Cafés, Cacao, Azúcares, Caucho y especias
Dec 20 - Mexican sugar exports to US could cease if tariff is applied, says report
Mexican sugar exports to the United States could cease if the incoming Trump administration goes ahead with the idea of applying a 25% tariff on Mexican sugar, broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow said in a report on Thursday. President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if the countries do not change policies on trade of products such as pharmaceuticals and do not act to control illegal immigration.
Dec 17 - Cocoa Closes at New Record -- DJ Market Talk
- Cocoa futures on the ICE settled at a record-high, gaining 4% to $11,765 per metric ton. This beats the April record of $11,461 a ton. Cocoa settled higher for the past eight trading sessions. The harvest from the Ivory Coast has been strong since it started in October, says Commerzbank in a note -- but drought issues may again emerge heading into the new year. "There are also concerns that harvest volumes could level off in the coming months," the firm says. "The Harmattan winds coming from the Sahara between December and March could exacerbate the problem."
Dec 16 - Brazil's robusta coffee state expects to repeat large exports in 2025
Brazil's top robusta coffee producer, the state of Espirito Santo, expects to repeat in 2025 the large export volume it achieved this year, when the country became an alternative for supplies from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta grower. Espirito Santo state accounted for 6.6 million bags of the total Brazilian robusta exports of 8.7 million bags from January to November, according to the Coffee Commerce Center of Vitoria, the industry group gathering market participants in the state.
Dec 12 - Brazil's top coffee roasters to hike prices from next year
Brazil's top coffee roasters including JDE Peet's, are set to hike prices domestically from early next year after adverse weather caused raw bean prices to spike. Global prices for raw coffee soared to record highs this week and are up some 80% this year as adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top coffee growers, has hit the crop outlook, with consumers internationally likely to feel the pinch by as early as the end of March.
Dec 11 - India sugar output to rebound to record next year, could revive exports
India is likely to produce a record amount of sugar in the next marketing year from October after millions of farmers expanded cane cultivation, encouraged by ample water supplies and declining prices of competing crops, farmers and industry officials told Reuters. The rebound in production would allow the world's second-largest sugar producer to resume exports in 2025/26, they said, after a lack of rain cut cane yields and led to two years of restrictions.
Dec 06 - Asia coffee: Supply remains limited in Vietnam (Reuters)
Trading activity was dull in Vietnam as fresh coffee beans from the 2024/25 harvest were yet to arrive in bulk, while premiums rose in Indonesia on global cues, traders said on Thursday.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region, sold beans for 105,000-110,000 dong ($4.14-$4.33) per kg, down from last week’s 127,500-128,200 dong. “The London prices are so volatile.
Both farmers and traders are cautious with their move at the moment,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Beans may come in bulk in 10-15 days. Farmers have just harvested 30% of their crop.”
In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, many farmers experienced a decrease in yield by up to 50% due to a prolonged heat wave at the beginning of the year, the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam said in a note this week. Robusta coffee for March delivery settled up $147 at $4,751 per metric ton as of Wednesday’s close.
Dec 05 - Why are coffee prices trading near half-century highs ? (Reuters)
- Global coffee prices have soared to their highest in nearly 50 years due to poor weather in Brazil and Vietnam, forcing roasters such as Nestle to raise prices and consumers to hunt for cheaper brews amid the cost of living crisis. Spiking prices will benefit farmers with the crop this year, but challenge traders who face crippling hedging costs on exchanges and a scramble to receive the beans they pre-bought.
- WHAT DRIVES PRICES?
Production problems linked to bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam have seen global supplies lagging demand for three years. That has left stocks depleted and driven benchmark ICE exchange prices to a peak of $3.36 per lb. Last time coffee traded that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed swathes of Brazil's plantations. However, the shock to consumers was much bigger back then. If adjusted for inflation, $3.36 per lb in 1977 would be equivalent to $17.68 today. Experts are meanwhile predicting yet another year of lacklustre coffee output.
Brazil, which produces nearly half the world's arabica - high-end beans used primarily in roast and ground blends - experienced one of its worst droughts on record this year.
Although rains finally arrived in October, soil moisture remains low and experts say the trees are producing too many leaves and too few of the flowers that turn into cherries.
In Vietnam, which produces some 40% of the robusta beans typically used to make instant coffee, a severe drought earlier this year was followed by excess rains since October.
Consultancy StoneX sees Brazil's arabica output falling 10.5% to 40 million bags next year, offset somewhat by higher robusta output, thus cutting the country's overall crop by 0.5%.
In Vietnam, the crop could shrink up to 10% in the year by the end of September 2025, adding to the global robusta shortage.
- WHY ARE TRADERS WORRIED?
Brazil-based traders Atlantica and Cafebras are seeking court-supervised debt restructuring due to coffee price surges, crippling hedging costs and delivery delays.
Court-supervised debt restructuring precedes bankruptcy if the negotiation is not successful.
Traders who buy beans from local suppliers like Atlantica and Cafebras typically take short positions in the futures market to hedge their physical market exposure.
Fearing they might no longer get their physical coffee, many traders are closing out what have become loss-making short futures positions.
Closing out short positions involves buying or going long futures, which in turn drives prices even higher.
Higher futures prices then push up margin calls or downpayments that traders are required to pay to protect against trading losses, thereby creating more stress in the industry.
- IMPACT ON ROASTERS AND CONSUMERS
Surging coffee prices are a problem for roasters.
The boss of Nestle, the world's biggest coffee firm, was ousted earlier this year after the board grew unhappy about weak sales and a loss of market share due to price rises, which prompted consumers to switch to cheaper brands. Roasters tend to buy coffee many months in advance, which means consumers will likely see the price spike in 6 to 12 months.
Consumers who drink out will feel less of a pinch of today's rising prices.
Roasters like Starbucks that sell mostly to cafes should fare better as the global coffee price accounts for only about 1.4% of the total price of a typical $5 cup of coffee in a cafe.
Dec 05 - Ivory Coast cocoa exporters fear drop in supplies after poor weather.
Multinational cocoa exporters operating in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, fear a drop in supplies from farmers in the coming months after adverse weather hit crops, raising the prospect that some of them might default on contracts. So far this season, the volume of beans arriving at ports is up 34% on the same time in 2023-24.
Dec 02 - Costa Rica coffee exports jumped 79% in October (ICAFE)
Coffee exports from Costa Rica leapt 79% in October versus the same month in 2023, according to data from the national coffee institute ICAFE, which was published on Saturday. Costa Rican coffee growers exported 38,162 60-kilogram bags in October, the first month of the 2024-2025 coffee calendar, representing an increase of 16,877 bags versus the 2023-2024 coffee calendar, ICAFE said.
Nov 19 - Value of Uganda's coffee exports jump 76% in October
The value of Uganda's coffee exports jumped 76.3% in October from a year ago, helped by a surge in global prices of the commodity, the state-run regulator said. Uganda shipped 496,820 60-kilogram bags of coffee in October, earning $139.05 million, the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) said in a report published late on Monday.
Nov 12 - Brazil coffee exports hit record in October
Brazil exported 4.57 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in October, industry group Cecafe said on Monday, reaching the highest for any month on record. The shipments from Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, rose 10.5% in October from a year earlier, according to Cecafe. The previous monthly record was set in November 2020, it added.
Nov 08 - Sugar prices drop by up to 8.5% (USC)
The Utility Stores Corporation (USC) on Thursday reduced the prices of sugar across the country,
The Utility Stores Corporation has cut the price of sugar by 13 rupees per kilogram, bringing the new price to 140 rupees per kilogram, effective immediately.
Previously, sugar was being sold at 153 rupees per kilogram at the Utility Stores.
The corporation had requested sugar mills to lower the price of sugar, and in response, the sugar mill owners agreed to reduce the price by 17 rupees per kilogram.
After receiving this rebate from the mills, the Utility Stores Corporation passed on the reduction to consumers.
The Utility Stores had purchased 12,000 metric tons of sugar at a price of 137 rupees per kilogram. However, after adding additional costs, the corporation ended up paying around 152 rupees per kilogram for the sugar.
Earlier, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif has forecasted a significant increase in wheat and rice production in the province.
She highlighted a potential 30% rise in wheat output, along with a boost in rice exports, which are expected to reach $5 billion this year.
The government is also focusing on off-season cultivation of crops like tomatoes and onions, along with providing farmers with subsidized seeds, machinery, and guidance to enhance agricultural productivity.
Nov 06 - Brazil's sugar exports up to October already set a new annual record, says SECEX
Brazil's sugar exports in the year to October have already set a new annual record, surpassing the 2023 mark, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), in a global market in which India has restricted its shipments and increased imports of the Brazilian commodity.
The foreign sales bans adopted by India, the world's second largest producer behind Brazil, have also brought more demand to the South American country's mills, which account for around 70% of global raw sugar exports, Argus noted.
In addition, Indonesia has increased its purchases and has become the largest destination for the Brazilian product, surpassing China, according to data from the Brazilian government up to September. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates also increased their purchases from Brazil.
The full figures for the volumes exported in October will be released on Wednesday by the government secretariat. But the totals already computed by Secex up to the fourth week of the month indicate a total export of 31.7 million tons.
This volume exceeds Brazil's total sugar exports of 31.3 million tons for the whole of 2023, according to official figures.
Total sugar exports up to the fourth week of October had amounted to 3.29 million tons. Considering the volumes for the fifth week, shipments will be even higher. This is in addition to the 28.4 million tons registered by the country between January and September.
In addition to the additional demand, Brazil relied on stocks from last year's record harvest to increase its exports in 2024, allowing for robust shipments in the first months of the year.
The increase in exports comes amid a smaller sugarcane crop in Brazil compared to last season's record, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
"The increase in Brazilian exports in 2024 was driven by restrictions on Indian sugar exports in November 2023," Argus said in a note to Reuters.
India, the world's largest consumer and second largest producer of sugar, limited its exports after losses due to the weather.
"With India out of the international export market, Brazil sent more sugar volumes both to India and to other places that used to import from the Asian country," concluded the consultancy.
From January to September, Brazil exported 2.2 million tons of sugar to India, up 72% on the same period last year, according to data from Argus, cited in the report, and the Brazilian government.
Exports to Indonesia totaled 2.6 million tons in the first nine months of the year, roughly triple the volume shipped between January and September 2023.
Exports to the United Arab Emirates almost tripled in the nine months to approximately 2.1 million tons, compared to 731,800 tons in the same period last year, according to government data.
Egypt, meanwhile, imported 1.6 million tons of Brazilian sugar up to September, more than double the figure for the same period last year.
Nov 05 - Brazil millers say current sugar prices limit production growth
Current reference prices for raw sugar are not high enough to justify investment in new plants, and marginal gains in production from adjustments to existing plants are close to the limit, said Brazilian millers on Monday. Sugar demand continues to grow around 2% per year, while production has suffered due to factors such as climate change and biofuel blending policies such as in India.
Nov 05 - Ghana’s cocoa purchases smooth under new funding model, Cocobod CEO says
Cocoa purchases in the world's number two producer Ghana have been smooth and orderly in the 2024/25 crop season under a new funding model that requires global traders to pay upfront for part of bean shipments, the head of the sector regulator Cocobod said on Monday. Starting in September, Cocobod replaced a previous three-decade-old system where the regulator financed bean purchases from farmers with an annual syndicated loan from international banks.
Oct 28 - Brazil's sugar output up 8% in early October, UNICA says
Sugar production in Brazil's key center-south region totaled 2.44 million metric tons in the first half of October, industry group UNICA said on Friday, an 8% increase when compared with a year earlier. Sugarcane crushing in the period rose 2.75% to 33.83 million tons, UNICA said in a report.
Oct 10 - Rain-affected roads slow cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports
Damage inflicted by heavy rains on roads in Ivory Coast's west, southwest and coastal regions is hampering the harvest, drying and transportation of cocoa beans to ports, exporters and buyers have told Reuters. Six exporters, five cooperatives and six buyers said cocoa arrivals at ports are down and the quality of beans has significantly deteriorated.
Oct 04 - Delay in EU anti-deforestation enforcement leaves little time to make changes (Euractiv)
The European Commission has proposed a one-year extension to the transition period for enforcing the EU's anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR), following months of pressure from member states, trade partners, and stakeholders.
The law applies to soy, livestock, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, rubber and timber produced both inside and outside the EU.
After weeks of speculation, the Commission made a formal proposal on Wednesday (2 October) to extend the transition period by 12 months, to "serve as a phase-in period to ensure proper and effective implementation".
Thomas Waitz, the coordinator of the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament's Agriculture Committee, said the extension should allow companies to implement the rules by next year.
"With the EU Deforestation Regulation's extended deadline, all companies should be able to implement it by next year. There are no more excuses. The regulation must not be watered down by the postponement," he added.
A coalition of cocoa companies including Nestlé, Ferrero, Mondelēz, Mars, Tony's Chocolonely and NGOs such as the Rainforest Alliance and Solidaridad "strongly oppose" calls to reopen the substance of the EUDR during the upcoming negotiations.
Oct 03 - Vietnam prices ease on global cues, tepid trade (Reuters)
- Vietnam's coffee market remained tepid as traders awaited new supplies from the 2024/25 harvest, with local prices falling following a drop in Robusta futures on the ICE, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 116,200-117,200 dong ($4.70-$4.74) per kg, compared to 120,000-120,800 dong last week.
Robusta coffee LRCc2 for November delivery settled down$317, or 6%, at $4,862 per metric ton as of Wednesday's close.
"The proposed European Commission delay in the rollout of its anti-deforestation law caused a huge drop in London prices, together with supportive news about favourable weather in Brazil," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said activities should be more robust in November.
"The market still expects lower output in the 2024/25 crop," said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy chief of the MXV.
- In Indonesia, Sumatra Robusta coffee beans were offered at $200 discount to the October contract, compared with a $450 discount last week, one trader said.
Beans were quoted offered at $60 premium to the November contract, the trader said, while another trader said beans were offered at a $200 discount.
"The price adjusted because London terminal price dropped too much last night," the second trader said. Indonesia exported 19,055.1 metric tons of Sumatra robusta coffee beans in August, up 18% from the same month last year, local trade data showed.
Sep 27 - Vietnam coffee prices fall ahead of new harvest (Reuters)
Traders said the weather until now remained supportive for the trees but trade was quiet.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 120,000-120,800 dong ($4.87-$4.91) per kg, down from last week’s 123,000-123,400 dong range. Traders said the weather until now remained supportive for the trees but trade was quiet.
“Some traders have started to seek for beans but in a very cautious manner as some have been still facing financial issues since late last year when the prices started to skyrocket, while others are unsure about weather condition in the upcoming days,” a trader who is based in the coffee belt said.
The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said some coffee-growing areas had begun to harvest early ripe beans and offered them at 120,000 dong per kg.
“It is expected the prices of the new crop season would remain high as output decreases and demand from the main market, Europe, improves,” it said in a note earlier this week.
Robusta coffee for November delivery settled down$160, or 3%, at $5,152 per metric tonne, as of Wednesday’s close.
- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $200-$250 per tonne to the January contract.
- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a discount range of $450-$500 to the October contract and a discount of $250 to the November contract, a trader said. It was a $300-$400 discount range last week to the November contract. Another trader quoted a $450 discount to the November contract, compared with a $300 discount to the same contract last week.
"Buyers, both domestic and foreign ones, backed out as they have full stocks," the second trader said.
Sep 27 - Cocoa-hoarding in Ivory Coast curtailed by regulator's threat of sanctions
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council regulator has significantly curbed the hoarding of beans in September, due to the threat of sanctions against buyers and cooperatives, sources within the CCC, exporters, and buyers told Reuters on Thursday. Cocoa bean arrivals at the Ivorian ports of Abidjan and San Pedro exceeded 50,000 tons in the first three weeks of September, a significant increase from around 19,000 tons recorded for the entire month of September in 2023.
Sep 20 - Vietnam, Indonesia flip to discounts on high London prices (Reuters)
Vietnam and Indonesia have reduced coffee export prices to discounts against international benchmarks due to rising robusta prices in London and supply concerns in Vietnam. In Vietnam's Central Highlands, farmers sold beans at higher prices, but low output forecasts for 2024 may lead to the lowest export levels in 13 years. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee beans are also being offered at discounts, reflecting decreased demand from buyers. The new crop season in Vietnam is set to begin next month, with harvesting expected to start in Kon Tum.
- Vietnam and Indonesia coffee export prices slipped to discounts against the international benchmark this week as robusta prices in London rose amid supply worries in Vietnam and shrinking demands in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 123,000-123,400 dong ($5.00-$5.02), up from last week’s 121,000-121,500 dong range. According to traders, some parts of the coffee belt recorded rains due to the tropical depression that hit central Vietnam, though trees remained unharmed. New crop season in Vietnam will officially start from next month.
The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said coffee exports in 2024 may fall to the lowest level in 13 years on low output due to weather impacts.
“Some traders in the Central Highlands have started to buy beans from farmers but the volume is not much due to high prices,” MXV said in a statement.
“Normally beans will be harvested first in Kon Tum then Gia Lai and other provinces.”
Robusta coffee (LRCc2) for November delivery settled up $31, or 1%, at $5,334 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.
- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $150-$180 per ton to the November contract.
- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans offered at a discount rate of $300-$400 to the November contract, compared with the $280 premium last week “due to the shrinking appetite from buyers”, one trader said.
Another trader also quoted $300 discount to the November contract. It was a $70 premium last week.
“This is an extraordinary drop,” the second trader said.
Sep 20 - Trader Wilmar cuts its estimate for Brazil sugar output
Singapore-based commodities trader Wilmar cut its projection for Brazil's centre-south sugar production to a range between 38.8 million and 40.8 million metric tons on Thursday from its initial estimate of 42 million tons. Wilmar said it had revised its projection due to the drought and farmland fires that have hurt production in Brazil.
Sep 19 - Coffee growers look to postpone EU deforestation requirementThe world's top coffee body is set to request that the European Union postpone a requirement that imported beans come from areas not linked with deforestation, the group's head said on Wednesday. The rule, set to take effect at the end of the year, would ban sales of coffee - as well as cocoa, soy, palm oil, wood, rubber and cattle - if companies are unable to prove the product comes from an area where forests haven't been cut down in recent years.
Sep 18 - Costa Rica sees 2024/25 coffee harvest up nearly 6%
Costa Rica's 2024/25 coffee harvest should produce some 1.70 million bushels of coffee, an expert from the Central American country's ICAFE coffee institute said on Tuesday, up 5.6% from 1.61 million bushels a year ago after a difficult past year. Coffee typically produces higher yields in alternating years, and last season's harvest was down 16% from the previous period due to unusual weather and a limited workforce available to pick the coffee, also bringing exports down 6.5%.
Sep 17 - Ghana lost 160,000 tons of cocoa to smuggling in 2023/24 season, Cocobod official says
Ghana has lost more than a third of its 2023/24 cocoa output to smuggling, a top official from the cocoa marketing board (Cocobod) told Reuters, as low local prices and payment delays push some farmers to sell to increasingly sophisticated trafficking rings. Poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world's second largest and largest producers, have pushed markets into a four-year supply deficit, driving up global cocoa and chocolate prices this year.
Sep 13 - Global cocoa stocks drop to 50-year low, 2024/25 output seen recovering - ICCO
The global cocoa stocks-to-grinding ratio has dropped to its lowest in almost 50 years amid a steep decline in output which has boosted prices to all-time highs this year, but production could recover from next month, a senior industry official said on Thursday. World cocoa stocks tumbled to 1.32 million metric tons in July, from 1.79 million tons in September last year, said Michel Arrion, executive director of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
Sep 12 - Prices edge up slightly in Vietnam, crops unharmed after typhoon Yagi (Reuters)
Vietnam's domestic coffee prices rose slightly on Thursday from a week earlier, with the Central Highland coffee crops unharmed in the aftermath of typhoon Yagi, while trading is expected to remain subdued until the harvest season next month. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 121,000-121,500 dong ($4.93-$4.95) per kg, compared with 119,000-120,500 dong a week ago.
Robusta coffee for November delivery settled up $111, or 2%, at $5,008 per metric ton, as of Wednesday's close.
Typhoon Yagi, Asia's most powerful storm this year, made landfall in northern Vietnam last weekend and created huge damage, but coffee trees in the Central Highlands were unharmed.
"London prices have gained significantly since the beginning of this week, partly due to news on typhoon Yagi and data from Vietnamese authorities on lower coffee exports," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"The weather in the coffee belt remains favourable for the trees."
Another trader said farmers had started to prepare for the harvest, which begins next month, while some traders also started seeking new beans.
- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $50 per ton to the November contract, and a discount of $30-$50 per ton to the January contract.
Vietnam's coffee exports in the first eight months of this year were 1.056 million tons, down 12.1% from a year earlier, customs data showed.
- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $280 premium to the November contract, up from the $220 premium last week to the September-October contracts.
"It was because of lower coffee supplies," one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $130 premium to the November contract, a drop from last week's $200 premium as "an adjustment to the prices on the London terminal".
Sep 06 - Ghana begins pilot program to trace cocoa as EU deforestation law looms, official says
Ghana is piloting a system that traces cocoa beans from farm to port as it gears up for a new EU law banning the import of commodities linked to deforestation, a government official said on Thursday. The landmark new law, which could in time reshape global commodity markets, comes into effect end of December.
Sep 06 - Vietnam prices flat amid lacklustre trade until next harvest (Reuters)
- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices were little changed on Thursday from a week earlier, with trading expected to remain subdued until the next harvest in October, traders said.
Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,000-66,000 dong ($2.70-$2.74) per kg, slightly up from last week's 64,900-66,000 dong.
"Stocks are also running out. We are in the last month of the crop season so trade is muted," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "Beans are likely to come from November if everything goes well."
- November robusta coffee settled up $3, at $2,456, as of Wednesday's close, while the January contract settled down $7 at $2,360.
- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $30-$70 per tonne to the January contract.
- Meanwhile, Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from a week ago.
"The harvest is done now. Coffee supplies are very limited," one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $500-$520 premium this week to the October contract, the same as last week.
Aug 26 - Ghana's Cocobod to ask traders to pre-finance bean purchases in new funding model
Ghana's cocoa marketing board, Cocobod, is fine-tuning a new funding model for bean purchases that will require global traders to deposit at least 60% of the value of their forward contracts at the start of the season, two sources told Reuters. The new system will replace a three-decade old pre-export syndicated loan from international banks, which Cocobod said this week it would not raise for its 2024/25 cocoa season for the first time since 1992.
Aug 15 - Frosts hit coffee areas in Brazil
Brazil‘s coffee fields have faced the biggest cold front of the year in recent days, causing frosts in some regions, especially in the Cerrado Mineiro and Alta Mogiana. However, the overall impact was less severe compared with 2021, when frosts impacted 60% of the coffee production, according to a local farmer.
The Brazilian trader Bourbon Speciality Coffees observed that “some plants in Cerrado were damaged, especially in the higher part, but the damage was low, with a maximum estimate of 5% loss in the affected areas. Although yields may be slightly impacted, the situation is not serious.”
Coffee futures were immediately impacted by this adversity, with the September arabica contract increasing by 2.9% on the day to $2.4085 per pound on 12 August. Similarly, robusta coffee rose by 4.8% to $4,532 per metric ton.
According to a local industry source, the coffee harvest in Brazil is almost complete and the harvesting of beans that have fallen from the ground is set to begin. He explained that the dry climate during this process is important to prevent the grains from rotting on the ground. Although drought is beneficial to this process, any delay in the arrival of spring rains can cause concern in the market as it may affect the flowering of the coffee plants.
Aug 12 - Light frosts reported in some Brazil coffee areas
Farmers and local media reported the occurrence of light frosts in coffee producing areas in Brazil in the early hours of Sunday as an unusually strong cold mass for this time of the year advances from the South to central areas in the country. Farmers posted videos on social media of light frosts in the Cerrado Mineiro region, the second most important producing region of top Brazilian coffee grower Minas Gerais. There were no reports of frosts in the main coffee area of South Minas.
Aug 09 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam domestic prices rebound; supplies tighten in Indonesia (Reuters)
- Higher demand from global buyers and lack of domestic supply pushed up prices in Vietnam this week, while supply in Indonesia is expected to dip as the harvest there draws to a close.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee growing area, sold coffee at 35,000 dong ($1.51) per kg , slightly up from 34,600 dong a week earlier.
"Prices have bounced back in the past two weeks as demand remains high while stocks at farmers' warehouses have almost run out," a trader based in the province of Dak Lak said. "But I don't see any factors that can push the prices higher."
During the past two days, heavy rains have hit several parts of the Central Highlands and are expected to continue for the next few days, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Center said on Thursday. No crop damages have been reported. Traders said up to now, the weather had been favourable for baby cherries to grow well.
The next harvest season in Vietnam will start in October.
Traders in Vietnam offered the 5% black and broken grade 2 robusta at a $200 premium per tonne to the September contract, widening from $140 of last week.
The International Coffee Organization on Wednesday raised its forecast for global coffee production in 2018/19 to 168.77 million 60-kg bags from the previously expected of 167.75 million.
Meanwhile, Indonesian robusta beans were offered with $170-$200 premium to November contract, traders in Sumatra's Lampung province said. That compared to a range of $150-$200 premium to September contract last week.
Aug 08 - Asia Coffee Market Quiet in Vietnam on Bean Scarcity, Indonesia Premiums Down (Reuters)
- Coffee trading activities in Vietnam remained tepid at the end of the crop season due to a shortage of beans and high prices, while Indonesian premiums for November deliveries edged down significantly on abundant supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 122,000-123,000 dong ($4.85-$4.89), lower than 123,000-123,500 dong a week ago.
"No one is willing to buy at that high price. Those who are desperate for beans can turn to Indonesia instead," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"It is 2-3 months until the new harvest, activities will be better by then."
- Robusta coffee for November delivery settled up $96 at $4,286 per metric ton as of Wednesday's close.
"European importers are aware of the scarcity in Vietnam, although their demands have shown signs of recovery, they are not buying from Vietnam. Therefore, export activities will stay this lacklustre until the new harvest," the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam said in a note earlier this week.
In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $320 premium to the September contract, lower than last week's $470 premium, as "local supply is abundant from the main harvest season", one trader based in the region said. Another trader quoted $50 premium to the November contract, a huge drop from $403 premium last week.
($1 = 25,143 dong)
Jul 18 - Trade remains quiet in Vietnam, supplies build up in Indonesia (Reuters)-Trading activity in Vietnam remained sluggish amid low supplies and high asking prices, while premiums fell in Indonesia as supplies are building up there, traders said on Thursday.Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 127,000-127,700 dong ($5.00-$5.02) per kg, unchanged from last week."It is four months away until the next harvest however there is not much coffee left," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "Trade is very tepid as no one is keen to buy at this high price."Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $500 per metric ton to the September contract."At the moment, I don't think domestic prices can surpass the 135,000 dong per kg mark. Sluggish coffee trading activities remain an obstacle," said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy chief of Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam.Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $600 premium to the September contract this week, lower than the $750 premium to the August contract last week, a trader said. Another trader quoted a premium of $630 to the September contract, down from $770 a week ago, "as supply has improved"."There is a lot of coffee in the market thanks to ongoing harvest in the main producing areas in Lampung. The harvest is estimated to peak in July to August," the second trader added.Asep, a coffee farmer in Indonesia's Lampung province, said his coffee output rose to one ton per hectare this year, far above 200 kilograms last year as the weather was favourable.
Jul 12 - International coffee prices swelled roughly 20% last quarter amid extreme heat in major Asian coffee-growing regions, joining weather-driven rallies in such other commodities as rubber and natural gas.
Benchmark London robusta coffee futures were 18.1% higher at the end of June than at the end of March and hit an all-time high of $4,394 per tonne on June 6. Arabica coffee futures were up 20.6%.
The jump came even as the FTSE/CoreCommodity CRB Index, an international indicator for the wider commodity market, hovered around 290 at the end of June -- roughly flat compared with the end of March. Crude oil futures, a major component of the index, fell about 1% to 2% during that period.
Heat waves in Southeast Asia are the chief cause of the spike in coffee prices. Since April, average temperatures in Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines have been hotter than normal, running as high as 48 C.
Vietnam produces roughly 40% of the world's robusta coffee beans, which are used for instant coffee. But its coffee farmers face a severe drought. The dry spell has sparked concerns that the fall harvest will be impacted.
"The previous year's harvest of the robusta variety was poor, so prices have risen on concerns of a second consecutive year of lean harvests that would prolong the tight supply-demand balance," said Masanobu Takano, who works in coffee and tea at Kobe-based trading house S. Ishimitsu & Co.
The heat in Southeast Asia has also affected prices of natural rubber, a major export of Thailand and Indonesia. Rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange, an international benchmark, rose to 360.90 yen ($2.23) per kilogram on June 10, their highest point since mid-March.
Rubber production tends to slow down between March and May on reduced supply of the natural latex fluid it is made from. After this, supply usually increases, bringing prices down.
Jul 10 - Robusta coffee prices hit record high due to supply shortage (Reuters)
- Robusta coffee prices surged to a record high on Tuesday with the global market tightened by a slowdown in shipments from top producer Vietnam. The price of robusta beans has risen 63% this year, peaking on Tuesday at $4,667 a metric ton on the London-based ICE Futures Europe market. The market has been rising for about 18 months as global producers such as Vietnam struggle to keep pace with steadily rising demand. Prices climbed by 58% in 2023.
Demand for robusta has been growing as roasters switch out of arabica into the cheaper bean. Robusta is typically used to make instant coffee but it has also been increasingly added to roast coffee blends dominated by arabica.
Vietnam's coffee exports in June were just 70,202 tons, taking the cumulative total for the first half of this year to 893,820 tons, down 11.4% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Tuesday.
"This lower export performance for Vietnam during the month of June continues to reflect the tight internal market conditions within this largest robusta-producing nation," coffee trader I & M Smith said in a daily update. Coffee production in Vietnam almost tripled during the first two decades of this century, peaking at 31.58 million 60-kg bags in the 2021/22 season, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The last couple of seasons, however, have produced smaller crops with the most recent harvest estimated by the USDA at 29 million bags. A further decline is widely forecast for the upcoming 2024/25 season.
Jul 09 - Demand for coffee has continued to grow globally despite rising prices (ICO-Reuters)
The International Coffee Organization this month estimated a rise of 2.2% in global coffee consumption in the 2023/24 season.
Trader I & M Smith said on Tuesday that many independent forecasts saw demand continuing to grow in 2024/25, albeit at a slightly slower pace of 1.25%.
"This growth is primarily driven by relatively new coffee consumer markets and producer countries such as China, India, Indonesia, the Middle East and Vietnam who have registered increased internal coffee consumption," the trader said.
The challenges faced by Vietnamese robusta producers have created an opportunity for Brazil, which grows mostly arabica beans but has been expanding production of robusta, a variety more resistant to dry weather.
"Brazil now is planting a lot and probably in a couple of years will became the most important country as regarding the production of robusta, more important than Vietnam," Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of coffee company Lavazza told Reuters.
Brazil produced around 21.5 million bags of robusta coffee last year, a near record, and is harvesting what is expected by most analysts to be a larger crop, despite some early complaints by farmers about yields.
"I know that with these kind of prices they (Brazilian farmers) are running like crazy to produce more and more robusta," Lavazza said.