins, and totalling up to 3.12 million tons over the period, one of the sources said.

Oct 03 - Russia's Sovecon cuts 2024/25 wheat export forecast on bad weather
Agricultural consultancy Sovecon cut its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast on Wednesday to 47.6 million metric tons from 48.1 million tons due to bad weather affecting the harvest, noting high export volumes at the start of the season. Total grain exports are estimated at 55.4 million metric tons, compared to 56.5 million metric tons earlier, it said. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter.

Oct 02 - Honduras 2024/25 coffee exports seen up 15% despite EU trade fears
Honduras' coffee exports in the 2024/25 season are seen up 14.5% from the previous period to 5.37 million 60-kg bags, industry leaders said on Tuesday, despite fears that shipments could be hurt by an EU regulation set to take effect at the end of the year. Central America's largest exporter of the bean sees exports boosted by better production this year as harvesting for the new season kicks off, Pedro Mendoza, head of Honduras' coffee organization IHCAFE said. 

Oct 02 - Leading wheat and soybean exporters grapple with historic droughts -Braun
Top grain producing regions of Russia and Brazil experienced one of their driest Septembers on record, just as farmers in both export giants were attempting to sow their crops. This has driven winter wheat planting rates to 11-year lows in Russia, which accounts for as much as a quarter of global wheat exports.

Oct 01 - Europe endures a season to forget (Grain Brokers Australia)

WITH this season’s winter and spring crop harvest across the European Union largely concluded and the summer crop harvest now underway in the bloc’s southern growing regions, the total grain production expectations for the 2024/25 season have continued to decline as final harvested yields are gradually revealed.

This reduction can primarily be attributed to adverse weather conditions, particularly record rainfall in late 2023 and then a wet harvest, which negatively impacted winter crop sowing and plant development across key producing countries such as France, Germany, the Baltic states, and Poland. Dry weather in the Black Sea region also took the shine off mid-season winter crop production optimism in the neighbouring states of Bulgaria and Romania.
Low plantings

According to the European Commission’s latest production estimates released last Friday, total cereal production across this season’s winter, spring and summer cropping programs is projected at 260.9 million tonnes (Mt), down 3.3pc from 269.9Mt last season and 7.2pc lower than the five-year average of 281.1Mt. The total planted area of 49.6 million hectares (Mha) was down from 50.3Mha last season and was one of the smallest this century.

Wheat occupies the most extensive area across the European Union’s 27 member states each season, with final plantings pegged at 22.6 Mha compared to 23.9Mha a season earlier and the five-year average of 23.8Mha. The soft wheat area of 20.4Mha was 6.1pc lower than the 2023 area, but the durum wheat area only fell by 1.1pc season-on-season to 2.1Mha.
Low production

The EC has pegged wheat production at 121.8Mt, down from 132.5Mt in 2023/24 and the five-year average of 134.2Mt, making it one of the worst EU harvests in the past 40 years. The soft wheat component of that total is 114.6Mt, down from 125.5Mt last season and the five-year average of 126.8Mt, while the durum wheat harvest is small in comparison at 7.2Mt, up from 7Mt in 2023 but lower than the five-year average of 7.4Mt.
Mixed weather upends establish trade flow

The European wheat harvest faced significant quality challenges due to the varied and hostile weather conditions experienced across some of the continent’s key growing areas over the harvest period. The unseasonably wet conditions caused delays in harvesting and adversely affected crop development in western Europe, whilst grain fill in parts of central and eastern Europe suffered from a lack of moisture in the latter part of the season.

These wet weather conditions led to significant wheat quality issues, with lower-than-normal protein levels and test weights reported. The French crop was the hardest hit, with the government farm institute FranceAgriMer stating that only 28pc of this year’s crop exceeded the minimum milling quality test weight threshold of 76 kilograms per hectolitre. Kernel weight determines the amount of flour that can be extracted in the manufacturing process, with millers expecting to grind 5-6pc more wheat than usual to produce the equivalent amount of flour.

However, with French milling wheat a highly sought commodity by the global consumer, it is exports that are expected to suffer the most in the 2024/25 marketing year. According to FranceAgriMer, shipments of French wheat outside the EU could plummet by more than 60pc compared to 2023/24 due to the poor quality profile, with other member states such as Germany, Poland and the Baltic states hoping to fill some of the void.

Barley is traditionally the second biggest cereal crop by area in the EU-27 every year. This was again the case in 2024, with a harvested area of 10.4Mha compared to 10.3Mha in 2023 and an average of 10.6Mha across the previous five seasons. Contrary to wheat, the barley output projection has increased year-on-year from 47.5Mt to 50.4Mt but still sits slightly below the five-year average of 51.9Mt.

The main oilseed grown across the EU-27 trading bloc each season is rapeseed. The EC is calling the harvested area 5.8Mha, down 7.3pc from 6.2Mha in 2023 but above the 5.6Mha average since 2019. However, the production fall was far more dramatic, down 12.7pc year-on-year to 17.2Mt. Following big crops in each of the past two years, the 2024 output fell 2.7pc below the five-year mean of 17.7Mt.

On the summer crop front, favourable weather conditions have prevailed in western parts of Europe, but a rainfall deficit and very high temperatures in most of southern-central and eastern Europe have negatively impacted biomass accumulation and shortened the corn grain-filling period. Severe flooding in September due to a weather system known as Storm Boris adversely affected crop development in central European states, in particular Germany. The yield outlook is particularly poor in Bulgaria and Romania, where extremely dry conditions have prevailed since late spring, while the French and Polish output forecasts are higher than in 2023.
Corn struggles

The EU-27’s second biggest cereal crop by production each season is corn. Although the planted area is traditionally less than barley, being the most efficient of the modern cereal grains for conversion of water and carbon dioxide into carbohydrates, the average corn yield is more than 50pc higher. This year’s planted area of 8.8Mha is significantly higher than last year’s 8.4Mha, but it is still slightly lower than the 8.9Mha average since 2019. However, production has suffered, with the European Commission’s September yield forecast coming in 2.7pc lower than the August estimate. This year’s EU-27 harvest is currently expected to total 60.1Mt, down 4.1pc compared to 62.7Mt in 2023 and 7.9pc below the five-year average of 65.3Mt.

As the summer crop harvest gains momentum across the EU, the majority of farmers across the European continent will very quickly and unceremoniously commit memories of the 2024/25 season to the trash bin and look forward to a more favourable season ahead. However, the winter crop planting campaign is already facing headwinds, particularly with the persistent dry conditions across eastern Europe.

Oct 01 - US corn, soy stocks reach four-year highs as farmers harvest massive crops
U.S. farmers and merchants are sitting on the highest stocks of grains and soybeans left over from previous harvests in four years as they start gathering what are expected to be two of the largest soybean and corn crops on record. In the final figures for soy and corn still in storage bins from last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that stocks for both crops were up 29% from a year ago on Sept. 1. 

Oct 01 - Australia could be canola trade winner if China gets over fungus worries
Australia would be the likely winner from a shift in global canola trade flows should China impose tariffs on Canadian imports of the oilseed, but Beijing will need to overcome their worries about a fungus. China, the world's biggest canola importer, has disrupted the market by announcing an anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada, the world's biggest exporter of the oilseed used for cooking oil, fuel and animal feed and China's biggest supplier.

Sep 30 - Supply uncertainties pare funds’ CBOT soy, corn bearishness to four-month low - Braun
After months of unusually pessimistic sentiment, speculators’ bearish bets across Chicago soybeans and corn have finally pulled in line with other recent supply-heavy years, just ahead of a pivotal data release from the U.S. government. Notable short covering in soybeans most recently led this effort. 

Sep 30 - Ukraine 2024/25 grain crop, exports seen down due to weather, minister says
Ukraine's 2024 grain harvest may decrease to 54.6 million metric tons from around 60 million tons in 2023, mostly due to unfavourable weather, the newly appointed Ukrainian agriculture minister said on Friday. Vitaliy Koval told Reuters the harvest could include 21.8 million tons of wheat and 25.8 million tons of corn.

Sep 27 - Cocoa-hoarding in Ivory Coast curtailed by regulator's threat of sanctions
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council regulator has significantly curbed the hoarding of beans in September, due to the threat of sanctions against buyers and cooperatives, sources within the CCC, exporters, and buyers told Reuters on Thursday. Cocoa bean arrivals at the Ivorian ports of Abidjan and San Pedro exceeded 50,000 tons in the first three weeks of September, a significant increase from around 19,000 tons recorded for the entire month of September in 2023.

Sep 27 - The bearish and bullish cases for US corn stocks on Monday -Braun
Last year’s record-large harvest boosted U.S. corn inventory to multi-year highs, though the actual supply estimates have dwindled notably over the last year because of robust demand. The situation will be clearer on Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its quarterly stock survey results as of Sept. 1, which represents the end of the 2023-24 marketing year for U.S. corn and soybeans.

Sep 26 - Argentine farmers seen favoring soy over corn in 2024/25 season, exchange says
Argentine farmers are seen favoring soy over corn in the 2024/25 season on soybeans' profitability and as fears of a stunt disease hitting corn persist, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Soy output this season is seen inching up around 3% from the previous season to 52 million metric tons, according to estimates from the exchange, while corn production should slip around 5% to 47 million tons. 

Sep 26 - Low winter wheat sowing rates cloud Russia's 2025 harvest outlook
Winter wheat sowing rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low due to drought in key producing regions, clouding the outlook for the 2025 grain harvest, the Sovecon consultancy said on Wednesday. "As of Sept. 20, 8.3 million hectares had been sown with winter grains, compared to 9.3 million hectares a year earlier and the five-year average. This is the lowest figure since 2013," Sovecon said.

Sep 25 - Promising rebound in US wheat exports could be spoiled by Russia - Braun
After their worst campaign in 52 years, U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach four-year highs in the current marketing year thanks to a strong crop and relatively tame prices. Robust shipments have recently supported that forecast. 

Sep 25 - Colombia to produce 15% more coffee in 2024, growers' federation head says
Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica, will produce 13 million 60-kg bags of coffee this year, an increase of 15%, thanks to varieties that are more resistant to extreme climate conditions and fungus, the head of the national growers' federation said on Tuesday. Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top producers of coffee globally, have suffered output difficulties this year because of drought, sending international prices higher.

Sep 24 - Rice from Vietnam/Myanmar offered lowest in Indonesia’s tender, traders say
The lowest price offered in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy about 450,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $539.30 a ton cost and freight for rice expected to be sourced from either Vietnam or Myanmar, European traders said on Monday. The lowest offer was said to have been made for up to 30,200 tons.

Sep 24 - Indian refiners cancel palm oil contracts on duty hike, price riseIndian refiners cancelled 100,000 metric tons of palm oil purchases for delivery between October and December, as New Delhi's move to raise import duties amid a rally in overseas prices prompted them to book profits, five trade officials told Reuters. Refiners in the world's largest importer of palm oil cancelled this quantity over the past four days, including 50,000 tons on Monday, after Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to their highest level in 2-1/2 months. 

Sep 24 - USDA reports corn harvest 14% complete, soy 13%; ratings unchanged
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. corn harvest as 14% complete, beneath an average of analyst expectations but ahead of the five-year average of 11%. Ten analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had estimated corn harvest progress at 17%.

Sep 23 - Recent strength in US soy sales not enough to lift export prospects - Braun
The United States is coming off one of its worst soybean export seasons in recent memory, with shipments rivaling those from a few years ago when the No. 2 exporter was locked in a trade war with top buyer China. Export sales of U.S. soybeans for 2024-25, which began Sept. 1, have been stronger than average over the past month as China has finally stepped in to make purchases.

Sep 23 - Brazil plants 0.5% of projected 2024/25 soybean area, behind last cycle, Safras says
Brazilian farmers have planted 0.5% of the projected 2024/25 soybean area in the country, below the 1.6% seen in the same period a year earlier, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado said on Friday. The level was also below the 1.5% historic average for the period, Safras said.

Sep 23 - Pulse Update: Frost, dry chop chunk from lentils, fabas (Grain Central)

- A SERIES of frosts and ongoing dry weather over much of South Australia and Victoria may have wiped as much as 500,000 tonnes from the Australian lentil crop. Yield potential for many southern faba bean crops has also been hit by frost.
- The lack of a finishing rain for chickpeas is pulling the northern pulse’s yield potential back from above average to average in some cases, and harvest is under way.
- Trade sources report production and quality concerns have tempered grower interest in forward selling, and prices are little changed from last month.

Chickpeas

Australia’s chickpea harvest has started at the few North Queensland properties where they are grown.
In Central Queensland, some growers have made a start, and loads are starting to filter into receival sites.
At Gindie, south of Emerald, grower Gordon Staal has made a start on his earliest chickpea crops, which are likely to be downgraded due to rain on ripening pods.
They were sown on shallower soils, and around two weeks earlier than the bulk of the region’s crops, which were planted in late April and early May.
“We’ve made a start; early crops are weather-damaged, but the mid to late-season ones will be the better ones,” Mr Staal said.
This year, Mr Staal planted no wheat and around 1800ha of Kyabra chickpeas, and is expecting yields of 1.7t/ha on the early weather-damaged crops, and 2.5t/ha on his later-sown crops.
With 5000t of on-farm storage, Mr Staal will concentrate on getting the crop off and marketing it later, particularly if bulk-handling or packing sites are only taking in the top CHKP1 grade.

He said variable soil and different run-off rates make for a harvesting challenge “like two crops in one” where early-maturing pods are brittle, and later ones are tough.
Trade sources report some truck drivers are already booked to deliver chickpeas from Gindie and other CQ regions south of Emerald direct to port in Brisbane, where at least 500,000t is booked to load by late February, the expected cut-off to catch the tariff-free window in India.
The market is currently trading at $1060/t delivered Brisbane for new crop, or $1020/t to either bulk accumulation or container packing sites on the Darling Downs.
In southern Qld, independent agronomist Paul McIntosh said yield outlooks are variable, based largely on whether crops got good winter rain.
“That flat Downs country that had some moisture might be looking at 2t/ha, but on lighter soil, it might be less than 1t/ha,” Mr McIntosh said.
At Walgett, Outlook Ag agronomist Greg Rummery said the yield outlook without a finishing rain looks like 1.5-2t/ha.
“The chickpea harvest will start in early November, and we’ve love a rain as soon as possible ahead of that,” Mr Rummery said.
“We dodged frost last week that’s knocked the odd flower off, and we’ve got two 31-degree days coming.
“A fall of rain now would be nice.”
Chickpea prices are down around $40/t from the recent highs seen last month.
Trade sources say growers are unlikely to make further sales ahead of either a decent finishing rain, or a solid start to harvest due to minor concerns about yield, and major concerns about getting downgraded by rain at harvest.

Faba beans

Crops in central and northern NSW and southern Qld are generally looking at above-average yields for fabas, most of which are still flowering.
In parts of southern NSW and Vic, and much of SA, yield potential has been hit hard by frost, and many crops will now struggle to make average yields.
Because of their much greater biomass than lentils, anything less than a 20mm-plus rain would do little rebuild yields following losses of flowers and setting pods.
“Beans are really going to struggle in the current environment,” Pinion Advisory commodity risk manager Chris Heinjus said.
Lentils
ABARES in early September revised up its forecast for new-crop lentils to 1.7 million tonnes (Mt), up around 100,000t from the previous estimate released in June.
Trade sources are now saying 1-1.2Mt seems more likely after successive frosts and ongoing dry conditions hit crops last week, and the weekend brought little to no rain.
However, some frost-hit lentil crops are already showing signs of new growth based on some light and patchy falls in recent days, and subsoil moisture.
Mr Heinjus said some lentil crops were being cut for hay due to poor yield prospects and quality concerns about what frost may have done to setting pods.
“Everything’s a bit challenging in South Australia, and that’s probably the understatement of the year,” Mr Heinjus said.
“A number of lentil crops haven’t even achieved canopy closure.”
Depending on topography and soil moisture, some of those crops exposed crops have dropped all their flowers, with spring frost coming on top of a year to date of decile zero to two rain for many growers.
“There’s no way you can quantify the loss occurred, but in my mind, it’s not insignificant.”
“It doesn’t matter what postcode you go into, there’s frost risk; we’re still within the window…for the next four to six weeks.”
Agronomists across southern NSW, Vic and SA are working with clients, and taking part in workshops, to help growers make assessments after what to do with their crops.
Options are to carry through to grain, cut for hay, or green or brown manure the crops to provide some groundcover ahead of summer.

Lentils

Current-crop lentil prices have risen around $30/t delivered Wimmera packer to $800/t, and around $10/t more for new-crop in the December-January slot.
“Our frost has woken up the overseas market,” ETG pulse trader Todd Krahe said.
“We could have lost a third of the crop through frost and dry conditions.”
Mr Krahe said the precarious nature of the growing season has limited forward selling from the state.
“Growers have been very cautious this year; I’d say 90 percent of our (new-crop volume) is from the big commercial guys.
“Family farmers have been very cautious.”
That said, SA and Vic will still have plenty of lentils to load on to early shipments, with the Lower Eyre Peninsula in SA and Vic Wimmera faring the best in terms of yield outlook.
Mr Heinjus said the container trade may come alive to deal with a crop that is smaller than expected, and may require grading to remove off-spec lentils.
“We might not have the volume in the bulk market to do as much as we’d hoped; the question is: Do we do containers?

Sep 20 - IGC trims global wheat, corn production forecasts
The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production with a downward revision for the European Union largely offset by an improved outlook for Australia. The intergovernmental body, in its monthly update on Thursday, anticipated global wheat production in 2024/25 at 798 million metric tons, down 1 million from its previous forecast although marginally above the prior season's 795 million.

Sep 20 - China soybean imports from US gain pace in August
China's soybean imports from the United States rose 70% in August from a year earlier, customs data showed on Friday, as buyers took advantage of low soybean prices. Shipments from the U.S., its second-biggest supplier, have gained pace since April, though volume remains much smaller than top producer Brazil.

Sep 20 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @196$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP center. Ukraine, September @9'100₴ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, heather-yellow (car) @400€
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow (eurotrain) @395€
· soybean GMO DAP center. Hungary, yellow-leaf (auto) @385€
· soybean oil FCA center. Ukraine, heather @815€

- Europe
· During the period from July 01 to September 15, corn imports to the EU reached 4.3 million tons, which is 14% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 57% (compared to 52% last year), while Brazil's share fell to 12% (against 30% last year). The US share, by contrast, rose to 12.7% compared to 1.5% in the same period last year.
· EU wheat imports decreased by 15% to 1.9 million tons compared to last year. At the same time, Ukraine's share in the structure of imports increased to 66% (compared to 63% last year).
- World
· American farmers from the eastern corn belt note that corn yields are lower than expectations due to leaf diseases and dry conditions at the end of the growing season, which negatively affected the development of plants.
· The long bear commodity market (price reduction), which began a few years ago with an increase in the discount rate in the United States, may change. This week, for the first time in several years, the US discount rate reduction has the potential to support commodity market prices and launch a new upward trend.

- CORN
The international market began to actively discuss reducing the export potential of corn from Ukraine in 2024 and reducing the yield in the EU. The growth of U.S. corn export sales and the weak dollar will contribute to the strengthening of corn prices. CPT prices in the direction of Ukrainian seaports increased by $ 10 compared to last week. On the border, corn was sold at a price of 188-190€ FCA Chop.

- WHEAT
Prices for feed wheat continue to rise after corn. Traders actively procured feed wheat at the price of 190-195$ CPT seaports. At the same time, food wheat customers remained more cautious. However, aggressive sales and dumping on the Turkish and African markets hinder the rise in food wheat prices, not allowing them to rise higher.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower rose to 21'000-21'500₴ with VAT with delivery to plants. Despite the gradual increase in sunflower supply due to the harvesting campaign, farmers continue to restrain oilseed sales, which affects the market situation. Meanwhile, the price of sunflower oil remains stable, fluctuating within 940-950$ CPT port.

- SOYA
World soybeans prices are under pressure because of active harvesting of American soybeans and traders' concern about the weakness of the Chinese economy, which is the largest soybean importer in the world. The decline in the discount rate in the US usually has a positive effect on commodity markets, but the bearish balance in the soybean market is likely to continue to exert pressure during harvest.
Ukrainian producers actively sell soybeans in all directions. The price of GMO-soy decreased by 10€ compared to last week, under the influence of the growth of the offer. In the direction of ports, traders reduce prices by $ 10, which also indicates changes in the market.

Sep 19 - India's wheat curbs insufficient; traders demand stock release
India's curbs on traders and processors are not enough to contain the rise in wheat prices during festival season, and the government needs to release stocks to augment supplies amid import restrictions, industry officials said on Wednesday. New Delhi last week lowered the limit of wheat stocks that traders, and millers can hold, to help boost the grain's availability and moderate prices that are near their highest level in nearly 10 months. 

Sep 19 - FranceAgriMer slashes soft wheat export forecasts after poor crop
FranceAgriMer on Wednesday sharply lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2024/25, after a rain-hit harvest strongly lowered supplies in the European Union's top grain producer. In a supply and demand outlook, the office pegged exports outside the 27-member bloc at 4 million metric tons, down from an initial projection of 7.5 million in July and now 61% below last season's level.

Sep 18 - Brazil's soybean crop seen up 12.8% in 2024/25, Conab says
Brazil's soybean crop is expected to reach 166.28 million metric tons in 2024/25, up 12.82% from the previous season, national crop agency Conab said on Tuesday in a preliminary forecast for the new cycle. The figures came from Conab's "Perspectivas" report, which does not include field research. The agency's first official estimates following field studies are set to be released on Oct. 15.

Sep 17 - Russian wheat export prices little changed as shipments stay high
Russian wheat export prices were little changed last week, although export volumes are expected to still be strong in September after record highs for the month in August. The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board with delivery in October was $216 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $1, IKAR consultancy said.

Sep 17 - Ukraine grain exports at 8.7 mln tons so far in 2024/25, farm ministry says
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season reached 8.7 million metric tons as of Sept. 16, compared with 5.9 million tons by Sept. 20 in the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday. The volume included 4.8 million tons of wheat, 2.5 million tons of corn and 1.2 million tons of barley.

Sep 17 - US corn harvest 9% complete, soybeans 6% done, USDA data shows
The U.S. corn harvest was 9% complete by Sunday and the soybean harvest was 6% complete, government data showed on Monday, each 3 percentage points ahead of their respective five-year averages, while condition ratings were mixed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in a weekly crop progress report rated 65% of the corn crop as good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from a week ago, while 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected a 1-point decline.

Sep 16 - NOPA Aug US soybean crush seen at 171.325 million bushels
The monthly U.S. soybean crush likely fell by more than 6% in August as processors idled plants for seasonal maintenance and repairs ahead of the 2024 harvest, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday. NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 171.325 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Sep 16 - India sharply raises import tax on edible oils to support farmers
India has raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points, the government said on Friday, as the world's biggest edible oil importer tries to help protect farmers reeling from lower oilseed prices. The move could lift edible oil prices and dampen demand and subsequently reduce overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil.

Sep 16 - India removes floor price for basmati rice exports to claw back global share
India removed a floor price for basmati rice exports on Friday, according to a government order, to help farmers struggling with debt and higher costs boost overseas sales of the premium grade just weeks ahead of the arrival of the new-season crop. Last year New Delhi set a floor price, or minimum export price (MEP), of $1,200 a metric ton and later cut the MEP to $950 a ton

Sep 13 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn FCA Chop, Oct @178€
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather-yellow @186$->187$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @8'450₴->8'550₴->8'800₴ VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather @17'800₴
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, heather-yellow @405€->401€
· soybean GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @357€->355€
· soybean non-GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @400€
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Veres @940$

- Ukraine
· As of 12.09, late crops were collected in Ukraine: sunflower - 2 974.6 thousand tons (from 30% of the area), soybeans - 1 845 thousand tons (from 34% of the area), corn - 1 1 102 thousand tons (from 6% of the area).
· As a result of the rF missile strike on the vessel with Ukrainian wheat, it is expected that the rates for sea transportation will increase.

- Europe
· The corn harvest in Romania is expected at 6-8 million tons against an average of 11-12 million tons. Exports will decrease from 4.4 to 2-2.2 million tons.
· In Hungary, the harvest is forecast at 5-5.5 million tons against the average 7-8 million tons, and exports will decrease from 3-4 to 1.5-2 million tons.
· The EU will not receive 3.5-4.2 million tons of NOT GMO corn from Eastern Europe.
· Due to drought and heat in Hungary and Romania in 2024, the level of aflatoxins has been increased, which can affect the quality and export of corn.

- CORN
Prices for corn in Europe rose to 178-180€ per ton, which was loaded into the euro car. Ukrainian corn receives a premium in relation to corn from Eastern Europe, which gives manufacturers of western Ukraine a profitable alternative to sales and exports compared to sea ports. Buyers in the direction of seaports bought grain at a price of $ 185-187 per ton in October. The prize for later months was $2 per ton per month.

- WHEAT
Wheat prices are gradually recovering. The stable demand for forage wheat brings its value closer to food wheat prices and reduced the difference with wheat with a protein content of 11.5%. The restrained offer from manufacturers forces exporters to raise prices. Prices for feed wheat in the direction of Germany and the Netherlands demonstrate premium compared to corn prices.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower remained almost unchanged at 20'500-21'000 UAH with VAT for basic oil content 46%, with delivery to factories. Ukraine has already collected almost 3 million tons of sunflower seeds, which meets the needs of processing plants for about three months. At the same time, manufacturers are restraining sales by maintaining up to 50% of the harvested crop, which is confirmed by the purchase of plants and the actual coverage of their needs by mid-October. The price of sunflower oil increased by 10$ per ton compared to last week in the direction of seaports and was traded within 940-950$ per ton.

- SOYA
Manufacturers actively offer soybeans in all directions, including ports, Europe and the western border. The high content of green grains in soybeans from central Ukraine exceeds the export quality standards. Soybeans prices have increased in ports, remaining stable in the direction of Europe. For GMO soy buyers paid 385-390$ with delivery to ports, the premium for NE-GMO is kept at 50-55$. In Italy, GMO soybeans traded for 400-410€ DAP, the premium for NE-GMO remains 30-35€.

Sep 13 - Huge US corn, soy yields could stave off further increases - Braun
The grain market moved one step closer to settling the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Thursday with fresh projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But the question now is whether the final harvest volumes could be bigger or smaller in a way that could materially change the current fundamental landscape, where supplies are very ample. 

Sep 12 - Argentina soy planting seen climbing as corn crop faces dry weather, plague
Argentine farmers are seen opting for more soy this season as corn planting has been hit by dry weather and fears of disease carried by the leafhopper insect, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. The 2024/25 soy planting area is seen at 17.7 million hectares, up 7.5% from the previous season, according to the exchange. 

Sep 12 - India to buy soybeans to help farmers reeling from losses
India will buy soybeans from farmers of the central state of Madhya Pradesh at state-set support prices to help growers reeling from a crash in domestic rates for the oilseed, a government statement said on Wednesday. India uses soybeans to manufacture soyoil, which helps the country cut its hefty edible oil imports, while the by-product soymeal is used for animal feed and exported mainly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Sep 11 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 23% by Sept 8, data incomplete
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 4.82 million metric tons by Sept. 8, down 23% compared with 6.25 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.32 million tons, down 34% from 2.01 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Sep 11 - Egypt's GASC buys 69,700 metric tons of sunflower oil in international tender
Egypt's state grains buyer GASC said on Tuesday it had bought 69,700 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender at $1,045-$1,047 per ton on C&F basis for payment at sight. GASC also bought 6,500 tons of local soybean oil in Egyptian pounds, it said.

Sep 11 - Ukraine raises expectations for late crop yields
Ukraine's yields on late grain and oilseed crops will not be as badly affected by drought as previously feared, the agriculture minister said on Tuesday. Vitaliy Koval, who was appointed minister last week, told national television that yields of late crops would fall by 10% to 15% compared with 2023. 

Sep 11 - Brazil fires burn protective straw in another setback for soy
Brazilian fires that have burned through straw used by soybean farmers to protect fields from the heat mark another "aggravating" setback for this season's crop, a farmers' group from the world's largest soy supplier said on Tuesday. Aprosoja Brasil President Mauricio Buffon told Reuters in an interview that swathes of straw - dried grain stalks gathered from previous harvests that hold moisture in the soil during dry weather - were burned in fires.

Sep 10 - China Aug soybean imports at record 12.14 mln tons
China brought in a record 12.14 million metric tons of soybeans in August, as traders took advantage of lower prices to stock up amid concerns that trade tension with the United States could intensify if Donald Trump returned as president. Last month's imports were a jump of 29% from 9.43 million tons a year ago, according to Reuters' calculations based on customs data.

Sep 10 - Brazil's first corn planting 15% done, soy not started, AgRural says
Brazilian farmers in the country's key center-south region had planted 15% of the expected area for the 2024/25 first corn crop as of last Thursday, consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up from 8% a week earlier but short of the previous season's 17%. Brazil plants corn all year round and the first crop usually represents about 20% of national output, while the second crop - which is planted later, after soybeans are harvested on the same fields - accounts for some 75%.

Sep 09 - At least 230,000 hectares of sugarcane affected by fires in Sao Paulo state, Brazil's UNICA says
At least 230,000 hectares of sugarcane were affected by August fires in Brazil's Sao Paulo state, industry group UNICA said on Friday in a statement.According to UNICA, the numbers are still partial and companies surveyed represent more than 75% of Sao Paulo's sugarcane production. 

Sep 09 - In Brazil's citrus belt, more than 44% of oranges have greening disease
In the citrus belt of the central Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, the incidence of citrus greening increased for the seventh consecutive year to 44.35% of orchards, a survey by foundation Fundecitrus showed Friday. In 2023, 38.06% of orchards were affected by the disease, which has no proven cure and yields stunted fruit.

Sep 06 - Ukrainian Grains Weekly Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather-list @180$->184$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather @915$
· sunflower oil DAP center. Bulgaria, heather-yellow @1'005$

- Ukraine
· The Government voted for the new Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, focused on support and development of the domestic processing industry, creating a final product and a significant increase in the value of a unit of exported products.
· Farmers began collecting late grains in Ukraine. As of 05.09, late crops were collected in Ukraine: sunflower - 1,389.6 thousand tons, soybean - 1,007.3 thousand tons, corn - 457.5 thousand tons.
· Producers harvested sunflower from 16% of the area with a yield of 17.8 centners per hectare, which is 5% less compared to last year's yield on this date, and soybeans from 20% of the area with a yield of 18.6 centners per hectare, which is 27% less compared to last year's yield on this date.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds, as well as processed products for August amounted to: corn - 645.8 thousand tons, wheat - 2 244.0 thousand tons, barley - 469.5 thousand tons, soybean - 145.6 thousand tons, rape - 794.2 thousand tons, sunflower - 1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 199.1 thousand tons, soybean oil - 26.4 thousand tons, cake - 237.1 thousand tons.

- CORN
Prices for corn in the direction of ports increased by almost $ 10 compared to the price last week. Most Ukrainian producers will start actively harvesting corn from mid-September. Drought and lack of rain dried corn in the field to a moisture index of 13-18% on average in Ukraine.

- WHEAT
Sustainable demand in foreign markets ensured the export of wheat in the period from July to August in the amount of 3.8 million tons. This indicator has already amounted to 23% of the annual export potential, which was agreed for export in the 2024/25 season by the Ministry. If the rate of wheat exports is maintained, Ukraine can reach 80% of the annual export potential as early as December.

- RAPE
The number of buyers in the direction of seaports is gradually decreasing. Most of the rapeseed programs are completed in ports by the end of September. Buyers considered proposals in the direction of seaports within 480-490$, depending on the ISCC certification and the oil content index.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower have stabilized at 20,500-21,000 UAH with VAT, delivered to factories, depending on the delivery location and oil content index. The market is gradually saturated with offers of sunflower. On the Bulgarian market, Ukrainian sunflower was traded at 500-510$ delivered, which, taking into account the cost of logistics from Western Ukraine, gives a parity of 425$ from the farm of Western Ukraine.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans increased by an average of $ 10 in all areas. For soybean GMO buyers offered 380-385$ with delivery to seaports; the prize for soy NE-GMO was almost 50-55$. The Italian direction was traded in the range of 400-410€ DAP for GMO soy; the premium for NE-GMO was 30-35€.

Sep 06 - Soy grown illegally on Brazil's tribal lands finds its way to global markets
Farm cooperatives in Brazil that supply some of the world's biggest multinational agricultural firms are buying soybeans grown illegally on Indigenous reservations in the country, according to tribal leaders and court records, despite the companies' public pledges to respect the land rights and resources of Indigenous peoples. The expansion of commercial farming onto Indigenous lands, which make up about 13% of Brazil's territory, has stirred division and violent conflicts in scores of communities, according to the federal police, the Catholic Church's Indigenous Missionary Council and the Brazilian government agency overseeing Indigenous affairs, FUNAI.

Sep 05 - Taiwan buys estimated 101,700 T wheat of US-origin, traders sayThe Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased an estimated 101,700 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase involved various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast in two consignments.

Sep 05 - Brazil's soybean area set to expand at slowest pace in 18 years, AgRural says
The area planted with soybeans in Brazil will grow in 2024/25 at its slowest pace in almost two decades, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Wednesday, forecasting a modest 0.9% expansion when compared with the previous season. Farmers in the South American country, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, are set to start sowing their 2024/25 crop this month, although bad weather is seen delaying some work in the fields.

Sep 05 - Drought dominates Ukrainian winter grain sowing fields, forecasters say
Ukrainian farmers have started sowing winter grain crops for the 2025 harvest, but the availability of moisture in the soil in most regions of Ukraine is extremely low, state weather forecasters said on Wednesday. In recent years, Ukraine has often experienced a lack of soil moisture during autumn sowing, but farmers are hoping that a wet and mild winter and favourable weather in the spring will allow for a good harvest.

Sep 04 - Ethanol push turns India into corn importer, shaking up global market
A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia's top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains. The jump in import demand comes after India in January hiked the procurement price of ethanol made from corn to drive a shift away from sugarcane-based ethanol for blending in gasoline.

Sep 04 - China hits Canada with anti-dumping probe on canola imports, Ottawa deeply concerned
China said on Tuesday it planned to start an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada, after Ottawa moved to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, lifting prices of domestic rapeseed oil futures to a one-month peak. Canadian Farm Minister Lawrence MacAulay said the move was "deeply concerning".

Sep 03 - Ghana set to raise cocoa farmgate price by nearly 45%, sources say
Ghana will increase the state-guaranteed price paid to its cocoa farmers by nearly 45% for the 2024/25 crop season, two sources with knowledge of the price review told Reuters, to help boost their incomes and deter bean smuggling out of the country. The world's number two cocoa producer raised the farmgate price by more than 58% to 33,120 cedi per metric ton, or 2,070 cedi per 64 kilogram (kg), in April for the rest of the 2023/24 season.

Sep 03 - Argentina rains to give welcome boost to imminent corn planting
Rainfall in Argentina at the weekend is expected to boost the 2024/25 corn crop as farmers begin planting this month, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report published on Monday. As much as 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain fell in some areas of the country's core farmland, with showers particularly benefiting the north of Buenos Aires province and the southern part of Santa Fe province.

Sep 02 - ISO forecasts 2024/25 global sugar deficit of 3.58 mln tons
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit of 3.58 million metric tons in its first assessment of the 2024/25 season on Friday. In a quarterly update, the inter-governmental body also cut its forecast for an expected deficit in the season from October 2023 to September 2024 to 200,000 tons, from 2.95 million seen in its last update in June.

Sep 02 - India braces for another month of above-average rainfall in September
India is forecast to receive above-average rainfall in September after surplus rains in August, the weather department said on Saturday. The rainfall in September is likely to be more than 109% of a 50-year average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

Aug 30 - Ukrainian Grains Weekly Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @180$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, September-list @182$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @372$
· soybean GMO DAP border, Ukraine, Heather @383$
· rapeseed NE-GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Veres @500$

- Ukraine
· Ukrainian producers adapted to market realities and switched to cheaper production technologies, which reduced the financial burden and the need to quickly sell agricultural products after harvesting.
- World
· Continuing the strike in Argentina until 09.09 causes delay in export shipments.
· Discussions on reducing China's import dependence could significantly affect American and Ukrainian exports.
· Recent forecasts from Canada showed a slight increase in wheat production to 34.4 million tons, which is slightly higher than expectations.
· The quality of the French wheat crop was significantly reduced due to excessive rains affecting the protein content and other quality indicators.
· The projected Australian wheat production increased to 30.5 million tons due to better yield forecasts in the western territories.

- CORN
There is a renewed interest in corn in the direction of Europe. Returning traders from August holidays in the absence of a bid from Eastern Europe creates a strain for some European importers. On the western border, corn was traded by FCA Chop at levels of 170-175€ with the shipment of the European train in October-December. In the direction of seaports, buyers were ready to buy corn at levels of 175-180$. The offer from manufacturers is very limited, and most of them are not ready to sell for harvest.

- WHEAT
Wheat prices have undergone seasonal correction against the background of an active offer in August. Seasonal August and September are not favorable for wheat sales. For wheat with a protein of 11%, Italian buyers were willing to pay 172-178€ on the western border of FCA Chop. In the direction of ports, wheat prices decreased by 3-5$ per ton compared to last week's levels.

- RAPE
The strengthening of the euro and the resumption of rapeseed prices on MATIF allowed prices in dollars to rise to 500$ in the direction of seaports. The demand for rapeseed in the direction of the western border at 410€ FCA for oil content is 40% with an additional premium for oil content.

- SUNFLOWER
The increase in prices of palm oil and the limited supply of sunflower from the Ukrainian manufacturer increased prices from processors. Many of them do not have sufficient coverage since September, which creates a significant strain and willingness to raise prices.

- SOYA
Soybean prices remained almost unchanged compared to last week. A slight strengthening can be noted in the direction of Europe on soybean NE-GMO. In the direction of the Serbian market, you can sell soybean NE-GMO at levels of 470-480€.

Aug 30 - Favourable weather swells outlook for Australia wheat harvest
Australia should produce over 31 million metric tons of wheat in the upcoming harvest, around two million tons more than forecast earlier and significantly more than in 2023/24, after rain in major crop regions boosted yields, analysts said. Australia is the world's third-biggest wheat exporter and bumper production is likely to pressure global prices already trading close to their lowest in four years.

Aug 30 - India's monsoon expected to be prolonged, threatening ripe crops, sources say
India's monsoon rains are likely to be prolonged into late September this year due to the development of a low-pressure system in the middle of the month, two weather department officials told Reuters. Above-normal rainfall due to the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon could damage India's summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September.

Aug 29 - As sweltering summers ravage crops, Japan bets on heat-resistant rice
Grappling with a rice shortage after extreme weather ravaged last year's crop, Japan is hoping new heat-resistant varieties of its staple food can help stave off future supply shocks. Last summer's high temperatures and dry conditions led to lower rice yields in key growing regions and damaged the quality of grains, contributing to the lowest inventories seen in 25 years, according to official data.

Aug 29 - Brazil's braking of soy expansion unlikely to prevent global stock swell -Braun
Brazil’s seemingly unstoppable expansion in soybean plantings over the last several years has cemented the country as the world’s source for beans, as it now accounts for nearly 60% of all exports versus around 40% just a decade ago. This year’s price slump has the oilseed looking less attractive than normal to Brazilian producers, though a record crop and the further padding of global supplies may be inevitable.

Aug 28 - Argentine farmers eye pivot to soy on corn plague fears, rain outlook
Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans in the current 2024/25 season, trimming the area dedicated to corn after that crop's last harvest was hit by a devastating insect plague and with rain forecasts looking rosier for soy. The trend could see the largest expansion in soy planting in over a decade, analysts said, potentially boosting supplies globally with prices already subdued. Argentina is the world's top exporter of processed soymeal and oil.

Aug 28 - 'Nature is punishing us': Drought imperils farmers and bees in Mexico's north
In the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, residents and farmers have anxiously watched and waited for clouds to bring rain to refill dried-out dams, water wells and lagoons. They've waited so far in vain. The largest state of Mexico has a dry or semi-dry climate at the best of times, but has faced unusually low rainfall levels in recent years. Near the town of Buenaventura, the Las Lajas dam is near empty and the little water left is infested with dead fish.

Aug 27 - Biggest takeaways on US corn, soy crops after annual crop tour - Braun
Record yields are already predicted for U.S. corn and soybean crops, but some of the estimates, particularly for soybeans, are becoming rather lofty. Last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour confirmed massive pod populations in the soybean fields, though overall corn yields were not the best ever measured.

Aug 27 - Argentina rains still not enough to boost wheat crop
Recent rains in Argentina's agricultural heartland were not enough to lift the wheat crop, which has withered on lack of precipitation, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Monday. Argentina is a major wheat exporter worldwide, with an estimated 6.3 million hectares planted for the 2024/25 season. However, winter frosts and a lack of rain in the center and western agricultural areas has hit the crop.

Aug 26 - US crop tour forecasts record-large soy crop above government estimate
The U.S. soybean harvest will be even bigger than the U.S. government's record forecast, advisory service Pro Farmer said on Friday, though it forecast a smaller corn crop than the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Near-perfect growing weather in most areas of the world's top corn exporter and No. 2 soybean exporter boosted bets on big crops, keeping futures prices of both commodities near four-year lows. The lower cost of growing soy versus corn, floods in some areas, and a timely winter-wheat harvest encouraged farmers to plant more soybeans than last year.

Aug 26 - South Korea’s MFG buys about 67,000 T of corn in tender
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Friday, European traders said. One consignment was bought at an estimated $234.70 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included, plus a $1.20 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Aug 23 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @8'400 UAH with VAT
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @176$
· DAP soybeans Danube, Ukraine, Oct @17'700 UAH with VAT
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @495$ with VAT
· DAP rapeseed cake zh. Latvia, sickle @294€

· The ProFarmer tour in the US manufacturing regions confirms the market's expectations for a significant harvest of soybean and corn.
· The participants of the ProFarmer tour identified the highest yield in Illinois in 32 years of tour history at 13.7 tons per hectare, which exceeds the average level last year of 13.02 tons per hectare.
- World
· SovEcon updated the forecast for corn harvest in pF to the lowest level since 2018 - 11.9 million tons, compared to 13.4 million tons last year.
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that Argentina's next-crop corn crop area will be 17% less than last year, due to concerns about the outbreak of the cicada.

- CORN
The EU imported 2.9 million tons of corn from 01.07, which is 27% more than in the same period last year. Ukraine's share of 64%, or 1.9 million tons, compared to last year's figure of 1.4 million tons over the same period. It is worth noting the growth in the share of imports of corn from the United States to 10% in the structure of imports, compared to 0.5% last year, and Serbia - to 8% compared to 0.8% last year for the same period. The deferred offer of corn increases.

- WHEAT
The share of Ukraine in total wheat imports to the EU decreased to 56% against 63% last year for the period from 01.07 to 18.08. The share of Canada and Moldova in total EU imports increased to 35% compared to 14% last year. Against the background of problems with high-quality wheat, European buyers are actively considering the offers of food wheat from Ukraine.

- RAPE
Imports of rapeseed to the EU from 01.07 amounted to 492 thousand tons, which is 39% more than last year. The main share, 59%, of imports was Australian rapeseed, the share of Ukraine amounted to 140 thousand tons, or 28%. Significant saturation of the EU market with rapeseed from Australia, Moldova, Serbia and Kazakhstan compensates for the shortage of crops in Ukraine.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower continue to keep at 490-500$ with VAT and delivery to the plant. Manufacturers postpone the sale of oil, not allowing the market to be saturated with offers and adjusted in price. According to plant representatives, at current prices for sunflower processing becomes economically unprofitable. Sunflower oil traded at 910$ CPT seaports for the period until November without premiums for later periods.

- SOYA
From 01.07 to 18.08, the EU imported 1.6 million tons of soybeans, which is 16% less than the same period last year. 89% of imports amounted to soybeans from Brazil and the United States, while the share of Ukraine is 7.5%, or 123 thousand tons in absolute terms of the reporting period. Soybean prices have decreased against the backdrop of an active soybean supply from North and South America.

Aug 23 - Crop tour finds record Iowa corn crop prospects; Minnesota sub-par
Iowa's corn yield potential set a new record high for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour while excessive June rains drove Minnesota's corn yield prospects to the lowest levels since 2012, scouts on an annual tour of top U.S. production states found on Thursday. The tour projected Iowa's corn yield at 192.79 bushels per acre (bpa), well above the 2023 tour average of 182.80 bpa for the largest U.S. corn state and above the tour's three-year average of 185.79 bpa.

Aug 23 - Argentine rains boost wheat but delay sunflower planting
Argentina's current wheat season should continue to improve thanks to recent rainy days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a report on Thursday, though the wet weather slowed the start of the country's sunflower campaign. The South American nation is a major world supplier of wheat and has planted some 6.3 million hectares for the 2024/25 season.

Aug 22 - Crop tour finds huge Illinois corn yield potential, big soy pod counts
Corn yield prospects in Illinois are the biggest in the Pro Farmer crop tour's 32-year history and the state's soybean pod count is the largest seen on the tour since 2000, scouts on the annual U.S. Midwest tour reported on Wednesday. The crop tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 204.14 bushels per acre (bpa), a record that surpassed the tour's previous high set in 2014.

Aug 22 - China's red-hot wheat imports to cool on local output gains, slowing demand
China's wheat buying spree is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 as higher domestic output and declining flour consumption reduce import demand in the world biggest consumer of the grain. China has made record wheat purchases in recent years and a reduction in buying is expected to put additional pressure on global prices which are trading close to their lowest in four years amid plentiful supply, traders and analysts said.

Aug 21 - Crop tour finds massive Indiana soybean potential, corn at 3-yr high
Indiana's soybean pod count is the largest seen on the Pro Farmer crop tour in 22 years and the state's corn yield prospects are at a three-year high, scouts on the annual U.S. Midwest tour reported Tuesday. The four-day tour of top U.S. grain and oilseed producing states, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the average number of soybean pods in a 3-foot by 3-foot square in Indiana at 1,409.02 pods - the most reported since 2002, tour officials said.

Aug 21 - Argentina's next corn crop seen covering 17% less farmland amid pest fears
Argentina's upcoming 2024/25 corn crop is seen covering 6.3 million hectares, down 17% compared to the previous cycle as pest and weather concerns mount, the Buenos Aires grains exchange announced on Tuesday. The smaller estimate - the exchange's first forecast for the 2024/25 season - comes amid fears that the crop will be hurt by the impact of a costly leafhopper insect plague.

Aug 20 - China July soy imports from US jump threefold, customs data shows
China's soybean imports from the U.S. jumped threefold in July from a year earlier, as the U.S. growing season picks up, but Brazilian supplies still took the bulk of the market share, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 475,392 metric tons of the oilseed from the United States last month, compared with 142,129 metric tons a year earlier, according to the data.

Aug 20 - Raw sugar prices to rebound but still post annual loss
Global raw sugar prices are expected to regain ground during the remainder of 2024 but still end with a small annual loss of less than 3%, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Monday. The sweetener is set to close the year at 20 cents per lb, up 10.9% from Friday's close but still 2.8% below levels at the end of last year, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 19 - China's biodiesel producers seek new outlets as hefty EU tariffs bite
Chinese biodiesel producers are seeking new outlets in Asia for their exports and exploring producing other biofuels as supply to the European Union, their biggest buyer, dries up ahead of anti-dumping tariffs, biofuel executives and analysts said. The EU will impose provisional anti-dumping duties of between 12.8% and 36.4% on Chinese biodiesel from Friday, hitting over 40 companies including leading producers Zhejiang Jiaao, Henan Junheng and Longyan Zhuoyue Group in an export business that was worth $2.3 billion last year.

Aug 19 - Indonesia raises price cap in palm oil domestic scheme, trade ministry says
Indonesia has revised its rules on its palm oil domestic market obligation scheme, raising the price cap in a bid to improve supplies of cheap cooking oil, the trade ministry said. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm-oil exporter, obliges producers to sell a portion of their output to the local market at a capped price in order to gain export permits.

Aug 16 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather-yellow @183$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @380$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Aug @490$

- Ukraine
· USDA updated in August the forecast for the harvest in Ukraine: wheat - 21.6 million tons (preliminary assessment - 19.5 million tons), corn - 27.2 million tons (preliminary assessment — 27.7 million tons), soybean - 6.8 million tons (preliminary assessment — 5.5 million tons).
· As of 15.08, Ukraine collected wheat - 21.6 million tons (100% of the area), barley - 5.48 million tons (100% of the area), peas - 459 thousand tons (99% of the area), rape - 3.35 million tons (99% of the area).

- CORN
The activity of the new crop corn sales by the producers decreased. Buyers are still undecided on the trading program for corn, and producers are focused on soybean sales. The strengthening of the euro against the American currency leads to a decrease in prices in the direction of Europe. Prices in US dollars remain unchanged in the direction of ports compared to last week's prices.

- WHEAT
Prices for wheat remained unchanged compared to last week. It is worth noting the increased demand for feed wheat with a protein index of 10% or higher. The difference between forage and food wheat tends to be narrowed.

- RAPE
Price levels for rapeseed increased in comparison with the previous week due to the renewal of quotations on the stock exchange MATIF. U.S. dollar prices gained additional support and rose in the port direction due to the devaluation of the U.S. currency.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower of new crop is traded at 490-500 USD with VAT in the direction of ports, depending on the oil content. Southern regions began harvesting sunflower with record low oil of 33-36% on dry matter. The main reason for this was the drought and high temperatures, the manufacturers note.

- SOYA
After the USDA data is updated and Ukraine soybeans have grown to 2.9 million hectares, the oilseed crop is projected at 6.8 million tons against a preliminary estimate of 5.5 million tons. A significant increase in soybean crop is already reflected in the active proposals of producers for September-November, which adds pressure on prices in conditions of limited demand. Producers prefer the sale of soybeans, not corn.

Aug 16 - IGC cuts global wheat crop outlook on poor French harvest
The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production driven largely by a downward revision for France which has just endured one of the worst wheat harvests in decades. The inter-governmental body, in its monthly update on Thursday, forecast global wheat output at 799 million metric tons, down from a previous projection of 801 million although still above the prior season's 794 million.

Aug 16 - Dry weather to hamper Argentina wheat crop in coming days
Dry weather will continue to weigh on Argentina's wheat crop over the next few days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, warning the crop in the country's western farm regions had already been bit by recent cold, dry weather. Argentina is a major world exporter of wheat, with the exchange estimating some 6.3 million hectares planted for the 2024/25 season. Planting of the crop has been completed.

 

Aug 15 - The subcommission approved the extension of the duties on exports of sunflower seeds and soybeans until autumn 2026 (INTERFAX)

The Subcommission on Customs-Tariff and Non-Tariff Regulation, Protective Measures in Foreign Trade of the Government Commission for Economic Development and Integration approved the extension for the period from September 1, 2024 to August 31, 2026 of the validity of export customs duties on sunflower seeds in the amount of 50%, but not less than 32 thousand rubles per ton; soybeans - in the amount of 20%, but not less than $100 per ton, the Ministry of Economic Development told Interfax.

It is planned to extend the "floating" export customs duties on sunflower oil and sunflower meal for the same period.

In addition, the Sub-Commission supported the decision to impose export duties on rapeseed for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 August 2026 at a rate of 30 per cent, but not less than Euro165 per ton. This decision replaced the current temporary ban on the export of rapeseed.
"These measures were discussed with businesses and are aimed at balancing the domestic market and restraining consumer prices. The relevant draft resolution will be submitted to the government in due course," the press office said.

Tariffs on sunflower, soybean, sunflower oil and meal, extended a year ago, were reported to end on 31 August 2024.

Russia introduced floating tariffs on the export of sunflower oil and meal on September 1, 2021. At first they were calculated in dollars. Since July 2022, duties are defined in rubles. The duty rate for sunflower oil is 70% of the difference between the base price (82,500 rubles per ton) and the reference price (the arithmetic average of market prices for a month). Export duty for sunflower meal is calculated using the formula as the difference between the reference price (arithmetic mean of market prices for a month) and the base price (15,875 rubles per ton), multiplied by the amount of the adjustment coefficient (0.7).

Aug 15 - US farmers grow record soy crop, ditch pricier corn
The lower cost of growing soy versus corn, floods in some areas and a quick winter-wheat harvest drove the U.S. government to raise its soybean-production forecast to a record high this week, farmers and analysts said. A record harvest from the world's second-biggest soybean producer would contribute to larger supplies of the oilseed, used to make biofuels and livestock feed. Global grains markets are in oversupply after several years of disruption and tight supplies due to the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.

Aug 15 - Chicago soybeans may have found fair market value if demand can be trusted - Braun
Soybean prices were already on their way to a historical downward correction before suspicions of a record U.S. crop were confirmed this week, and the latest price levels could be satisfactory if demand is cooperative. But that is a big "if." CBOT November soybean futures notched an all-time low on Wednesday of $9.55-1/4 per bushel, the most-active contract’s lowest level since Sept. 2, 2020.

Aug 14 - Egypt in talks to buy large volume of wheat from sellers including Russia, traders say
Egypt's state commodities buyer GASC is in talks to buy 30 cargoes or up to 1.8 million metric tons of wheat from sellers including Russia, traders in Europe and the Middle East said. The talks come after one of the world's top wheat importers failed to buy supplies from October 2024 to April 2025 in one go on Monday through its biggest ever tender. Egypt had sought to lock in relatively low wheat prices with the giant tender, but only accepted offers for less than a tenth of what it needs. 

 

Aug 14 - USDA crop forecasts for Ukraine exceed domestic estimates
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's August forecast for Ukraine's corn production exceeds domestic estimates as it does not fully take into account the impact of a damaging heatwave, Ukrainian officials, analysts and traders said. The USDA report shows Ukraine is expected to harvest 27.2 million metric tons of corn, while domestic analysts and brokers anticipate 24-to-25 million tons.

Aug 13 - June barley exports surge to 725,085t, sorghum drops (Grains Central)

- AUSTRALIA exported 725,085 tonnes of barley and 249,071t of sorghum in June, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

- The feed barley component at 485,276t was more than double the 216,118t shipped in May, with shipments to China at 384,002t accounting for 79 percent of the total. The second-biggest destination for Australia’s June-shipped feed barley was Japan on 75,600t, followed by Vietnam on 17,855t.

- Malting exports at 239,809t also surged from the May total of 147,507t, with China on 146,173t accounting for 61pc of the June figure. Mexico on 33,000t, followed closely by Vietnam on 31,295t, were the second and third-biggest markets respectively for June-shipped malting barley. China was also the major market for June-shipped sorghum, taking 220,871t, or 89pc, of the 249,071t total. Japan on 22,064t was the second-biggest market for June-shipped sorghum, followed by Taiwan on 4380t.

Aug 13 - Rain-hit crops create triple whammy for French grain farmers
Jean Lefevre like many French farmers has just endured one of the worst wheat harvests in decades as rain barely stopped from the moment he started sowing his grain last October to when he started gathering the crop last month. France, the European Union's largest grain producer, has experienced particularly wet weather in the past year, including a month of continuous rain in October-November, the wettest spring ever and violent storms last month.

Aug 13 - Big crops to grow even bigger? Maybe so, based on trends in US corn, soy yields - Braun
Government data on Monday indicated enormous U.S. corn and soybean harvests are on deck, but will those estimates only grow larger, or are they the highest that will be seen this season? It is often said that big crops tend to get bigger, but the burden of proof can be heavier when the original numbers are already lofty. The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed 2024 U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.2 bpa, both above pre-report trade estimates of 182.1 and 52.5, respectively.

Aug 12 - Algeria purchased 630,000 tons of Black Sea wheat at the tender (OAIC)
The Algerian state agency OAIC bought about 630,000 tons of flour wheat at a tender last week at a price of $250.5-252/t C&F, Reuters reports with reference to traders from the EU.
According to the terms of the tender, shipments of wheat from the main supply regions, including Europe, will take place in October, and from South America or Australia - in September.

Algeria does not disclose the details of the tender, so the final data on volumes and prices may change. Market participants believe that the low price may indicate the purchase of wheat from the Russian Federation or other Black Sea countries.

Algeria is among the top five buyers of Russian wheat. In 2023/24 MR, it imported about 2.3 million tons of wheat.
We will remind that at the previous tender on July 18, Algeria purchased 700-750 thousand tons of wheat, presumably of Ukrainian, Russian and Bulgarian origin, at a price of $241-244/t C&F.

Aug 12 - High hopes in Israel for 'super hero' cocoa that survived frontline conditions
Farming can develop in mysterious ways. Israeli researchers learned about that when the war in Gaza seemed to have all but wrecked their work on a more resilient strain of the cocoa plant that could help alleviate a global shortage of the beans. Just days after Israel's agriculture research centre, the Volcani Institute, sent 140 seedlings to a facility in southern Israel to study how this tropical plant could be grown in dry conditions, the area came under attack by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

Aug 09 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Commodity Report ( SPIKE BROKERS )

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @186$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @188$
· FCA corn w. the border of Ukraine, Jan-Feb @180€
· FCA corn w. border of Ukraine, birch @181€
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @200$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @180$
· sunflower DAP center. Bulgaria, sickle @470$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @487$ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Veres @402$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @395$

- Ukraine
· As of 08.08 in Ukraine were collected: wheat - 20.9 million tons, barley - 5.2 million tons, peas - 457 thousand tons, rape - 3.3 million tons.
- Europe
· Imports of grains and oilseeds to the EU from 01.07.24 to 04.08.24 amounted to: wheat - 607 thousand tons (last year 543 thousand tons), corn - 2.1 million tons (1.6 million tons), barley - 209 thousand tons (191 thousand tons), soybeans - 1.1 million tons (1.3 million tons), rape - 353 thousand tons (234 thousand tons), sunflower - 33 thousand tons (29 thousand tons).
· Imports of products of processing of crops amounted to: soybean meal - 1.7 million tons (1.6 million tons), rapeseed meal - 13 thousand tons (77 thousand tons), sunflower meal - 146 thousand tons (237 thousand tons), soybean oil - 39 thousand tons (99 thousand tons), rapeseed oil - 3 thousand tons (31 thousand tons), palm oil - 228 thousand tons (340 thousand tons).

- CORN
Corn of the new crop is in stable demand. Delivery for October-January was traded to ports of $184-188, and on the border with the EU, the bidding took place at €180-181, with loading in wagons with delivery in January-March. Producers, assessing the potential of the crop after the July temperature stress, gradually form a forward sales book and organize logistics.

- WHEAT
The spread between forage and food wheat remains at up to $20. Producers are holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices, leading to the accumulation of deferred supply and creating additional pressure on the price of wheat in September, which is traditionally the period of the lowest prices.

- RAPE
The stock prices for rapeseed have already twice sharply decreased from the peak of 510€, reached on July 5. The similarity of this year's fluctuations with last year causes traders doubts about the possible further increase in prices. The only supporting factor for dollar prices remains the devaluation of the US currency against the euro, which helps keep prices at a stable level in the direction of ports.

- SUNFLOWER
The new sunflower crop is traded in the range of $460-490 with VAT, depending on the region of delivery to the plant. Processors are actively competing for raw materials to ensure the smooth operation of their capacities at the beginning of the new season.

- SOYA
The spread between GMOs and non-GMOs of soy remains at around $40. Soya is actively traded both in the direction of ports and on the western border. At the same time, in the direction of Europe, there is an increased demand for non-GMO soybeans.

Aug 09 - Strategie Grains reduces EU wheat forecasts on poor yields
Strategie Grains has sharply lowered its monthly forecast for European Union soft wheat output and exports to its lowest in six years, citing worse than expected yields in rain-hit France and Germany. The consultancy's projection for the EU's main cereal crop was reduced to 116.5 million metric tons, down from the 122.3 million tons forecast in July and now 8.4% below last season's crop.

Aug 09 - Cocoa swollen shoot disease worsening in Ghana, poses long-term threat
Ghana's cocoa sector faces a long-term threat from worsening swollen shoot disease as recent data indicates the world's second largest grower of the bean is not managing to contain the outbreak, traders and experts said. Spread by small insects called mealybugs that eat leaves, buds and flowers, swollen shoot initially allows trees to produce, but at a reduced rate. After five to 10 years however, it kills them.

Aug 08 - Cooler weather threatens Argentine wheat with frost, exchange says
Cooler-than-expected temperatures in Argentina next week could trigger frosts and damage crops in one of the world's largest grain-exporting nations, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Wheat is likely to be the worst-hit major crop, as farmers in the South American nation have yet to start planting their corn and soybean crops for the 2024/25 season.

Aug 08 - Cocoa prices to head higher by end-2024 amid record deficit
Cocoa prices are expected to continue heading higher this year due to persistent supply shortages that will leave them at more than double last year's levels by the end of 2024, a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts showed on Wednesday. London cocoa was seen ending the year at 7,600 pounds a metric ton, up 40% from Tuesday's close and 125% higher than at the end of 2023, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 07 - Egypt bets big with historic 3.8 million metric ton wheat tender
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced on Tuesday a massive tender for 3.8 million metric tons of wheat to cover imports between October 2024 and April 2025, its largest ever according to traders. Egypt has been one of the world's largest wheat importers, mainly to provide subsidised bread for tens of millions of its people. GASC alone imports some 5.5 million metric tons of wheat annually for bread subsidies.

Aug 07 - China July soybean imports rise 2.9% on-year, customs data show
China's soybean imports rose 2.9% in July from a year earlier, spurred by lower prices and fears of heightened trade tensions between Beijing and the U.S. if Donald Trump returns as president. The world's top soybean buyer imported 9.85 million metric tons in July, customs data showed on Wednesday, less than traders' expectations that arrivals would reach 12 million-13 million tons.

Aug 06 - Heatwave could cut Ukraine corn harvest by 6 mln tons, producers say
A record heatwave in July across most Ukrainian regions may reduce the 2024 corn harvest by about 6 million metric tons from last year's level, Ukrainian producers' group the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) has warned. It gave no forecast for the resultant harvest total but its prediction is in line with a forecast last week from the Ukrainian grain traders union UGA, which foresaw a 2024 corn harvest of 23.4 million tons compared with 29.6 million in 2023.

Aug 06 - Bunge, ADM to benefit as US farmers sell cheap crops in 'haul of shame'
A spike in bargain-basement crop sales by U.S. farmers needing to make room in storage bins for autumn harvests could boost profitability at grain handlers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global. Both companies, which trade and process soybeans and corn and benefit from geographic differences in supply, recently flagged slow farmer selling as a drag on second-quarter earnings.

Aug 05 - Malaysian palm oil stocks seen down, first time in four months
Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest producer, is expected to drop in July for the first time after three consecutive months of rise, a Reuters survey showed on Monday. Malaysia's palm oil stocks were seen at 1.80 million metric tons, down 1.17% from June-end, according to the median estimate of 11 traders, planters and analysts polled by Reuters.

Aug 05 - World food prices ease slightly in July, UN says
The United Nations world food price index eased slightly in July according to data released on Friday, with a decline in the index for cereals offset in part by increases for meat, vegetable oils and sugar. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 120.8 points in July, down from 121.0 in June. The June reading was revised after initially being given as 120.6.

Aug 05 - Australia exports 39,718t chickpeas, 140,549t lentils in June (Grain Central)

- AUSTRALIA exported 39,718 tonnes of chickpeas and 140,549t of lentils in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The chickpea figure is down 9 percent from the May total of 43,849t, despite the uptick in exports to India and Nepal.
Drops for the month included Pakistan, down 2698t, and the United Arab Emirates, down 3500t.

- Lentil exports in June were up 8pc from the May figure of 130,295t, with rises over the month of 5453t from Bangladesh, 2578t from Egypt and 2905t from Nepal the main drivers.

- Shipping stems indicate bulk exports of lentils have slowed right down this month to indicate Australia’s rundown on stocks as Canadian new-crop hits the supply chain.
On chickpeas, slots booked indicate around 300,000t in bulk alone will be shipped in the coming quarter as harvest rolls south from Central Queensland to northern New South Wales.
Chickpea crop conditions are very good to excellent in all major desi-growing regions.
Conditions for lentils are generally less favourable, with some districts in South Australia and Victoria needing good rain in coming weeks to ensure average yields are achieved.

Aug 02 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @200$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @182$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec-Sich @189$->186$
· rape NE-GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Aug @485$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @495$ with VAT
· Soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-Dec @390$

- Ukraine
· The indicator of exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds, as well as processed products for July is: corn - 1 560.2 thousand mt, wheat - 1 545.4 thousand mt, barley - 580.8 thousand mt, soybean - 226.6 thousand mt, rape - 277.7 thousand mt, sunflower - 3.5 thousand mt, sunflower oil - 438.9 thousand mt, soybean oil - 29.6 thousand mt, rapeseed oil - 10.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 109 thousand mt. mt, soybean cake - 63.4 thousand mt.
· UGA updated the potential yield of grains and oilseeds to 71.8 million tons, which is 2.8 million tons less than the previous estimate.

- CORN
The 2023 corn harvest continues to be traded, but there is a low activity of market participants, as the focus has shifted to corn of the new crop. Given the reduced demand from external buyers, the liquidity has decreased slightly and on CPT conditions. Buyers' price offers are currently in the range of 178-184$ CPT ports, depending on the delivery period.
The demand for corn from European buyers remains inactive. In the direction of the western border of Ukraine corn can be sold at 175-185€ FCA.

- WHEAT
The trading activity during the week was significant against the background of wheat price correction in deep-sea ports. Buyers' attention is mainly focused on feed wheat for spot deliveries in the range of 178-182$, depending on the protein content. The spread between food and forage wheat remains about 20$.

- RAPE
A significant fluctuation in the price of rapeseed on MATIF during the week increased the number of offers and on the physical market. The rapeseed continues to be actively traded; from the buyers in the direction of the port, the price offers are in the range of 470-495$ CPT ports. In the regions prices fluctuate within 440-460$ CPT elevator/plant, equivalent without VAT. The demand of European buyers remains stable.

- SUNFLOWER
The new sunflower crop demonstrates significant trading activity. The main direction of implementation is the domestic market with delivery to the plants at 450-475$ with VAT. In the direction of ports prices are within 430-435$ CPT. Demand from Europe is also observed, but the supply is quite limited.

- SOYA
Soybean prices remained unchanged compared to last week. Trade is concentrated more towards Ukrainian ports. Demand on the western border is not very active, as many buyers have covered the forward need in the past three months and are currently less active in procurement.

Aug 02 - Russia maintains grain harvest forecast despite bad weather
Russia has maintained its official grain harvest forecast for this year at 132 million metric tons despite adverse weather conditions across many grain-producing regions, said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees the agriculture sector. Extreme weather events such as early spring frosts, floods, and summer heat have affected this year's harvest outlook in some key producing areas of Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter. 

 

Aug 02 - Moderate rains likely to boost Argentina's wheat crop in coming days
Moderate rains in Argentina's farming heartland over the next few days are expected to benefit the 2024/25 wheat crop, which has suffered from dry and cold conditions, the Buenos Aires grain exchange (BdeC) said Thursday. Argentina is a major global wheat exporter and, according to the grains exchange, planting for the current agricultural campaign was completed last week, covering 6.3 million hectares nationwide.

 

Aug 01 - USDA June soy crush estimated at 184.584 million bushels, analysts sayThe U.S. soybean crush likely slowed in June to 5.538 million short tons, or 184.584 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Thursday. If the average of eight estimates is realized, it would be down 3.8% from the 192.0 million bushels crushed in May but up 5.8% from the June 2023 crush of 174.5 million bushels. 

 

Aug 01 - Grain traders union UGA cuts Ukraine 2024 grain and oilseeds crop forecast
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA cut Ukraine's 2024 combined grain and oilseeds crop forecast by 2.8 million metric tons to 71.8 million tons due to a heatwave, the union said on Wednesday. UGA said the 2024 harvest could include 23.4 million tons of corn, 19.8 million tons of wheat, 4.95 million tons of barley, 12.8 million tons of sunseed, 4.8 million tons of soybeans and 4.3 million tons of rapeseed.

Jul 31 - Domestic wheat prices soar for first time since May (SovEkon)
- By the end of last week, the prices of class 4 Russian wheat (with protein 12.5%; excluding VAT) in deep-sea ports rose by 1,000 rubles compared to last week to 15,500-16,000 rubles per ton. This is the strongest growth since late May. Russian quotes were supported by the growth in demand from exporters.

- Grade 4 wheat quotations in the South rose by 650 rubles to 14,550 rubles per ton, while in the Center - remained unchanged by 11,600 rubles per ton.

- Export demand for wheat in the South has increased in recent weeks amid strong sales. As of July 30, the volume of concluded sales contracts amounted to 3.2 million tons, compared to 2.6 million tons a month earlier.

- In July, Russia also actively sold wheat on tenders. In a July tender, Egypt's GASC purchased 720,000 tons of Russian wheat. Algeria's OAIC agency has purchased 600,000-800,000 tons of wheat, part of which will be supplied from Russia.

- SovEkon estimates July wheat exports at 3.2m tons, compared to 4.5m tons a year earlier and 3.0m tons on average over five years.

Jul 31 - Rain-hit French wheat crop could plunge to 26 mln T, producers say
France's main wheat crop may only reach 26 million metric tons this year, a level not seen since the 1980s, as harvest results confirm a plunge in yields following months of heavy rain, producers group AGPB said on Tuesday. A poor harvest in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has been widely anticipated after the wet weather cut autumn planting before hampering crop development.

Jul 31 - ADM misses profit estimates on US demand dip and lower crush margins
Global grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co shares dropped 2% on Tuesday after the company missed Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit, which were hit by lower soy crush margins and waning demand for U.S. crops. Such lower profits reflect the challenge global grain merchants and oilseed processors now face, as crop prices hover at nearly four-year lows due to a hefty global stockpiles of corn and soybeans.

Jul 30 - Freezing temperatures threaten Argentina's wheat crops
Freezing temperatures in Argentina's main agricultural region on Monday aggravated the condition of the 2024/25 wheat crop, which is already suffering from the impact of a major drought, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report. Argentina is a key global wheat exporter, but due to a significant lack of rainfall in its agricultural core, the grains exchange earlier this month reduced its forecast for the area planted with wheat by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares.

Jul 30 - Strategie Grains cuts EU rapeseed and sunseed crop forecasts again
Strategie Grains has again reduced its monthly forecasts for this year's rapeseed and sunflower seed harvests in the European Union as unfavourable weather continued to affect the bloc's main oilseed crops, the consultancy said. The firm cut its outlook for the EU's 2024 rapeseed harvest for the third time in a row.

Jul 29 - Only half of French soft wheat crop in good condition, FranceAgriMer says
Ratings of French soft wheat fell again last week to hit another eight-year low with now only half of the crop in good condition, while harvesting remained well behind average as wet weather throughout the cycle continued to weigh on crops. An estimated 50% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition by July 22, down from 52% a week earlier and 78% a year ago, farm office FranceAgriMer said in cereal crop data.

Jul 29 - US court rejects EPA denials of 2022 small refinery biofuel waivers
A federal appeals court said on Friday it rejected the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision in 2022 to deny small oil refineries temporary waivers from the nation’s biofuels blending program, and sent the matter back to the agency for review. The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia is a win for the refining industry, which has long opposed federal requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard that they add biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into the nation’s fuel.

Jul 26 - Recent rains allow Argentina to complete wheat planting in main farmland
Recent rains have allowed Argentine farmers to finish wheat planting for the current harvesting season in the country's agricultural heartland, according to a report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) released on Thursday. While wheat planting is complete in all major farmland for the 2024/25 cycle, planting over 6.3 million hectares dedicated to the key grains crop nationwide is 98.5% complete, the weekly report from the BdeC showed.

Jul 26 - US spring wheat tour forecasts record North Dakota yield
Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected that hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 54.5 bushels per acre, the highest ever according to records going back to 1992. The figure was well above the Wheat Quality Council tour's 2023 estimate of 47.4 bushels per acre and the five-year average of 42 bushels per acre, excluding 2020.

Jul 25 - Crop tour forecasts record wheat yields in parts of North Dakota
U.S. spring wheat crops in northwest and north-central North Dakota are expected to produce the highest yields since at least 1994, the Wheat Quality Council said on an annual tour on Wednesday. Crop scouts estimated the average hard red spring wheat yield at 53.7 bushels per acre, up from 45.7 bushels in the same area last year. The five-year average for this part of the state is 40.02 bushels, excluding 2020 when no tour was held because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jul 25 - Sugar market to have smaller surplus as Brazil crop falls, says broker
The global sugar market is expected to have a smaller-than-anticipated supply surplus in 2024/25 (Oct-Sept) despite rising production in Asia, due to a significant reduction on the Brazilian crop, broker StoneX said on Wednesday. StoneX cut its projection for Brazil's Centre-South sugar output by nearly 2 million metric tons to 40.5 million tons due to this year's lower quality of the sugarcane and a smaller-than-expected cane allocation to sugar production.

Jul 24 - US spring wheat tour forecasts record yields for southern North Dakota
Scouts on the first day of an annual U.S. crop tour on Tuesday projected spring wheat in southern and east-central North Dakota will produce the highest yields in tour records dating to 1994. The Wheat Quality Council tour said participants estimated an average hard red spring wheat yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, compared to the tour's day-one findings in 2023 of 48.1 bushels.

Jul 24 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 35% but French data still lacking
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 1.44 million metric tons by July 21, down 35% from 2.21 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports for the first three weeks of 2024/25 totalled 533,177 tons, down 42% from 919,333 tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Jul 23 - MARS cuts EU 2024 maize outlook after hot weather in southeast
European Union crop monitoring service MARS on Monday cut most of its forecasts for average grain yields in the EU this year, with the sharpest drop for maize and sunflower which suffered from hot and dry weather in the southeastern part of the bloc. Grain and oilseed crops have faced adverse yet contrasting weather this year with excessive rainfall in the north hurting winter cereals, notably wheat which is on track for its smallest crop since 2020, and drought in the south hurting summer crops.

Jul 23 - Brazil sugar production estimate cut by 300,000 tons, says broker
Brazil's sugar production in 2024/25 (April-March) was revised down by 300,000 metric tons on Monday to 41.3 million tons due to lower-than-expected cane allocation to produce sugar and poor cane quality, broker Hedgepoint Global Markets said. Hedgepoint's sugar analyst Livia Coda said in a note that mills are earmarking less cane to sugar production than initially estimated, due mainly to the lower quality of the crop compared to last season as well as to the quick pace of harvesting.

Jul 22 - China June soy imports from Brazil rise 2%, customs data show
China's soybean imports from Brazil rose 2.2% in June from a year earlier, data showed on Saturday, as Chinese buyers scooped up lower-priced South American beans. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 9.72 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, compared with 9.51 million tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Jul 22 - Funds expand all-time bearish soy view and stage record meal sell-off - Braun
Speculators last week established another record net short in Chicago-traded soybeans as strong U.S. crop prospects and an oversupply of beans in China have dragged futures to near four-year lows. In the week ended July 16, money managers expanded their net short in CBOT soybean futures and options to a new high of 185,750 contracts from 172,605 a week earlier, and this was predominantly the result of new gross shorts.

Jul 19 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @181$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul-Aug @198$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-letter @380$->370$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul @920$

- Ukraine
· For the 17 days of July, Ukraine exported: corn - 1,037 thousand tons, wheat - 785 thousand tons, barley - 266.7 thousand tons, soybean - 135.9 thousand tons, rape - 58.5 thousand tons, sunflower seeds - 188.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 260.7 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15.3 thousand tons.
· In July, Ukraine's total exports were directed to Europe - 46.6% or 1,399 thousand tons, to the Middle East and Asia - 48% or 1,443 thousand tons and other destinations - 5.3% or 159.2 thousand tons.
- Europe
· According to French farmers, grain yields in the 2024/25 season will decrease by 13-20% compared to previous average annual indicators due to bad weather.
- Brazil
· According to Conab, 74% of the second corn harvest in Brazil has already been harvested, which is much higher than last year's figure of 39% for the same period.

- CORN
Current spot demand for corn in the direction of Ukrainian ports is at 174-178$ CPT ports. At the same time, sellers are gradually shifting attention to the new crop, which returned to the levels of 175$+ CPT ports, which stimulated the restoration of the activity of fixation of forward contracts.
In the western direction, corn can be sold at a price of 165€ FCA border, loaded in the gondola, with delivery in October-December.

- WHEAT
Over the past week, there has been an active demand for food wheat, stabilizing prices in the range of 194-200$ on CPT ports, depending on the protein content. At the same time, the prices of feed wheat were adjusted to 171-175$ CPT; the spread between food and feed wheat rose again to 15-20$.
As of 18.07, 10.3 million tons of wheat were collected in Ukraine. Sellers focus on the implementation of forward contracts, against the background of which the activity of the supply of new supplies is not high.

- RAPE
The resumption of MATIF stock quotes over the past few days, after a significant fall last week, significantly intensified the offer. As of 18.07, the rape was threshed with 1.8 million tons. The harvesting campaign is in progress, affecting the growth of the supply. In the regions where prices for rapeseed for the last week are in the range of 21,000-21,700 UAH with VAT delivered to the elevator, there is a significant activity of trade. Prices in the direction of the ports and the western border were also rising and were in the range of 460-470$ CPT ports and 415-420€ FCA border.

- SOYA
Extremely arid weather has recently significantly deterred the implementation of soybeans, and sellers were in anticipation of the rains to formulate further plans for implementation. At the same time, the demand for oil was also in a state of search for stabilization levels. Currently, GMO soybean is traded at 365-370$ CPT ports and 350-355€ FCA border. The premium for NE-GMO quality increased to 20-25€; until recently it was about 10€.

Jul 19 - China faces soybean glut as peak US export season nears
China is facing an oversupply of soybeans as record high purchases boost stockpiles at a time when animal feed demand remains subdued, with prices of products such as soyoil and soymeal set to sink even lower. The soybean surplus also threatens to curb China's appetite for imports in the September-December period, the peak marketing season for U.S. beans, putting further pressure on prices already near four-year lows, traders and analysts said.

Jul 19 - Global sugar market looks headed towards surplus, analysts say
The global sugar market looks increasingly likely to have a supply surplus in the 2024/25 season (Oct-Sept), despite an expected smaller Brazilian crop, as analysts believe other regions will produce more than initially expected. Broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow on Thursday adjusted upwards its view on global sugar production by 3.2 million metric tons to 189.7 million tons in 2024/25, the highest global output on record.

Jul 18 - Cooling prices chill drive to add wheat acres in US Corn Belt
A Biden administration drive to increase U.S. wheat plantings after the Ukraine war is faltering as wheat prices hover around four-year lows and exportable supplies continue to flow from the Black Sea region, curbing demand for American grain. Wheat acreage expanded last year as prices soared to a near record high after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But U.S. plantings dropped nearly 5% this year, resuming a decades-long trend that has coincided with a more recent slide in the U.S. share of the global wheat export market.

Jul 18 - Does the market finally agree with USDA on US corn yield? - Braun
Grain industry participants in recent years have criticized the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s trendline U.S. corn yields since they have been too high versus final yields for five consecutive years now. Another complaint is that USDA’s trend corn yields have been exceeding previously observed records, and the 2024 trend of 181 bushels per acre follows suit, sitting some 3.7 bpa above last year’s all-time high.

Jul 18 - Russia ships first grain from new Baltic terminal
Russia has shipped its first grain from a new terminal at the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga, the Russian agricultural watchdog told Reuters, as the country seeks to diversify its grain export routes. The first shipment of 12,000 metric tons of grain was made in June from the Lugaport terminal, owned by the Russian private transport company Novotrans. LSEG data showed the shipment is destined for Cuba.

Jul 18 - Ukraine's grain exports reach 2 mln tons so far in 2024/25, ministry says
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season rose to almost 2 million metric tons by July 17 from 1.3 million tons at the same date a season earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday. The volume included 732,000 tons of wheat, 1 million tons of corn and 254,000 tons of barley.

Jul 17 - Russian farmers fight to salvage harvest as major region cuts forecast
Under the sweltering sun and in temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius, farmers in the Rostov region, Russia's breadbasket, toil to salvage a harvest battered by heatwave, frosts and floods. Accounting for 11% of Russia's total grain harvest last year, Rostov is one of the key regions that Russia's agriculture ministry has said it is monitoring to make further adjustments to an already soft 2024 crop forecast.

Jul 17 - Colorado workers with bird flu toiled in heat, without effective protective gear
Colorado workers who contracted bird flu were working during extreme heat and under large fans, factors that made wearing protective equipment difficult and potentially contributed to their infections, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday. The CDC had previously confirmed four cases and a fifth presumptive positive case of bird flu among Colorado farm workers who were killing and disposing of chickens that had contracted the virus.

Jul 16 - Traders face $1 bln loss on faltering Ghana cocoa supply, sources say
Trading houses face losses of at least $1 billion on cocoa derivatives after major producer Ghana failed to deliver beans this year, forcing traders to liquidate short positions in a rallying market, six industry sources told Reuters. Global cocoa prices soared this year after bad weather, bean disease, smuggling and illegal gold mining reduced production and the volume of beans available in Ghana, the world's No.2 producer.

Jul 16 - US, Colorado probe additional H5N1 bird flu cases in poultry farm
Federal and state investigators in Colorado are investigating an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu on a poultry farm that has resulted in four confirmed human cases and a suspected case. The infections are the first reported cases in poultry workers in the United States since 2022.

Jul 15 - Kremlin, asked about possible resumption of Black Sea grain deal, says it does not rule anything out
Russia does not rule out any scenarios regarding the possible resumption of the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday. On Thursday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, speaking after a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said they had discussed navigational security in the Black Sea, including the grain deal.

Jul 15 - Funds build all-time net shorts in CBOT corn and soybeans - Braun
Speculators last week established record net short positions in both Chicago corn and soybean futures and options as prices tumble further amid ample supply outlooks. Money managers had reached record net shorts earlier this year, though new-crop CBOT corn and soybean futures have declined 10% and 7% since then, respectively.

Jul 12 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE_BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, December letter @175$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, aug @199$→197$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, September @200$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @430$ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @402$
· soy NE-GMO ISCC DAP center. Hungary, a letter-chest @430€
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP cx. Ukraine, Jul-Aug @21'400 UAH→21'300 UAH

- Ukraine
· Ukraine seized a cargo ship that left the Crimean port with looted Ukrainian grain, according to the Ukrainian authorities. Markets reacted rapidly with the growth of quotations.
· As of 11.07 harvested early crops: wheat - 5 714 thousand tons, barley - 2 420 thousand tons, peas - 261 thousand tons, rape 1 085 thousand tons. For comparison, last year, these indicators as of 06.07 were: wheat - 172 thousand tons, barley - 805 thousand tons, peas - 45 thousand tons, rape 86 thousand tons.
- Europe
· The European Farm Group says wheat production in the EU is expected at 117.5 million tons, a 6.4% decrease from last year.

- CORN
Hot and dry weather in some eastern regions of Europe has contributed to the intensification of buyers of corn from Ukraine. The new corn crop was actively traded last week within 170-175$ DAP seaports or by parity 190-195$ FOB seaports for the period of November-December. The western border was traded at 170-175€ against buyers of 160-165€ FCA, loaded in the euro train for October-December.

- WHEAT
The activity of wheat sellers from Russia in the Middle East and North Africa markets limits the potential for price growth. Wheat with DAP shipping was traded at 175-183$ for feed wheat and 193-199$ for food wheat depending on protein content.

- BARLEY
Barley was traded within 163-165$ DAP in the direction of the ports of the Danube and 156-160$ DAP with delivery to the sea ports of Ukraine.

- RAPE
The rapeseed quotation on MATIF fulfilled its function by purchasing a significant rapeseed offer from sellers. After reaching a peak of €508 in August rapeseed futures at MATIF on Friday, prices dropped under pressure from offers of €30 per ton to €476 as of Thursday’s close. On the physical market in the direction of seaports, the price of rapeseed with oil content of 43% (without a premium) was traded within 465-470$ against 500-505$ on Friday. On the western border, the rapeseed was traded at 435€ for oil content of 43% (+ premium), loaded into a European train.

- SOYA
After a rapid decline in world prices for soybeans, a significant supply of soybean new crop in Ukraine adjusted the prices on the physical market to 20$ per ton in all directions. The new crop was traded in the direction of seaports at 375-380$ for GMO soy with a protein of 33%. In the direction of the western border soybeans GMO was traded in the range of 360-370€ delivery Ukrainian cars.

Jul 12 - China's June soybean imports up 10.7%, buyers focus on Brazil crop
China's soybean imports in June rose 10.7% from a year earlier, a Reuters' calculation of customs data showed on Friday, as buyers stocked up on cheaper Brazilian beans ahead of the North American export season in the fourth quarter. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 11.11 million metric tons in June, compared with 10 million tons a year earlier. 

 

Jul 12 - Brazil crop agency ups corn output view, keeps exports unchanged
Farmers in Brazil, one of the world's largest food producers, are expected to harvest 90 million metric tons of second corn in the present cycle, nearly two million tons more than forecast last month, crop agency Conab said on Thursday. Farmers are still reaping their second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same fields and is mainly exported in the second half. 

 

Jul 11 - EU farming group sees soft wheat crop falling to 117.5 million tons European Union farming association Copa-Cogeca on Wednesday forecast that EU production of common wheat, or soft wheat, will fall by more than 6% this year as declines in countries like France outweigh an expected recovery in Spain. In a harvest outlook, Copa-Cogeca projected the soft wheat crop at 117.5 million metric tons against 125.5 million last year. 

 

Jul 11 - Bird flu response in Michigan sparks COVID-era worry on farms Some dairy farmers are resisting Michigan's nation-leading efforts to stop the spread of bird flu for fear their incomes will suffer from added costs and hurt rural America. The government's restrictions, which include tracking who comes and goes from farms, are rekindling unwanted memories of COVID-19 in Martin and other small towns in central Michigan.

Jul 10 - Export duty on Russian wheat declines 6.4% as of July 10, barley and corn remain zero ( Interfax-Agriculture Ministry )

- The export duty on Russian wheat has declined 6.4% to 1.701.3 rubles per tonne as of July 10 from 1.818.2 rubles per tonne during the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said. The respective duties on barley and corn have remained zero.

Duty rates are based on indicative prices of $235.40 per tonne for wheat against $236.30 per tonne the previous duty period, $175.90 per tonne for barley versus $173.70 per tonne, and $188.40 per tonne for corn against $180.60 per tonne.

The duties are valid until July 16, inclusive.

The Russian government on June 2, 2021, implemented a grain damper mechanism that stipulates floating duties on exports of wheat, corn, and barley, as well as returning the funds received from the duties in order to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly on the basis of price indicators based on the value of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange .

The government on June 30, 2022, adopted a resolution to convert the duties from dollars into rubles as of July 2022. The duty totals 70% of the difference between the baseline price and the indicative price.

The baseline price was initially 15,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and 13,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn, respectively. The government hiked the baseline price to 17,000 rubles per tonne and 15,875 rubles per tonne, respectively, as of June 2023, and then raised the baseline price once again to 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and to 16,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn, respectively, as of June 28, 2024.

Jul 10 - India boosts Russian grain imports as Modi thanks Putin for fertilizer supply
India increased its imports of Russian grain and grain products 22 fold, well above other major importers, in the 2023/24 agricultural season, according to data released during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow. Economic cooperation between the two BRICS members and major agricultural powers is high on the agenda of the visit.

Jul 10 - Robusta coffee prices surge to record high as supplies tighten
Robusta coffee prices surged to a record high on Tuesday with the global market tightened by a slowdown in shipments from top producer Vietnam. The price of robusta beans has risen 63% this year, peaking on Tuesday at $4,667 a metric ton on the London-based ICE Futures Europe market.

Jul 09 - US corn, soy, wheat ratings top expectations despite flooding
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the percentage of corn and soy crops in good-to-excellent condition on Monday, topping analyst expectations despite heavy storms in the western Midwest. With both at 68% good-to-excellent, the ratings for both crops are the highest for this time of year since 2020.

Jul 09 - Worse than expected French barley crop raises concern over wheat
The ongoing winter barley harvest in France, the European Union's largest grain grower, is showing worse than expected yields after poor weather hurt crops, raising additional concerns for the upcoming wheat crop. Wet weather and soggy fields in France since the autumn delayed plantings, hurt plant development and increased crop disease, prompting observers to regularly cut their grain crop estimates.

Jul 08 - French soft wheat yield seen plunging to eight-year low
This year's soft wheat harvest in France is expected to show a yield at an eight-year low and 11% below the 10-year average because of particularly wet weather, crop institute Arvalis and grain industry group Intercereales said on Friday. The 2024 soft wheat yield in France, the European Union's largest grower of the cereal, is seen at 6.4 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down 13% from last year, they said in a joint statement.

Jul 08 - Philippines wants to boost rice cooperation with Vietnam to ensure food security
The Philippines wants to boost cooperation on rice with Vietnam to ensure its food security, Philippine Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel said during a visit to Vietnam over the weekend. Laurel visited Vietnam's Mekong Delta province of An Giang, one of the key rice-producing areas of the Southeast Asian country, the province's People's Committee said in a statement on Monday.

Jul 08 - Australia exports 1,596,844t wheat in May (Lachstock - Grain Central)

AUSTRALIA exported 1,596,844 tonnes of wheat and no durum in May, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The May total is down 14 percent from the 1,848,534t, including 3801t of durum, shipped in April, and close to half the 3.3 million tonnes (Mt) exported in May 2023.

In containerised exports, Malaysia on 34,814t, Taiwan on 23,035t and Thailand on 21,815t were the three largest markets.

In bulk, The Philippines on 314,857t followed by Indonesia on 244,111t and South Korea on 164,780t were the biggest markets for May-shipped wheat, followed by Yemen on 155,901t.

According to Lachstock Consulting’s most recent wheat supply-and-demand report released June 28, Australia is expected to export less than 1Mt of wheat in June, which would be the lowest monthly volume since November 2020. Australia’s bulk wheat exports to China have trended down sharply in recent months, with the May total at 116,285t less than one quarter of the 516,295t shipped in April. This indicates China’s switch to new-crop Northern Hemisphere grain, including its own.
“The screws keep tightening on the major exporters’ balance sheets, with the USDA cutting Russian production by 5Mt in June and Ukraine and EU by 1.5Mt each,” the Lachstock report said.
“The USDA offset the production cuts by lowering global feed use by over 4Mt,.
“Global ending stocks were lowered by a further 1.3Mt to 252.3Mt, the lowest ending-stocks number since 2014-15, and when you exclude China, you get the lowest ending stocks since 2007-08.”

The size of the Russian crop has been hotly debated and after the initial panic over the dry spring and a number of frost events resulting in up to 10Mt in production cuts, some estimates are now being revised back up.
“The range is wide, with estimates anywhere from 75Mt to 85Mt.
“We are unlikely to know the true size of the crop until we get through the 2024-25 export program.”
Lachstock referenced Russian offers in the latest GASC tender to supply Egypt were US$38/t lower than the previous tender, suggesting Russia has “plenty of grain to move”.

Jul 05 - Argentina's soybean harvest ends at five-year record
The Argentine 2023/24 soybean season ended with a final harvest of 50.5 million tons, the highest volume recorded in the last five years, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, even after a severe summer heat wave dried crops. The exchange had initially anticipated a crop of 52.5 million tons. "The soybean harvest is considered finished," the exchange said in a weekly report, adding that the average yield hit 29.9 quintals (2.99 tons) per hectare, representing the second-highest level in the last five seasons.

Jul 05 - Tunisia offers bilateral grain purchase deal to Russia, Agroexport says
Tunisia has offered Russia a bilateral grain purchase agreement with a fixed price range and volume, Russian state agricultural export agency Agroexport said. Agroexport stated that the proposal was made during a meeting between Russian exporters and Salwa Benhadid Zouari, the head of Tunisia's state agency, the Office des Céréales.

Jul 05 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE_BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @170$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sep @195$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sep @185$
· yellow peas DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul @283$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @402$
· soybean NE-GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @390€
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP central Germany, heather-yellow @467€

- Ukraine:
- Total exports of grain, oil and other agricultural crops in June amounted to 5.345 million tons, including: corn - 2.808 million tons, wheat - 976 thousand tons, soybeans - 178 thousand tons, barley - 105 thousand tons, rape - 24 thousand tons, sunflower - 5 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 443 thousand tons, soybean oil - 28 thousand tons, cake and meal - 463 thousand tons.
- Ukraine expects a 24/25 season reduction in total exports of grains and oilseeds to 44.5 million tons (-22% compared to the 23/24 season).
- The largest decrease in exports in the season 24/25 is expected: wheat to 12 million tons (-34% compared to the season 23/24), corn to 22.5 million tons (-23%).
- In June, Ukraine's total exports were distributed: to Europe - 50.2% or 2.682 million tons, to the Middle East and Asia - 43.6% or 2.330 million tons, and other destinations - 332 thousand tons.

- Europe:
- On July 1, the EU Council entered into force the decision to increase duties on imports of grain, oil and processed products from Russia and Belarus.
- As of July 1, Ukraine has almost exhausted the annual quota of duty-free import of corn to Europe. 8,171,287 tonnes have been imported from Ukraine to the EU since the beginning of January 2024. Threshold for 2024. - 11,155,449.04 t.

- CORN
Corn market conditions began to attract more buyers. The old crop was traded at 165-170 $ in ports with delivery in July. The new crop was traded at 170 $ November-December to sea ports. The western border was traded in the range of 155-160 € loaded into a euro train. In the direction of Mon. Italy buyers bought a new crop of corn at the level of 200-205 € delivered cars. Hungary traded corn at 175-178€ FCA.

- WHEAT
The total decline in wheat production in Ukraine, pF and Europe will be about 20 million tons in 2024. Wheat quotes grew by an average of $ 5. Expectations of buyers for feed wheat - 180-183 $, for wheat with a protein of 10% - 185 $, and the food is traded at 190-199 $ in the direction of seaports with delivery in July-August.

- BARLEY
Prices for barley stabilized and began to grow from 150-155 $ to 155-162 $ in the direction of seaports.

- RAPE
As prices increase, buyers reduce appetites, and sellers reduce the offer. Sellers were looking for a queue, ready for sale after stopping the rise in prices. We are waiting for the moment of the falling market, when buyers usually disappear. Some European processors are already covered by December 2024, the rest is purchased for October-November. Prices rose under the influence of the weather in Canada.

- SOYA
Ukraine expects exports to increase by 1 million tons in the 2024/25 season relative to last year. Manufacturers actively sell soy in all directions. In the direction of the border contracts were concluded in the range of 382-400 € DAP for GMO soy.

Jul 04 - Brazil corn exports gather pace as soy season loses momentum
Brazilian corn exports for July were estimated at 3.4 million metric tons, a 2.4 million tons rise compared to June, as the shipment season gathers pace and soy exports lose
momentum, grains traders lobby Anec said on Wednesday. If confirmed, corn exports for
the month would be around 2.5 million tons below July of last year, when Brazil harvested a record second-corn harvest and China was more avidly buying the cereal from the South American nation.  

Jul 04 - Brazil ag minister says auction to import rice 'not necessary'
The Brazilian government will no longer need to buy imported rice, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro told a local TV channel on Wednesday, after the plan attracted flak from local farmers. "Prices have already dropped," Favaro said, adding the government will continue monitoring the market. "As there is no speculation, in my opinion, new auctions are not necessary."

Jul 03 - Brazil 2023/2024 second-corn crop forecast raised to 100.5 million T, Agroconsult says
Brazilian second-corn farmers are expected to reap 100.5 million metric tons of the cereal in the 2023/24 cycle, 9.9% less than the last season but more than initially projected by consultancy Agroconsult ahead of a field expedition. Brazil's second corn, which is being harvested, represents about three-fourths of the total annual output and is planted after soybeans are reaped in the same fields.

Jul 03 - India's June palm oil imports rise to 6-month high on lower prices
India's palm oil imports rose by 3% in June from the previous month to reach the highest level in six months on robust demand from refiners for upcoming festivals and as the oil traded at a discount to rival oils, five dealers told Reuters. Higher palm oil purchases by India, the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils, could support the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures that are trading near their highest level in more than two months.

 

Jul 03 - South Korea’s NOFI buys up to 60,000 T soymeal, traders say
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal on Tuesday, European traders said. If sourced from the United States or South America then 60,000 tons should be supplied or 50,000 tons if sourced from China, they said.

Jul 03 - Jordan made no purchase in tender for 120,000 T wheat, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. Offers were regarded as too high. Participants were believed to be Cargill, CHS, Viterra, Al Dahra, Ameropa and Buildcom, they said.

Jul 02 - China poised for record July soybean imports on low prices, Trump trade fears
China is likely to import record volumes of soybeans in July, drawn by lower prices and the prospect of Donald Trump returning as president and reigniting trade tensions between Beijing and the U.S., which was once China's top supplier of the oilseed. The world's biggest soybean importer has booked higher volumes in recent weeks, traders and analysts said.

Jul 02 - US corn ratings tick lower after Midwest floods, soy steady
The condition of the U.S. corn crop deteriorated in the latest week while national soybean ratings held steady after floods swamped portions of the northwestern Midwest, U.S. government data released on Monday showed. The ratings for both corn and soybeans remained the highest for this time of year since 2020, and corn and soy futures fell sharply in June on oversupply concerns.

Jul 01 - Argentina soybean sales stall in June as currency gap widens
Argentine farmers' soybean sales to commercial buyers stalled in June, the head of the country's crushing and export chamber (CIARA-CEC) told Reuters, falling 45% from May's sales as a weakening peso in informal exchange markets led farmers to hold onto their stocks of the oilseed. The South American country is one of the world's top soy suppliers and jostles with Brazil as the No. 1 exporter for processed soyoil and soy meal, which are used in vegetable oil and animal feed. June full-month soybean sales figures have not been previously reported.

Jul 01 - US corn-planting estimate increases from March, USDA says
U.S. farmers planted more corn than the government forecast in March and less soybeans, U.S. Agriculture Department data showed on Friday. The estimate helped drive corn futures to contract lows, as larger-than-expected plantings would add to the biggest U.S. grain supplies in years.